NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – December 12

NBA FanDuel

Dec 7, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) cheers for his team on the bench against the Los Angeles Lakers in the second half at Toyota Center. The Houston Rockets won 134 to 95. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports NBA FanDuel

Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup! 

The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.

One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.

A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.

Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!

To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.

This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.

Over the first 43 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372.2 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!

Monday’s Main NBA FanDuel action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with seven games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!

NBA FanDuel

Dec 4, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers guard Chris Paul (3) reacts to a foul call in the second half of the game against the Indiana Pacers at Staples Center. Pacers won 111-102. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks

Chris Paul ($9,500) This pick is dependent on Blake Griffin being out, but with a questionable tag going into Monday and the fact Vegas has already released a total/spread, I am going to side with the thinking that Blake is out.

When the Clippers are at full strength, the Big 3 typically cannibalize each other’s fantasy production but when one of them is out, they become elite DFS targets. When Griffin is off the floor, Paul sees his usage spike to 28.3% and he averages 1.5 fantasy points per minute so this is a great spot to target the Clippers star.

Without Griffin on the floor in his last game, all CP3 did was drop 20 points, 20 assists and 62 FanDuel points against the Pelicans so for under $10k, CP3 is a lock and load play tonight against Damian Lillard and the Blazers.

Patrick Beverley ($5,100) The Houston-Brooklyn game has a massive total of 226.5 which is by far the highest on this slate but with a 14 point spread it also comes with significant blowout risk.

The Nets are giving up the most fantasy points in the league this season so this is not a spot we can ignore but we need to be mindful that the Rockets could have their starters on the bench by the fourth quarter with a two touchdown spread!

Outside of James Harden, the rest of this game is littered with mid-priced options which is a great way for us to get exposure to this game while hedging our bets on the big spread.

The Nets are 29th in the NBA in DvP to opposing PG’s and Beverley comes into the game averaging 31.2 FanDuel points per game over his last three contests which would exceed 6x value. Jeremy Lin is expected to return in some capacity for the Nets tonight and I expect Beverley to be able to rack up steals against a rusty Lin and the fast paced Nets!

NBA FanDuel

Dec 10, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) blocks the shot attempt by Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) during the second half at Verizon Center. Washington Wizards won 110-105. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guard Picks

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,800) The question you are going to have to ask yourself tonight is do you roster James Harden in the highest total game with blow out risk or do you save $1,600 and drop below $10k for the Greek Freak.

Antetokounmpo gets a tough match-up against Toronto on paper but earlier this season against the Raptors he was able to drop 29 points, 11 assists, 6 rebounds and 50.7 FanDuel points. Strategy wise I love the idea of dropping below $10k and grabbing the same 50 point upside that Harden has at a material discount.

Over the last 10 games, both Giannis and Harden have eclipsed the 50 FanDuel point mark in five of those ten games so the recent production and salary discount makes locking in Giannis my preferred approach tonight!

Sean Kilpatrick ($5,400) Although the Rockets may have the better match-up, I am not going to overlook the Nets side of this match-up as the Nets, who already play at a high pace, will see an up-tick in projected pace tonight and are projected to score over 106 points.

Kilpatrick has been a steady producer for the Nets all season long and has put up 33+ FanDuel points (6x value) in each of his previous two games before the expected dud against the Spurs his last time out.

The fantasy production will be there for the Nets tonight even in a blow out and if they can somehow keep this game close, it will be players like Kilpatrick that will be the focal point of that attack. Kilpatrick has already flashed 50 FanDuel point upside this season and matching up against James Harden’s defense is an ideal spot to take a big time GPP position!

NBA FanDuel

Dec 5, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Harrison Barnes (40) reacts after scoring during the first half against the Charlotte Hornets at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks

Harrison Barnes ($6,400) The Dallas-Denver game is still awaiting a Vegas total as of this writing but the Mavericks should see a material pace up-tick in this spot which makes them a sneaky target.

Barnes is essentially the entire Mavericks offense at this point, averaging just under 18 shot attempts per game as the primary scorer on Dallas. Barnes is locked into 30+ minutes a game for Dallas and is a solid cash game option due to his guaranteed minutes and usage. On a night where I am looking to take some shots in other spots, I like the “safety” Barnes provides in this spot at the SF position!

Trevor Ariza ($5,500) Heading back to Houston, we can target the spot that Brooklyn has struggled the most to defend this season as they giving up the most fantasy points to opposing SF’s this year.

Ariza excels in up-tempo games like this one and the Nets turn the ball over at one of the fastest rates in the league on the road this season (17 times per game) which sets up perfectly for Ariza tonight.

NBA FanDuel

Dec 10, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers center DeAndre Jordan (6) dunks the ball against the New Orleans Pelicans during the second quarter at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks

Trevor Booker ($5,800) The Nets PF has been a steady value option for DFS all season long and is another mid-priced option that allows you to get exposure to this Rockets-Nets game.

Prior to the San Antonio game last time out, Booker had back to back double-double performances racking up 30+ FanDuel points exceeding 5x value for Brooklyn. Booker typically excels in up-tempo games like this one and with Ryan Anderson spending most of his time out near the three-point line, it should open up plenty of rebounding opportunities for Booker on the defensive end.

Nikola Jokic ($5,600) Can we safely re-insert Jokic into the circle of trust? Since returning from a three game absence, Jokic has averaged 32 FanDuel points per game including two double-double games while seeing his minutes steadily climb into the high 20’s.

Although the Mavericks are not a team on paper we typically like this target, with Dwight Powell and Salah Merji manning the front-court now due to injury, this is a spot where Jokic could feast inside and I love the GPP upside he possess each night!

DeAndre Jordan ($6,900) Assuming Blake Griffin is out, Jordan should be in an extremely favorable spot tonight against a Portland team that is 24th in the league in DvP to opposing centers.

In one of his last games out without Blake, in a similarly favorable match-up, Jordan posted a monster 21 point, 23 rebound 50 FanDuel point outing against the Nets. Portland does not have anyone who can match-up with Jordan and without Griffin around to grab the rebounds, Jordan should be the primary beneficiary.

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Best of luck tonight in your NBA FanDuel contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR throughout the day on Twitter for the latest lineup news and roster updates!

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