.vresize.36.36.medium.0.png){kind=small}
.vresize.36.36.medium.0.png){kind=small}
Atlanta Braves vs. the NL East in 2017: New York Mets.
Nov 1, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; A general view of a banner outside of Citi Field before game five of the World Series between the Kansas City Royals and the New York Mets. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Continuing to check into the NL East and guess what lies in store for the rivals of our Atlanta Braves. Today we have the New York Mets.
Atlanta Braves fans love to hate the Mets, though lately it’s been more of a series of LOLs more akin to the Marlins that we’ve seen from this organization. Still, they aren’t going to just roll over and yield this season.
Maybe.
The gang from Gotham has a lot of the same look-and-feel that we’ve seen over the last year-plus. Actually it’s more than just that. While the Nationals are out there begging players to work for them, the Mets are… doing virtually nothing.
And many of their fans seem to be okay with that.
I’m looking through the Mets’ transactions pages and here’s what I’m seeing:
That’s truly it. No major league acquisitions other than Cespedes. None.
This is absolutely remarkable for a team with depth issues, bullpen issues, and defensive issues.
Of all teams in the NL East, if there’s any that looks like a train wreck waiting to happen, it’s the Mets.
Let’s break it down… since this club seems unwilling to face these concerns for themselves.
Jul 15, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; New York Mets relief pitcher Logan Verrett (35) and starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) and starting pitcher Steven Matz (32) ad starting pitcher Jacob deGrom (48) and bullpen catcher Dave Racaniello (53) walk together prior to action against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The New York Mets won 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Unbalanced Line
Right now, when looking at the MLB.com edition of the Mets’ depth chart, something should strike you as odd. It’s the pitchers.
At the moment, the chart lists 7 starters (good for them), yet only 6 relievers (bad for them).
Let’s also add the fact that their closer – Jeurys Familia – is going to be suspended by Major League Baseball for a while. My over-under number on that penalty is 50 games.
But why? The charges against him were dropped!
So were the ones against Jose Reyes. Yet MLB still found enough smoke to conclude there was a domestic violence fire sufficiently hot enough to give him a 51 game suspension in 2016.
Aroldis Chapman didn’t actually do anything, yet was still slapped with a 30-game penalty. Hector Olivera did – and was convicted; he landed an 82 game suspension.
Since MLB and arbitration and negotiation is all about precedents, something in the 50-55 game range – one-third of the season – is probably what Familia will be facing.
Even without considering Familia’s plight, the bullpen is clearly short. I suppose they expect that every starter will go 8 innings or more for every game.
About Those Starters
The Mets rolled 12 starting pitchers out in 2016. Okay, they weren’t the Braves (16), but they weren’t the Mets, either.
Fortunately for them, 4 of the starters used the most threw to ERAs of 3.50 or less… and that’s clearly their strength: starting pitching. In this regard, the Mets have something that the Nationals don’t – quality depth. The question is whether that depth will survive the full season.
Bartolo Colon is gone – he gave them the most innings of anyone at 190. Noah Syndergaard is probably the staff leader now. He made it to 183 last year, but mostly on sheer determination.
Jacob deGrom? 148. Steven Matz? 132. Matt Harvey? 93… and a lot of that wasn’t very Harvey-like.
There’s a lot of hope in the Mets camp. Hope that players will return and be the best of their former selves. That’s true for more than just pitchers, but if you average it out, they’ll probably get something close to what they saw in 2016 overall with some mix of names.
Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo were a pleasant surprise for them. Zack Wheeler will be back, though he last threw in 2014, so any expectation for high innings out of him is folly. Matt Harvey should be healed up from his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome.
So yes, the hope is actually real. But either some of these pitchers will have to pitch out of the bullpen or the Mets will actually have to start hiring a bullpen to make sure that their opponents don’t score after the seventh inning.
Of note: at least three of their primary rivals (Braves, Nationals, and Marlins) have quite enough offense to make that a real concern.
But that’s only on the pitching side of the ledger. Let’s check on the rest.
Oct 1, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; New York Mets right fielder Curtis Granderson (3) talks to left fielder Yoenis Cespedes (52) during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Is Pitching and Cespedes Enough?
Back on that hope theme, we now encounter the Mets offense.
There was a lot to like in 2016. Even without David Wright and adding an invisible Jay Bruce, fangraphs ranked them 7thin the NL in 2016. However, the club ranked only 11th in runs scored – despite a 97 (tied for 6th with the Nats) in wRC+. They were also 7th in team OPS in the NL.
Will they get Wright back? I’m seeing a lot of words that avoid the subject including “Yes”, “until further notice”, “starting a comeback”… and even some “I don’t see how“.
If so, that’s a huge plus for them – obviously. If not… then there’s a lot of other pieces that will need to repeat very good years for this club to be productive:
* – career highs marked
All of that is excellent production – and Walker missed over 1/4 of the season. Michael Conforto is also waiting in the wings and looking for playing time to prove that he belongs in this group.
But will that last? Can they sustain it?
Also, I’m still not personally sold on the Mets’ defensive abilities. That despite good scores in metrics in 2016 and a tie for 11th in baseball for fewest errors.
They also turned the 8th fewest double plays and recorded the 5th fewest number of “out of zone” plays last year. They were 10th lowest in Defensive Runs Saved also. All of that points to limited range for a number of their defenders. That leads to more opposition runs.
Sure – the Braves were worse in all of those categories. But that’s a team with a different makeup coming into 2017. The Mets are virtually identical, and they’re all now a year older, too. Such things will undermine a pitching staff – even a great one.
More from Tomahawk Take
In short, the Mets need a lot of things to go Wright for them to overcome the Nationals. Their pitching will probably hold. Their offense will probably be a little less potent than in 2016, but that might be enough given the starting pitching.
But their bullpen is a disaster waiting to happen, and it has the potential to undo all of the good things the rest of this team could accomplish.
Could the Mets win the NL East? Yes… if the Nationals’ bullpen combined with a key injury both derail that locomotive. Is it likely that they improve on an 87-75 record? No.
Is it more likely that they degenerate into a mediocre mass of baseball humanity with multiple key players on the DL again? Yeah… it really is.
Vegas odds-makers put the Mets chances of winning the World Series around 7th to 9th overall so far. That frankly sounds wildly optimistic to me (and a poor return for a $100 bet even if I’m wrong… heck for those odds, I’d kinda like the Braves, who’d pay $15,000 – even though I don’t gamble).
Put me down for the Mets treading water… something between 80 and 88 wins and second place in the division. But no Wild Card.
