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The Cleveland Indians found their power bat, signing Edwin Encarnacion for far less than anyone expected two months ago.
The biggest power bat on the free agent market finally found a home Thursday night as the Cleveland Indians agreed to terms with 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion. According to Ken Rosenthal, the deal is guaranteed for three years and $60 million, with a $25 million option for 2020 that is paired with a $5 million buyout.
Second correction (apologies): Sources say Edwin with #Indians is three years, $60M, including $5M buyout. Option valued at $25M. Max: $80M.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 23, 2016
Encarnacion will slot right into the opening left by the departed Mike Napoli, sharing first base and designated hitter duties with Carlos Santana. With a glut of power hitting first basemen on the market, Encarnacion saw his market value fall much lower than expected. MLB Trade Rumors had projected Encarnacion to land a contract for four years and $92 million; he will be guaranteed only two-thirds of that in his new deal.
Encarnacion is coming off a 2016 season with the Toronto Blue Jays that saw him reach career highs in many statistical categories, including home runs, RBI, hits, walks, total bases, runs scored, games played, plate appearances, and at bats. Now he makes the move to the AL Central and the team that eliminated the Blue Jays from the ALCS. Guaranteeing three years to a hitter entering his mid-30s (Encarnacion turns 34 next month) as well as surrendering a first-round draft pick is often risky, especially considering the hitter in question has played 150 games just twice in a 12-year career. However, if Encarnacion can reproduce close to his average line of .272/.367/.544, 146 OPS+, 39 HR, 110 RBI from the past five seasons, the Indians will have themselves a bargain.
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Encarnacion is a late bloomer. While he made his major league debut with the Reds in 2005 as a 22-year-old and was the centerpiece of the 2009 trade that sent an aging Scott Rolen to Cincinnati from Toronto, Encarnacion didn’t fully come into his own as a power hitter until the 2012 season at age 29. In his first seven seasons Encarnacion was not once worth two wins above replacement; in his last five seasons Encarnacion was not once worth less than 3.5 wins above replacement. Fangraphs pegged his value over the past five seasons at just over $30 million, so even some minor regression would keep this signing a great one for the Indians.
Cleveland is returning most of the key pieces from its 2016 pennant-winning roster. Encarnacion joins a potent lineup featuring Santana, Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. While the Boston Red Sox made headlines this offseason with the addition of Chris Sale to a rotation that already featured David Price and Rick Porcello, the Indians already feature a triumverate that, when healthy, could be just as potent in Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar.
The Indians now have a better lineup and will have a healthier pitching rotation than when they lost Game 7 of the World Series. The Cubs and Red Sox will enter 2017 as strong favorites to meet in the next Fall Classic, but Encarnacion is the bat Cleveland needed to ensure they remain firmly in the mix.
Now that Encarnacion has signed, expect further dominoes to fall across Major League Baseball as the Hot Stove flame has once again been ignited.
