Boston Red Sox: What is the trade value of their players?
Despite the recent disappointing finish to 2016 the Boston Red Sox fans still have plenty to be thankful for – especially some valuable players.
Time to express some thanks that go beyond the turkey sacrificing itself for my dining pleasure. The thanks are that I do not wake up each baseball morning as a fan of one of about 20 other teams that will go nowhere and continue to go in that direction. Even the occasional successes such as the Royals eventually succumb to failure.
As an older Red Sox fan, the past season is a disappointment, but I am not on any hotline for intervention after a disappointing finish to 2016. I am not curled up in a fetal position, nor do I seek grief counselors or purchase a therapy animal. I have been down that road many times. The painful journey for Red Sox fans in say the age 35+ category is there. The other younger fans are in a far better situation.
A recent article highlighted the Detroit Tigers and the prospect of trading some of their talents – talent that is considered baseball middle age or beyond and comes with an exorbitant price tag. That price tag is first absorbing contracts and each contract is pricey – this is not the Wal-Mart jewelry department, but Tiffany’s.
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The second price tag is the exchange of baseball bodies. The Tigers want talent that is young and controllable. The Tigers witnessed the purge in New York during the summer when the Yankees cleaned house and brought in enough quality prospects to elevate their farm system top possibly the best in baseball.
The Red Sox have an abundance of minor league talent and there are probably five players that one can unequivocally state will most likely be impact players someplace – hopefully Boston. Boston also is in a safe place with an abundance of young players that is perched on the roster. What is that roster depth worth? Start with Mookie Betts. What would you want in exchange?
For Betts, I would expect Mike Trout – simple as that. Is it so outrageous to have a superstar traded for another? Just think Frankie Frisch for Rogers Hornsby as one example and both were in their prime. There was even discussion of trading Ted Williams for Joe DiMaggio. For Betts, I would expect Trout.
Jackie Bradley is an All-Star and one of the truly magnificent glove men in baseball. Bradley can also hit so the talk was a package for Chris Sale. A package? That would be a very small addition to create a package and not the line of prospects that Chicago supposedly wanted earlier in 2016. In fact, Rick Porcello would be too much even up for Sale.
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What would Xander Bogaerts bring? A top tier shortstop who may develop into a 30+ home run hitter. I would expect players equal in return. If it was prospects I would certainly expect the top three in just about any system. That may even be cheap.
This could go a considerable distance since Andrew Benintendi certainly has a significant upside. David Price has an exorbitant contract, but if a team wanted him the return would be substantial. Same with Dustin Pedroia – who is still one of the best and signed into the next decade.
The point is the Red Sox are simply loaded. This team is in a wonderful place with such a unique blend of veteran talent and young players who still may not have reached their full potential. You can see that by playing hot stove trade scenarios on just what you could get in return.
There are various trade analyzers that one can use – especially fantasy players – to determine the value of a trade. But even a seemingly unbalanced trade at first glance can be deceiving. I certainly could build a strong case for a player with a WAR of 7.0 being less valuable than one with a WAR of 3.0. Needs often determine value.
That, however, is just a sidebar. The Red Sox are loaded with giis players and a few great ones. . Feel privileged that our team has such balance – possibly only equaled by the Chicago Cubs. That there are no fire sales happening and trading of young players is done judiciously.
Say some thanks that Harry Frazee is no longer upright or the Red Sox talent would be in New York.