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The 2017 Eastern Conference Finals will feature the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers taking on the Boston Celtics. Which team has the advantage and will advance to the NBA Finals?
This is exactly where the Cleveland Cavaliers were supposed to be: the Eastern Conference Finals. At times it seemed they may not make it this far, as turnovers and defensive lapses dropped Cleveland behind the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference standings. But an 8-0 romp through the first two rounds spoke against their supposed vulnerability.
Boston had its stumbles in the postseason, going down 0-2 against the Chicago Bulls before racing back to win in six games. The Washington Wizards took them to seven games and pushed hard late into the fourth quarter. Isaiah Thomas has had to deal with the inconsolable loss of his sister prior to the team's first playoff game. Yet they persevered and are still standing even when teams around them have failed.
While Boston will have home-court advantage throughout the series, the Cavaliers are the favorite. The defending champions have the league's best player performing at a level as good if not better than any postseason that came before. For the ninth time in the last 11 seasons, LeBron James is playing the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards were both trendy picks to make it this far, and each showed flashes of why they deserved to be there. But in the end the best two teams in the East will meet in the conference finals, the fourth consecutive time that will happen in the East.
Wednesday night's game is not the teams' first meeting of the season. The first three meetings were all decided by six points or less, with the Cavaliers taking two and the Celtics one. The lone blowout – in Cleveland's favor – was their final matchup of the season. Whether the blowout victory has more predictive influence than the three tight games will be proven out.
That proving begins Wednesday, May 17, when the Boston Celtics host the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
Point Guard
Isaiah Thomas (BOS) vs. Kyrie Irving (CLE)
This position may be the most star-laden one of the conference finals. Isaiah Thomas has been otherworldly throughout the postseason, willing Boston to a number of key wins. Even with the unspeakable emotion swirling around the loss of his sister, Thomas came out each and every night and pushed the Celtics to advance.
On the other side is Kyrie Irving, he of the shot heard 'round the world. Irving went from LeBron sidekick to NBA star in the wake of his dagger three-pointer hoisted in last year's NBA Finals. He has continued the shot-creation magic this year, and in that area alone the difference between Irving and Thomas is infinitesimal. But Thomas is a better passer, a better off-ball player, and a more willing defender, and of the two deserved MVP consideration.
Advantage: Boston
Shooting Guard
Avery Bradley (BOS) vs. J.R. Smith (CLE)
Talented playmaker at the point? Check. Defensive 2-guard who can space the floor and guard the other team's best backcourt player? Check. Both teams have very similar backcourts, with Kyrie and Isaiah as defensively-challenged options at the 1. Avery Bradley and J.R. Smith are the starters at the 2 for their respective teams.
Smith has come a long way as a defender, now serving as a positive piece of Cleveland's ability to defend the past few seasons. That is paired with his shooting, one of the best in the league, and he is a perfect piece in the puzzle Cleveland is building. Bradley is not the same level of poor shooter he once was, but he is one of the very best guard defenders in the entire league, and in addition to his shooting he brings playmaking and off-ball cutting skills that Smith does not.
Advantage: Boston
Small Forward
Jae Crowder (BOS) vs. LeBron James (CLE)
The Boston Celtics have one of the league's greatest steals on their roster. Forward Jae Crowder, a throw-in as part of the Rajon Rondo deal, is signed for a mere $7 million annually. Crowder's main attribute is his defense, as he brings above average strength and basketball intelligence to the table in guarding positions 1-4. On offense he can space the floor, but also is developing an area of expertise in handling the ball and making plays.
The problem for Boston is that the Cleveland Cavaliers also have one of the league's best contracts in the league – and it's a max deal. LeBron James is still the greatest basketball player on the planet, able to leverage unheard of health and stamina into two-way dominance. With and without the ball James opens up an offense and makes the opposing defense cower, while on defense his transition ferocity still erases opportunities for the other team. Our apologies to Mr. Crowder.
Advantage: LeBron James
Apr 5, 2017; Boston, MA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers forward Kevin Love (0) works the ball against Boston Celtics center Al Horford (42) in the first quarter at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Power Forward
Al Horford (BOS) vs. Kevin Love (CLE)
In yet another area the Celtics and Cavaliers see themselves built from familiar stock, as both teams deploy similar players at the 4. The Cavs have All-Star Kevin Love, acquired in the wake of James' decision to return home to Cleveland. While his role of late has been as an elite stretch-4 standing behind the arc and opening up space for James and Irving to work with, earlier in his career Love carried the full offensive burden and thrived under the workload. Despite the reduced role, Love is putting up solid numbers.
But he neither carries the workload nor serves as a linchpin on defense. Boston's Al Horford is one of the league's best shooting bigs, hitting from the midrange and beyond the arc, but couples that with some dynamic passing. If that wasn't enough, on defense Horford has the foot speed to stay with smaller players and the lift to protect the rim. Outside of one famous possession, Love is not quick enough to switch onto guards with regularity. While Horford's weakness is one of Love's strengths – defensive rebounding – the two-way versatility of Horford gives him the leg up.
Advantage: Boston
Center
Amir Johnson (BOS) vs. Tristan Thompson (CLE)
The Cleveland Cavaliers have had a preferred starting lineup for two seasons now, and the center of those lineups is Tristan Thompson. A onetime power forward, Thompson combines incredible hustle with a nose for the basketball, sucking in rebounds on both ends of the court. His quick hands generate steals and blocks, and the non-shooter can put up points based on setups and putbacks.
The Celtics have rotated their starting lineup a few times, including in the Chicago series earlier this postseason. But their most common starting lineup features Amir Johnson at the 5. While he does not get enough credit for his flexibility on defense, Johnson is not a singular force on the boards as Thompson is. This gives the younger player an edge because of the presence of an elite skill, something Johnson lacks entirely.
Advantage: Cleveland
Bench
One of the difficulties in fielding a star-heavy team such as the Cleveland Cavaliers is putting together a strong bench, because players flee looking for a pay increase and the team is hard-pressed to replace them with the resources available. General manager David Griffin deserves recognition for the work he has done in filling out the bench behind the team's usual starters, providing head coach Tyronn Lue with options come the postseason.
That being said, Danny Ainge is not a pushover in filling out a roster either, and Brad Stevens has been brilliant in developing a scheme to best utilize the roster. No player on the Cavaliers' bench would seem capable of dropping 26 points in a Game 7, which is what Kelly Olynyk did Monday night. Marcus Smart unlocks a top level of defense with his toughness, Terry Rozier is one of the best bench players in the league this postseason, and Jaylen Brown is a top-three pick already contributing as a rookie.
Advantage: Boston
Coaching
Brad Stevens (BOS) vs. Tyronn Lue (CLE)
Ty Lue has a ring as a coach, leading the Cleveland Cavaliers to the promised land. That is an accolade that should not be overlooked. He has managed a veteran roster well, and made adjustments necessary to defeat the Golden State Warriors in last season's NBA Finals showdown. While it is absolutely not the hardest job in sports, Lue puts work into his role as manager of personalities and skillsets.
Stevens has been in an ever-fluctuating state in Boston, with the roster constantly changing. Although he has not yet won a ring, nor been to the NBA Finals, Stevens is regarded as one of the brightest minds in the league. His "ATOs" – after time-outs – are some of the best plays in the league, and generate good looks almost every time. Having LeBron James go out and destroy worlds make for an easier strategy, but Stevens has done a better job of managing everything thrown at him as a coach.
Advantage: Boston
Key Matchup
LeBron James is a strong on-ball defender, with the size and quickness to stay with opposing players when they have the ball, and the strength not to get backed down if they take it to the post. But he becomes something special when allowed to rove the court, leaving his man to come and swallow up an action taking place elsewhere.
The key matchup of this game will be LeBron James vs. Jae Crowder. If Crowder can slow James down then it forces other players to make plays – certainly possible on this roster, but a step more difficult than simply standing nearby watching the ball go in the net. The key area where Crowder can help is by scoring early in the series and forcing James to guard up on him. If James stays home on Crowder, players such as Thomas and Marcus Smart have more room to use in the middle of the court.
The Celtics Will Win If…
They leverage their deeper roster into a number of lineup changes, keeping Cleveland guessing, and slow down the Cavaliers' offensive attack. On offense Thomas needs to be the game's leading scorer every single night.
The Cavaliers Will Win If…
They stay healthy, care about defense and run the offense through LeBron James. Beyond that, the specific X's and O's could result in advantages for the more veteran Cavaliers roster.
Prediction
The Cleveland Cavaliers will win in 6 games.
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