FOX Fantasy and WhatIfSports Supercontest Week 4 NFL Picks
The 2015 SuperContest at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook promises to be bigger and better than ever as entrants are signing up at a record pace in hopes of potentially winning the first-ever $1 million grand prize.
Each week during the 2015 NFL season, FOX Sports fantasy editor Ryan Fowler and WhatIfSports.com’s NFL simulation engine, both part of Team OddsShark, will share three of their five SuperContest picks. Deadline for entering picks is 8pm ET Fridays.
Picks subject to change after initial publication.
|2015 Westgate SuperContest Season-To-Date Records|
|WhatIfSports NFL Simulation Engine||7-8|
Ryan Fowler – Fantasy Editor
Packers (-8) over the 49ers
Only concern – the short week. Don’t let the final score fool you because the Packers torched the Chiefs on Monday night and the 49ers haven’t shown a pulse on defense the last two games (at Steelers and at Cardinals). Eddie Lacy says his ankle is healthy. The line has moved to 9.5 since Supercontest closed its lines. The Packers have among the fewest 3rd down attempts in the NFL and it’s because the offensive is in a groove. Watch Aaron Rodgers carve it up again on Sunday.
Jaguars (+9) over the Colts
Andrew Luck not at 100% (shoulder). Colts offensive line among the worst in the NFL. Colts also worst in the NFL in Give/Take differential (-7). Plus, they needed a remarkable comeback to beat the Titans, a team the Browns beat a week prior.
Blake Bortles and his Jaguars beat the Miami Dolphins – a quality opponent – before the Patriots crushed them in Week 4. Bortles, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns can move the ball against this defense. The key will be T.J. Yeldon to make the most of his assumed 20+ carries. Indy has allowed 112 rush yards per game through the first three weeks.
Cardinals (-7) over the Rams
I’m not questioning the Rams’ defense. It’s a top five unit. I don’t believe the Rams have found an offensive identity and will be hard pressed to find it against the Cardinals in Week 4. St. Louis ranks dead last in total offense and rank fifth-worst in points per game at less than 17. How is Nick Foles suppose to move the chains against the fifth best defense on the road?
The answer is he won’t. Cardinals may get Andre Ellington back to take some pressure off Chris Johnson who racked up 150 total yards last week against the 49ers. Carson Palmer will have all five starting offensive linemen against the Rams – a first this season. To date, the Cardinals o-line has only allowed one sack. The Rams are tied for first with 13 sacks this season.
WhatIfSports NFL Simulation Engine
Cowboys (+3) over the Saints
WhatIfSports.com’s Week 4 predictions include two upsets. We picked Steelers over Ravens (just a little disappointed in Josh Scobee) and Cowboys over Saints. We simulated Dallas and New Orleans 501 times – with Drew Brees at quarterback – and the Cowboys won 66.6 percent of the time by an average score of 26-20. Brees is questionable this week and could be sidelined in favor of Luke McCown. The Saints’ Superdome losing streak stretched to six games with a Week 2 loss to the Buccaneers adding to five home losses to end the 2014 season. Brandon Weeden was competent in replacement of Tony Romo last week, and Joseph Randle could be in line for another strong outing against a New Orleans defense that surrenders 126 rush yards per game (ranked 26th in the NFL). View the box score. (At the time of Thursday’s simulation, a line hadn’t been officially set for the game yet, hence no over/under or ATS statistics in the box score.)
Lions (+10) cover against the Seahawks
While we’re not predicting an upset in Seattle this week – our simulation engine likes the Seahawks to win 65.2 percent of the time by an average score of 25-21 – we don’t envision a blowout either. Seattle finally looked like itself against the Bears in Week 3, winning 26-0, but the defending NFC champs have been off to a slow start in 2015. The Seahawks could be without the services of Marshawn Lynch, who’s questionable with a hamstring injury. If Lynch can’t go, the Seahawks will turn to rookie Thomas Rawls as their lead back. While Rawls totaled 104 rushing yards against the Bears, Detroit would surely prefer him to get the start. In 501 simulations, Detroit covered 67.3 percent of the time. View the box score.
Texans (+6) cover against the Falcons
It’s time for Atlanta to come back down to earth. Well, at least a little. We’re predicting the Falcons to improve to 4-0 with a victory over Houston this weekend, with the home team winning 53.9 percent of simulations by an average score of 24-22. But we don’t see Atlanta covering the 6-point spread as well. Two of the Falcons’ three wins have been by four points or fewer. Hopefully they add a third narrow victory on Sunday. In 501 simulations, Houston covered the spread 62.7 percent of the time. View the box score.