Royals have Big Mo!

During Game 3 of the American League Championship Series, when the Blue Jays were ahead of the Royals 9-2 and then 10-4, I started working on a little study of postseason blowouts. If only because there’s typically a fair amount of chatter about momentum when these things happen.

But the Royals scored four times in the ninth inning and the final score was 11-8, which doesn’t qualify as a blowout. So I stopped.

And then the Royals blew out the Blue Jays in Game 4. So I started again.

Because the Royals really blew out the Blue Jays (14-2), I looked just for games in which the winning team scored at least 10 runs and won by at least 10 runs. Super-blowouts, if you will. 

In the last 25 years, there have been more of these than I expected: 27 of them, not including the last games of series or Tuesday’s massacre in Toronto. The blowouters went 27-0 in those games, outscoring their hapless opponents 364 to 59.

What happened in the next game? I expected to find nothing.

But it’s not quite nothing. Those blowout winners went 17-10 in the next game, outscoring their opponents 115-97.

I think the 17-10 is surprising, but then again that’s not really as large a difference as it seems. Change the results of three close games, and it’s 14-13 and that’s nothing at all.

But maybe the 115-97 isn’t so surprising, because the better team is slightly more likely to blow out the worse team, and the better team is also slighly more likely to slightly outscore the worse team in the next game.

Are the Royals better than the Blue Jays, though? Six months of baseball suggest they’re not. A few days of baseball suggest they are.

I just present information. What you do with it’s your business.