Fantasy Football: Week 11 Daily Fantasy Football Picks
Niner Noise fantasy football blogger JD Leidy uses FantasyOMatic’s algorithm along with player pricing from FanDuel (and his gut too) to select winning Week 11 daily lineups.
If you’ve been reading this column for a while, then you know that we’ve been building daily fantasy teams with the help of an algorithm, in the hopes of landing a ticket to the World Fantasy Football Championships.
So, each week we cross-reference the player rankings from the free FantasyOMatic online algorithm with the pricing data from FanDuel and build three different rosters:
- An algorithmically-selected, value-optimized (ASVO) one
- An algorithmically-selected, non-value-optimized (ASNO) one
- A purely instinct-based one
Note: Additional details on the exact construction methodology are featured in this Week 6 article.
All that said, if you’ve been reading this fantasy football column regularly, you must also be a fan of losing money. Because, so far, our lineups have definitely lost more than they have won. And Week 10 was no exception.
Here’s how our lineups performed last week (or didn’t, as the case may be):
Wow… 81.78? That’s putrid by any measure.
In fact, of the 27,586 entries in the $120K Sun NFL BIG $5 Double Up (Top 12,000 Win), that lineup came in No. 27,415. I mean, you almost have to try to be that bad.
That’s what you get for banking on the Bears. Never a smart call.
For those who are curious, the winning threshold for last week’s 50/50 was virtually identical to last weeks at 128.28.
So, although our Pure Instinct lineup cleared our theoretical 50/50 payout bogey of 110 points (barely), we still got no monetary love.
And as always, here’s what the winning squad for our 50/50 contest in Week 10 looked like:
So, not only was starting a bunch of Bears a bad call, but starting the opposing defense, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, was worth a cool 24 points. Yeah. We’re that good.
Moreover, we’re never going to get to the WFFC at this rate. All of the direct qualifiers are $12 or more, and we can’t even build up enough bankroll to sign-up three teams in a single week.
What to do, you ask? Well, we clearly need to do what any inveterate gambler would do… double down, of course.
So this week, we’re entering our lineups in the $21K Sun NFL BIG $5 Triple Up (Top 1,400 Win), where landing in the top third pays three-to-one.
What about our past track record would suggest we have any chance of landing in the top one-third? Not a damn thing. But, there’s nothing to say that it can’t happen.
So, we begin with our Algorithmically-Selected, Value-Oriented Lineup… And away we go.
Lineup No. 1
Recall the rules for selecting our ASVO lineups are as follow:
- Scan the paired data from FantasyOMatic (FOM) and FanDuel for relative value among top 10 players across all position groups
- Select a value-oriented quarterback and wide receiver (or tight end) stack, with the idea that successful QB/Receiver combos allow owners to cash in twice on the same touchdown
- Select a top running back, a top receiver and a defense from the remaining top 10 lists
- Select as many FOM top 10 players as possible at each of the remaining open positions, without going over the $60,000 salary cap
The place to start is behind center. So, here are the Week 11 QB rankings:
So, our choices are Bortles, Kaepernick, Dalton and Smith. I have to admit, I’m not exactly salivating.
That said, let’s take a look at their respective receiving options and see if we have any reasonable pairings:
Now that’s what I call slim pickin’s.
Hardly any QB-Receiver stacks even exist this week, let alone highly-rated, value-oriented ones.
That said, we do have a couple QB-tight end options in Alex Smith paired with Travis Kelce and Andy Dalton throwing to Tyler Eifert.
Dalton is ranked two higher than Smith (No. 6 v. No. 8) and Eifert is only one notch below Kelce.
So, in keeping with that exceedingly scientific analysis (and because we got burned by Smith & Co. last week), let’s roll with the Dalton-Eifert duo as the foundation of our ASVO squad.
Lineup No. 1 Cont.
It’s now time to select a top-tier running back, defense and tight end as ranked by FOM.
Here are the top ten FOM running backs in Week 11:
So Ezekiel Elliot tops the chart and he’s coming off of another monster game. He’s in the mix.
As is speedy wideout T.Y. Hilton who’ll be starring in what looks to be a potential barn burner versus the Tennessee Titans.
In terms of our defensive selection, FOM has made it a piece of cake this week. Minnesota’s defense is not only ranked No. 1, it’s also the cheapest of the top five ranked D’s.
Just in under the cap.
I like the way Dez Bryant has been playing, and Steve Smith Sr. (who cares what you named your kid, by the way… especially when it’s that unoriginal) has still got some giddy-up.
And there isn’t a living, breathing human that doesn’t think starting LeGarrette Blount against the league’s worst run defense, the San Francisco 49ers, is a good idea. Yes, they held RB David Johnson to a modest yardage total last week, but he still found pay dirt twice.
Game flow is always an issue, but Blount is surely good for 100 yards and at least one touchdown. Bank it.
And why Cairo Santos? Because he’s Brazilian, of course. And Brazilian’s love to party, both on and off the field, right?
Lineup No. 2
Our ASNO (algorithmically-selected, non-value-oriented) fantasy football lineup will feature the top-rated passer and receiver combo, irrespective of price.
That leads us to the much heralded combination of Big Ben Roethlisberger and his primary pass catcher, Antonio Brown. These two are always a good bet, and against the woeful Cleveland Browns, they feel like stone cold locks.
Adding in the top runner, tight end and defense gets us to this point:
So, we’ve spent a pretty penny so far, meaning we’ll have to tighten our proverbial belts a bit to squeeze in the rest of our players.
However, due to some really favorable value-oriented FOM rankings, the rest of our lineup doesn’t actually look that dissimilar to Lineup No. 1:
Both Blount and “The Ancient One,” Steve Smith (don’t forget the Sr.) are once again featured. According to FOM’s algorithm, they are great values.
Our final receiver is FOM’s No. 8 ranked jock, Jordan Matthews. He’s having a terrible fantasy season, and if left to my own devices, I would not reach for him. But, he’s the highest ranked FOM receiver that fits within our extremely stringent salary constraints.
So Matthews is also in, as is that lineup.
Lineup No. 3
Our last lineup, as it is each week, was hatched in the deep recesses of my inner sanctum. Wow! Doesn’t that sound filthy?
What I mean is simply that we used no algorithm here, just pure instinct in the player selection… And here’s where we ended up:
This week’s Pure Instinct lineup seems strong, if I do say so myself.
I love the way Mariota is playing right now, and pairing him with the cheap, yet effective Rishard Matthews has its advantages. Namely, we now have more salary to splurge on the likes of Le’Veon Bell, Jordy Nelson and even Allen Robinson (another comer of late).
And don’t sleep on Martellus Bennett this week. With Gronk out following last week’s jackhammering by Seattle safety, Earl Thomas, Bennett is due for an uptick in targets. And, given that the opponent is the San Francisco 49ers, said targets are likely to be productive.
The Fish (Miami’s D) against a rookie QB in Jared Goff. That seems too easy. And I even like Succop (albeit, I’m not fond of his hiney-kissing surname).
The Final Lineups
Week 11 is almost here, and if you’re looking for some Daily Fantasy Football action, here are three remarkable rosters to consider starting.
Two of them were crafted using the rankings featured on fantasy algorithm site, FantasyOMatic, while the third was minted solely using intuition:
Well, my gut tells me that not all $60,000 teams are created equal this week.
In turn, I’m placing confidence that reverse-cascades from right to left as we work our way back to our ASVO lineup.
So go Mariota. Go Miami Dolphins. Go Succop, even!
And, as always, go reader! Enjoy Week 11.