Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys are on the verge of disaster

Published Dec. 14, 2016 2:51 p.m. ET

Chris Chase

On Sunday night, the Dallas Cowboys suffered a three-point road loss to an 8-4 division rival that'd already beaten them this season. The defeat dropped Dallas to 11-2, a record they've had just three times since the creation of the 16-game schedule and had once in a Super Bowl season. Their rookie quarterback had a rough game but, compared to the one had by veteran Russell Wilson on the same day, was hardly a blip. Frankly, if Odell Beckham didn't have Carl Lewis speed, Dallas probably would have won comfortably and have pretty much wrapped things up in the NFC two weeks before Christmas.

But Dallas didn't win, didn't wrap up the NFC and, somehow in one 60-minute stretch, went from a team with the best record in the NFL to one that has serious questions about whether it will even earn a bye in the NFC playoffs. Throw in some typical Jerry Jones comments about his non-existent quarterback battle (if Dak Prescott can't handle his owner talking about a backup quarterback then Dak Prescott is not a quarterback who can lead Dallas to where it wants to go), a week of breathless commentary from the media and the suddenly-crushing pressure of another nationally televised showdown and, yeesh, talk about a rough loss.

What does it all mean for the Cowboys? Are they just in theoretical, crazy scenario-driven danger or are they in actual, oh-my-goodness-it-could-all-fall-apart danger? It's not quite either, yet. By Sunday night, it could easily be the latter. Here's why.

(USA TODAY Sports images)

1. We're ignoring the Falcons (8-5), Bucs (8-5), Seahawks (8-4-1) and Redskins (7-5-1) in these scenarios. Washington can't pass the Cowboys, and the others would need to win out while Dallas loses out. Atlanta and Tampa are unlikely to finish the year on a three-game kick (for Tampa, it'd end up being eight straight wins), but the Seahawks could easily do so, playing teams with five, four and one victories in the last three weeks. But even if that happens, Dallas would have to lose out, and if that happens, the Cowboys have a lot bigger problems than playoff positioning. So, while the Bucs and Falcons are still alive to pass Dallas, it'd take a miracle swing, like the Panthers making the playoffs. Thus, it comes down to two teams: New York and Detroit.

2. Here are their remaining schedules:

Dallas (11-2): Tampa (8-5), Detroit (9-4), at Philadelphia (5-8)

New York (9-4): Detroit (9-4), at Philadelphia (5-8), at Washington (7-5-1)

Detroit (9-4): at New York (9-4), at Dallas (11-2), Green Bay (7-6)

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

3. Scenario A: Dallas wins out or goes 2-1 over the final three weeks. Then there's no problem at all. The Cowboys clinch home field in either of those scenarios and would then host what's going to be a competitive divisional playoff against either (listed in order of teams Dallas doesn't want to see): New York, Seattle, Atlanta, Washington, Tampa and Detroit. There are going to be a number of teams in the wild-card round with the capabilities of knocking off Dallas, including one that's defeated the 'Boys twice, another that narrowly lost twice and, quite possibly, a team that will beat them on Sunday.

Scenario B: If Dallas loses to Tampa, then ship be sinking. Whether it goes all the way down like the Titanic or stays up long enough like the Andrea Doria to allow the Cowboys (and George Constanza) to save themselves is the question. If Dallas loses Sunday night, it will drop to 11-3 on the season. Because New York and Detroit play on Sunday, one of those teams is going to move to 10-4, just a game behind the 'Boys and lurking in the darkness.

Scenario B2: If the Lions beat the Giants (still assuming Bucs defeat the Cowboys), they're one game behind Dallas and happen to play in Week 16, oh yeah, Dallas. That's how quickly things can go south for the Cowboys: Lose to the Bucs (feasible), see the Lions beat the Giants (probably a 50/50 shot) and all of the sudden they're playing for their home-field lives on the day after Christmas at Jerry World. If the Lions win, the teams are tied at 11-4 and Detroit controls its own destiny because of the head-to-head tiebreak. You'd still rather be Dallas in that scenario: They face a playing-out-the-string Eagles team in Week 17 while Detroit gets a Packers team that could be in contention for a playoff berth. Regardless, the home-field that once felt inevitable is now anything but.

(Getty Images)

Scenario B3: If the Giants beat the Lions (continuing to assume Bucs defeat Cowboys), the Giants move to one game behind Dallas in the NFC East holding that crucial tiebreaker due to their season sweep. Dallas has their game against Detroit, now 9-5 in this scenario, while the Giants play that reeling Philly squad that nonetheless came within 14 yards of beating the Redskins on Sunday. If the Giants gain a game in Week 16, their NFC East future is in their own hands. If they stay even, it'd come down to Week 17 and the Giants would need to beat the Redskins while the Eagles spoil the Cowboys' year by sending them to the wild card.

That's how tenuous the Dallas lead is. All of these are hypotheticals, of course, but they're legit hypotheticals. Dallas plays teams with the second- and fourth-best records in the NFC in Week 15 and 16 and a divisional rival always game for an upset in Week 17. The good news for Dallas fans is that they might not have to wait long for a resolution. A win over Tampa and, no matter what Detroit does against the Giants, the Cowboys are in nearly unbeatable shape for home field and a division crown. But lose to Tampa and see the Giants win again and all of the sudden a run to the Super Bowl that was supposed to take two home wins might necessitate three victories on the road, all for a team reeling from an invincible 11-1 start.

And we haven't even gotten to Tony Romo.