FOX Fantasy and WhatIfSports Supercontest Week 5 NFL Picks
Each week during the 2015 NFL season, FOX Sports fantasy editor Ryan Fowler and WhatIfSports.com’s NFL simulation engine, both part of Team OddsShark, will share three of their five Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest picks. Deadline for entering picks is 8pm ET Fridays.
Picks subject to change after initial publication.
|2015 Westgate SuperContest Season-To-Date Records|
|WhatIfSports NFL Simulation Engine||10-10|
Ryan Fowler – Fantasy Editor
Broncos (-4.5) over Raiders
The Raiders have faced the Ravens, Browns and Bears defense the past three games. All well-below league average. Unlike in past seasons, the Broncos are led by one of the best defensive units in the league and will be Derek Carr’s greatest test to-date. Carr had to leave the Raiders Week 1 contest against the Bengals defense due to injury. Cincinnati won that contest 33-13.
Meanwhile, the Raiders defense is among the league’s worst. They allowed a depleted Ravens’ offense to score 33 points. Even Peyton Manning in the twilight of his career, can move the ball along with what we assume to be more from Ronnie Hillman in the running game.
Cardinals (-2.5) over Lions
What-if David Johnson doesn’t fumble that opening kickoff? I think the Week 4 contest against the Rams is much different. Seemed like that turnover and Larry Fitzgerald’s later in the game just sucked the momentum of a team on fire. Arizona’s offensive line, which had been so good, faced a stiff pass rush from the Rams. The goal in Week 5, stop Ziggy Ansah and Carson Palmer thrives. Stop Ziggy. If the Seahawks has any type of offensive line, they roll the Lions. Don’t let the Week 4 Monday night final score fool you.
Giants (-7) over 49ers
I know it’s a lot of points. However, team on the brink. Offense in shambles. San Francisco’s second Eastern Time Zone road trip – granted at night 5:30 p.m. PST kickoff. After allowing 90 points to the Steelers and Cardinals the prior two weeks, the 49ers defense looked better in Week 4 against the Packers. However, the team will be without Ahmad Brooks in Week 5 after the passing of his sister. New York’s defense can be beat via the pass, but the questions of Colin Kapernick current confidence remain.
WhatIfSports NFL Simulation Engine
Bills (-2.5) over Titans
In WhatIfSports.com’s Week 5 predictions, Buffalo is a straight up winner 71.0 percent of the time by an average score of 25-18. With the Bills favored by just 2.5 points, our simulation engine placed their ATS odds at a healthy 67.7 percent. In addition to home field advantage, the Bucs will also benefit from coming off a bye. However, the team hasn’t faced an opponent the caliber of Buffalo, with its schedule including Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Indianapolis. View the box score.
Bears (+9) cover against Chiefs
Chicago is fresh off an upset win over Oakland, a 22-20 victory that featured the return of Jay Cutler. Can the team the positive momentum going with a win at Kansas City? We don’t see it happening. But we do envision the Bears to keep it closer than the nine-point spread is giving them credit for. In 501 simulations, Kansas City wins 64.5 percent of the time by an average score of 27-23. Chicago covers the spread 67.1 percent of the time. View the box score.
Rams (+9) cover against Packers
St. Louis is a tough team to figure out. Its two victories have come over very good teams, with a Week 1 OT win against Seattle and last week’s two-point victory in Arizona. But its losses include a 24-10 defeat at Washington and a 12-6 loss to Pittsburgh, despite Michael Vick suiting up for the entire fourth quarter. So which team will show up on Sunday? We’re predicting the Rams play up to the level of their opponent and keep the game closer than expected. In 501 simulations, St. Louis covered the spread 59.7 percent of the time. View the box score.
WEEK 5 NFL TRENDS (Courtesy: OddsShark)
Colts at Texans
The Colts are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against the Texans.
The total has gone under in 10 of the Colts’ last 11 games.
The Colts are 15-0 SU and 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 divisional games.
The Texans are 1-7 SU in their last eight games in October.
The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six divisional games at home.
Bills at Titans
The Titans are 7-2 SU in their nine games at home against the Bills since 1980.
The Bills are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight games as road favorites.
The Bills are 1-5 SU in their last six games on the road against AFC South.
The Titans are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games after the bye.
The Titans are 1-12 SU and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.
Redskins at Falcons
The Falcons open as 9 point favorites to Redskins, this would be the highest ever odds favoring the Falcons over Redskins since 1980 (where the database starts). Second highest was in 2009 when the Falcons were an 8.5 point home favorite (only other game where the Falcons are favored by six or more). Falcons are 4-1 SU in their five games as favorites against the Redskins since 1994.
Redskins are 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on the road in October.
Redskins are 1-14 SU and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as road underdogs.
Falcons are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games.
The total has gone under in five of the Falcons’ last six games in October.
Browns at Ravens
The Ravens are 13-1 SU against the Browns since 2008.
The total has gone over in the Browns’ last four games.
The Browns are 3-0 ATS in their last three divisional games on the road.
The Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as home favorites.
The Ravens are 7-0 SU in their last seven games as home favorites in October.
Seahawks at Bengals
The total has gone over in five of the Seahawks’ last six games against the Bengals.
The Seahawks are 0-6 SU and 0-4-2 ATS in their six games on the road against AFC North since 2003.
The Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on the road in October.
The Bengals are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games.
The total has gone over in seven of the Bengals’ last nine games in October.
Rams at Packers
The Packers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Rams.
The Packers open as 10.5 favorites over the Rams, this is only the fourth time since 1980 that the Packers have been favored over the Rams by 10.5 or more points.
The Rams are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games.
The total has gone over in seven of the Rams’ last nine games as underdogs in October.
The Packers are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games.
The Packers are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games at home in October.
The Rams are 2-6 SU in their eight games before the bye on the road since 1993.
Bears at Chiefs
The total has gone under in all five of the Bears’ games against the Chiefs since 1996.
The Chiefs have only been a favorite of 11 or more points eight times since 1984 (opened as 11 point favorites against Bears this coming week), they are 6-2 SU and 2-6 ATS in those games.
The Bears are 1-8 SU in their last nine games.
The total has gone over in five of the Bears’ last six games on the road in October.
The Chiefs are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games.
Saints at Eagles
The Saints are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games against the Eagles.
The total has gone under in five of the Saints’ last seven games.
The Saints are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games in October.
The Eagles are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games at home.
The total has gone under in five of the Eagles last six games in October.
Jaguars at Buccaneers
The Jaguars are 4-1 SU and ATS in their five games against the Buccaneers since 1995.
The total has gone under in the Jaguar’s last five games as underdogs in October.
The Jaguars are 0-11 SU in their last 11 games on the road.
The total has gone over in nine of the Buccaneers’ last 10 games in October.
The Buccaneers are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games as home favorites.
The Buccaneers are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games before the bye.
Cardinals at Lions
The Cardinals are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Lions.
The total has gone over in the Cardinals’ last five games.
The Cardinals are 1-8 SU and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games on the road in October.
The Lions are 5-1 SU in their last six games at home.
The Lions are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games at home in October.
Patriots at Cowboys
The total has gone over in six of the Patriots’ seven games against the Cowboys since 1984.
The Patriots are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games after the bye.
The Patriots are 6-0 SU in their last six games.
The Cowboys are 10-3 SU in their 13 games before the bye at home since 1990.
The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home.
Broncos at Raiders
The Broncos are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Raiders.
The Broncos are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six divisional games.
The total has gone over eight of the Broncos’ last nine games as a favorite in October, with one push.
The Raiders are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games before the bye.
The Raiders are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.
49ers at Giants
The total has gone under in the 49ers’ last seven games against NFC East.
The 49ers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.
The 49ers are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games in October.
The Giants are 6-1 SU in their last seven games at home in October.
The Giants are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games against NFC West.
Steelers at Chargers
The Steelers are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Chargers.
The Steelers are 6-1-2 ATS in their last nine games.
The total has gone under in the Steelers’ last five games on the road in October.
The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against AFC North at home.
The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home.
The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six MNF games.
The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six MNF games.