Let’s make this much clear: Kyle Larson is the overwhelming favorite to win Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway (1:30 p.m. ET, FS1).
Larson, last weekend’s winner at Michigan International Speedway, put his Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet on the Sonoma pole Saturday, flanked by teammate Jamie McMurray. And Larson was fastest in final practice on Friday. His confidence right now is sky high.
Realistically, one of these two should win, and if I were a betting man, I’d put my money on Larson. But if one of them doesn’t win, who will? Here are five drivers with a shot to take the win on the 1.99-mile Sonoma road course.
On Saturday afternoon, Harvick won the Carneros 200 K&N Pro Series race at Sonoma, so he got a little extra track time this week. More to the point, perhaps, he’s posted four top-five Cup finishes here already, with a best of seventh. He’s going to be tough in this race.
Allmendinger’s only career Cup victory came on the Watkins Glen International road course, and he’s finished as high as seventh here. A native of nearby Los Gatos, California, Allmendinger qualified fifth here and has looked good this weekend.
Yes, Junior. The same driver who used to loathe road racing has suddenly become pretty good at it. Over the last three season, Earnhardt has the best average finish of any Cup driver at Sonoma. And this weekend, he’s made it clear that he’s happy with his No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet. Besides, this is his last appearance here and something special could happen.
If Kyle Larson hadn’t been so busy stealing headlines this year, Truex might be the man. Like Larson, Truex already has two victories this season. On top of that, Truex has led a series-high 938 laps, or 20.1 percent of the laps run this season. The New Jersey native is a past Sonoma winner and will start third on the grid after an impressive qualifying run in the No. 78 Furniture Row Racing Toyota.
Yes, Busch is frustrated by the fact that he’s come close to winning a handful of races this year but has a zero in the victory column so far. Busch is a two-time Sonoma winner and he has four Cup road course victories, three more than anyone else in the field on Sunday. He’ll start fourth and have a fast Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota.