RotoWire NFL Target Analysis 121213

It’s Week 15 and that’s playoff time, baby! Win or go home. No

need for pleasantries here or some clever introduction. Let’s just

get to the meat of this piece and figure out who’s worth starting

this week, and who needs to sit on the bench. Let’s start with a

quick recap of last week’s targets.

Week 14 Target Leaders

(Click column headings to sort.)

 

PLAYER

POS

YARDS

TD

PASS ATT

TARGETS

REC

RZ TRGT

RZ TRG%

CATCH%

TARGET%

Andre Johnson, HOU WR 154 0 58 21 13 4 36.4 61.9 36.2
Shane Vereen, NE RB 153 0 52 17 12 4 66.7 70.6 34.0
Garrett Graham, HOU TE 73 1 58 14 8 3 27.3 57.1 24.1
Marques Colston, NO WR 125 2 42 13 9 3 214.0 69.2 31.0
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI WR 96 1 32 12 12 3 42.9 100.0 37.5
Greg Olsen, CAR TE 40 0 34 12 8 1 16.7 66.7 35.3
Eric Decker, DEN WR 117 1 59 12 8 2 11.1 66.7 20.7
Pierre Garcon, WAS WR 37 0 42 12 5 0 0.0 41.7 29.3
Marlon Brown, BAL WR 92 1 50 11 7 1 16.7 63.6 22.4
Dennis Pitta, BAL TE 48 1 50 11 6 2 33.3 54.5 22.4
Steve Johnson, BUF WR 67 0 33 11 5 0 0.0 45.5 33.3
Jimmy Graham, NO TE 58 2 42 11 6 6 42.9 54.5 26.2
Roddy White, ATL WR 74 0 35 10 8 1 33.3 80.0 29.4
Josh Gordon, CLE WR 151 1 44 10 7 1 33.3 70.0 23.3
Demaryius Thomas, DEN WR 88 1 59 10 7 5 27.8 70.0 17.2
Wes Welker, DEN WR 61 1 59 10 5 3 16.7 50.0 17.2
Charles Clay, MIA TE 97 2 33 10 7 4 40.0 70.0 30.3
Greg Jennings, MIN WR 53 0 38 10 5 0 0.0 50.0 26.3
Rod Streater, OAK WR 130 1 36 10 7 3 60.0 70.0 28.6
Alshon Jeffery, CHI WR 84 1 36 9 5 1 10.0 55.6 25.0
Matt Forte, CHI RB 73 1 36 9 7 3 30.0 77.8 25.0
Jordan Cameron, CLE TE 121 1 44 9 9 1 33.3 100.0 20.9
Da’Rick Rogers, IND WR 107 2 46 9 6 2 40.0 66.7 19.6
Coby Fleener, IND TE 31 0 46 9 5 0 0.0 55.6 19.6
Julian Edelman, NE WR 64 1 52 9 6 1 16.7 66.7 18.0
Riley Cooper, PHI WR 74 0 22 9 3 3 75.0 33.3 42.9
Antonio Brown, PIT WR 137 1 39 9 5 1 25.0 55.6 23.1
Jerricho Cotchery, PIT WR 62 1 39 9 5 1 25.0 55.6 23.1
Le’Veon Bell, PIT RB 28 0 39 9 5 1 25.0 55.6 23.1

Andre Johnson, WR HOU – Nothing we can say here that hasn’t

already been said about Johnson. It’s just good to see that it

doesn’t matter who is under center for the Texans. With the firing

of Gary Kubiak, it looks like Case Keenum will take the reins for

good, and that works just fine for Johnson and his owners as the

five touchdowns he’s scored this season have all come from Keenum’s

arm.

Shane Vereen, RB NE – Hard to argue with 17 targets, right?

The Patriots cutting down to a short passing game worked perfectly

for fantasy owners as Tom Brady turned to Vereen regularly, and the

expectations everyone had coming into the season for these two

finally came to fruition. With the Dolphins ranked 27th in the

league against running back pass plays, Vereen could be a huge play

once again.

Roddy White, WR ATL – For two weeks in a row, White has seen

double-digit targets and now has 18 catches for 217 yards in that

span. His return to fantasy glory was discussed last week and with

a matchup against the Redskins, the discussion continues.

Washington cornerback Josh Wilson isn’t going to be able to keep

pace with him in this one, and Matt Ryan is going to help White

prove it all day.

Dennis Pitta, TE BAL – Another late-season addition done

good as the Baltimore tight end came back from a near season-long

hip injury to grab six catches off a team-high 11 targets and find

his way into the end zone Sunday. He should make for a decent add

if you’re struggling at tight end, but keep in mind that his next

opponent is Detroit, which ranks third in the league against the

tight end. The week after, however, is New England, which ranks

19th against the position.

Wes Welker, WR DEN – Just a moment of condolence for all of

you Welker owners. He’s already been ruled out for Thursday’s game,

and Week 16 could be a problem as well.

Da’Rick Rogers, WR IND – If it wasn’t for the fact that

Darrius Heyward-Bey’s hands were made of granite, I wouldn’t even

suggest looking into Rogers. But with the Colts already locking up

their division, they can play around for the next three weeks and

test some of their rookie receivers. Rogers had a big game last

week and should be tested again to see if he’s capable of

maintaining this level of play.

Overall Targets Leaderboard

(Click column headings to sort.)

 

PLAYER

POS

YARDS

TD

PASS ATT

TARGETS

REC

RZ TRGT

RZ TRG

CATCH

TARGET

Andre Johnson, HOU WR 1277 5 528 149 95 13 22.4 63.8 28.8
Pierre Garcon, WAS WR 1017 3 482 144 89 17 30.9 61.8 30.4
Calvin Johnson, DET WR 1348 12 525 138 75 26 35.6 54.3 24.7
A.J. Green, CIN WR 1175 8 465 138 78 15 30.0 56.5 30.0
Antonio Brown, PIT WR 1240 7 502 133 90 15 20.3 67.7 27.2
Brandon Marshall, CHI WR 1090 9 486 132 84 17 23.3 63.6 27.8
Vincent Jackson, TB WR 1033 6 410 129 64 16 32.7 49.6 32.4
Alshon Jeffery, CHI WR 1193 6 486 127 75 18 24.7 59.1 26.7
Cecil Shorts, JAC WR 777 3 448 123 66 16 23.2 53.7 25.2
Josh Gordon, CLE WR 1400 8 552 123 71 12 18.2 57.7 21.5
Dez Bryant, DAL WR 908 10 465 118 70 15 26.3 59.3 25.5
Jimmy Graham, NO TE 1046 14 519 117 74 20 30.3 63.2 22.9
Demaryius Thomas, DEN WR 1149 11 538 117 74 18 18.4 63.2 21.8
Victor Cruz, NYG WR 973 4 458 115 71 12 25.5 61.7 26.6
Wes Welker, DEN WR 778 10 538 111 73 24 24.5 65.8 20.7
Larry Fitzgerald, ARZ WR 774 10 470 110 67 19 37.3 60.9 24.6
Julian Edelman, NE WR 775 5 523 110 76 18 28.6 69.1 21.4
Torrey Smith, BAL WR 963 4 489 110 55 15 24.2 50.0 22.7
Brian Hartline, MIA WR 855 4 494 110 67 9 15.3 60.9 22.7
Eric Decker, DEN WR 1088 8 538 109 71 18 18.4 65.1 20.3
Mike Wallace, MIA WR 762 3 494 109 58 10 16.9 53.2 22.5
Harry Douglas, ATL WR 926 2 533 107 68 11 15.3 63.6 20.5
Jordan Cameron, CLE TE 825 7 552 105 72 19 28.8 68.6 18.4
Kendall Wright, TEN WR 857 2 425 105 73 9 21.4 69.5 25.1
T.Y. Hilton, IND WR 798 5 474 104 58 9 15.3 55.8 21.0
Steve Smith, CAR WR 681 4 400 103 60 14 31.1 58.3 26.3
Anquan Boldin, SF WR 915 5 332 103 67 12 29.3 65.0 34.6
Antonio Gates, SD TE 776 3 487 102 68 12 15.8 66.7 22.5
DeSean Jackson, PHI WR 1080 8 407 101 65 10 20.4 64.4 25.4
Emmanuel Sanders, PIT WR 661 5 502 100 58 14 18.9 58.0 20.4
Tony Gonzalez, ATL TE 678 6 533 99 65 19 26.4 65.7 19.0
Steve Johnson, BUF WR 593 3 444 98 51 12 34.3 52.0 22.6
Jordy Nelson, GB WR 1046 7 453 97 67 16 25.4 69.1 22.1
Jamaal Charles, KC RB 460 3 463 90 57 16 21.9 63.3 18.0
Garrett Graham, HOU TE 545 5 528 89 49 13 22.4 55.1 17.2
Michael Floyd, ARZ WR 886 4 470 89 56 11 21.6 62.9 19.9
Dwayne Bowe, KC WR 602 5 463 89 49 13 17.8 55.1 17.8
Greg Olsen, CAR TE 651 5 400 88 58 14 31.1 65.9 22.4
Charles Clay, MIA TE 678 6 494 87 60 14 23.7 69.0 18.0
Jason Witten, DAL TE 632 7 465 85 55 14 24.6 64.7 18.4
Hakeem Nicks, NYG WR 789 0 458 85 49 9 19.1 57.6 19.6
Jerome Simpson, MIN WR 670 1 451 85 43 6 12.2 50.6 19.2
Keenan Allen, SD WR 902 5 487 84 61 13 17.1 72.6 18.5
Greg Little, CLE WR 384 2 552 84 35 11 16.7 41.7 14.7
Davone Bess, CLE WR 353 2 552 83 41 7 10.6 49.4 14.5
Matt Forte, CHI RB 518 2 486 82 65 11 15.1 79.3 17.3
Nate Washington, TEN WR 671 2 425 82 43 4 9.5 52.4 19.6
Greg Jennings, MIN WR 570 3 451 81 48 11 22.4 59.3 18.3
Marques Colston, NO WR 721 4 519 81 56 11 16.7 69.1 15.9
Golden Tate, SEA WR 710 4 381 80 52 8 20.5 65.0 24.0
Coby Fleener, IND TE 575 4 474 79 49 13 22.0 62.0 15.9
Martellus Bennett, CHI TE 588 5 486 79 53 16 21.9 67.1 16.6
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU WR 707 2 528 77 44 10 17.2 57.1 14.9
Danny Woodhead, SD RB 534 6 487 76 65 21 27.6 85.5 16.7
Rod Streater, OAK WR 787 3 404 76 50 8 20.5 65.8 19.3
Jared Cook, STL TE 606 4 436 76 43 9 13.8 56.6 17.6
Denarius Moore, OAK WR 569 5 404 74 37 11 28.2 50.0 18.8
Brandon LaFell, CAR WR 553 5 400 74 45 7 15.6 60.8 18.9
Chris Givens, STL WR 514 0 436 74 31 10 15.4 41.9 17.1
Dexter McCluster, KC WR 439 1 463 74 46 10 13.7 62.2 14.8
Kris Durham, DET WR 471 2 525 72 35 11 15.1 48.6 12.9
Riley Cooper, PHI WR 714 7 407 70 37 10 20.4 52.9 17.6
Kenbrell Thompkins, NE WR 466 4 523 70 32 10 15.9 45.7 13.6

Anquan Boldin, WR SF – With the addition of Mario Manningham

and Michael Crabtree to the 49ers passing attack, Boldin isn’t

seeing the blanket coverage he used to see throughout the year, and

Colin Kaepernick is having a much easier time getting him the ball.

The veteran receiver has been outstanding since the Week 9 bye and

his 42 targets over the last five games have officially pushed him

to the top of the leaderboard for target percentage. Even better is

that he’s backing that up with stats as he’s turned those targets

into 29 catches for 324 yards and three touchdowns. He has a bit of

a tough matchup this week against Tampa Bay, but next week against

Atlanta? Oh baby!

Torrey Smith, WR BAL – The upcoming Monday night matchup

with Detroit practically makes him a must-start, but keep in mind

that his target percentage is on the way down – 24.1-percent last

week to 22.7 this week – and it could drop even more with the

addition of Pitta to the passing game and the increased level of

play Marlon Brown has recently brought to the table. Deep-league

owners will obviously leave him in the lineup as the Ravens’ No. 1

guy, but if you’re in a shallow league and have a comparable option

with a better matchup, you may want to think about the switch.

Chris Givens, WR STL – His 17.1-percent target rate is down

slightly from last week, and rightfully so. He saw just two

targets, and no, it’s not because the Rams passing game is inept.

Well, it kind of is, but that’s not the point to be made here. The

point to be made is that in the two games prior to this week,

Givens totaled 15 targets and had just two catches. Sorry, but your

quarterback isn’t coming back to you with a catch rate that poor.

Deep-league owners hoping he’d eventually come around can easily

move on, if you haven’t already.

Red Zone Target Percentage

Pierre Garcon, WR WAS – His 30.9-percent target rate inside

the red zone has been solid, but what will things look like with

Kirk Cousins under center for the next three weeks? Cousins has

made two appearances this season and really didn’t look good in

either one. I’m guessing a strong effort from Alfred Morris all

game, including a lot of check downs inside the red zone. Garcon

should still see a fair amount of work, but it’s not like it’s

going to be what it was with RG3, who always looked for Garcon

before anyone else, under center.

Charles Clay, TE MIA – He had two touchdowns last week and

has three over his last four games. Ryan Tannehill is growing more

comfortable with Clay, especially inside the red zone, as evidenced

by his target rate inside the 20 jumping from 20.4 percent to 23.7

percent. If you’re looking for help this week, keep in mind that

the Patriots rank just 19th in the league against the position. The

opposition is throwing an average of 8.6 passes to the tight end

against them, averaging 64.2 yards per game.

Potential Risers

Julius Thomas

Tavon Austin

Roddy White

Marlon Brown

James Jones

Potential Fallers

Dexter McCluster

Chris Givens

Kris Durham

Nate Washington

Jared Cook

Week 15 Matchup to Watch

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos – Well, let’s just get

the part started with what should be the highest-scoring Thursday

night game we’ve seen this season. The Chargers pass defense ranks

dead last in the NFL and Peyton Manning has some records to smash

this season. Sure, the ground game will get its fair share, but

Manning should be good to find Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and

returning tight end Julius Thomas quite a bit to pad his already

puffed-up totals. And obviously with a desire to keep pace, Philip

Rivers will take it to the air as well, finding Keenan Allen,

Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green downfield as much as he can. Danny

Woodhead should find his way into the action as well, so happily

consider him for a flex option.

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