Sep 5, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier (2) hits a home run during the eighth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Target Field. The Kansas City Royals defeated the Minnesota Twins 11-5. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
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FanDuel MLB: Picks and Pivots for September 20
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB lineups. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday’s MLB schedule kicks off at 7:05PM EST with a full 15 games on the FanDuel Main slate!
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
Aug 29, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Joe Musgrove (59) delivers a pitch against the Oakland Athletics during the second inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
One of my favorite aspects of playing daily fantasy baseball is that you can utilize one days research and apply it across multiple days as you look to highlight series you may want to target or certain ballparks you want exposure to.
I bring this point up because after writing my Monday article, I started to dig more and more into the offenses and found that we had multiple spots to find big time offensive totals which meant that finding the right value pitcher was going to be critical. As I approach the Tuesday slate, I am finding a ton of similarities in the hitting environments and with 5 additional games on the slate, we have even more match-ups to dig through.
My top value option on the slate and someone I will look to roll out in tournaments is Joe Musgrove ($7,200) who heads to the spacious ballpark in Oakland. Musgrove started out his major league career with three straight strong outings then hit a rough patch but has pitched well his last two games out, racking up 70 points in outings against the Cubs and Rangers.
Musgrove has been a boom or bust option this year, putting up 36 or more fantasy points in 5 of his 9 outings while failing to hit doubly digits in 3 of those 9!
Musgrove’s best start of the season came on August 29, delivering a 5 inning, 7 strikeout win and 49 FanDuel points against the same A’s team he faces on Tuesday.
The price point on Musgrove allows you to average over $3,400 per batter and with so many top hitting options available, I am happy to target his bargain price and GPP upside when building my lineup!
Aug 12, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre (29) and designated hitter Carlos Beltran (36) celebrate during the game against the Detroit Tigers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Rangers and Angels: Although we have a game in Coors Field, similar to Monday night, it may make sense to pivot away from Colorado and focus on this game that has a 10.5 opening run total!
The Rangers get to face off with Daniel Wright who has given up a 48.9% hard contact to left-handed batters (38.6% to right-handed batters) and .400+ wOBA to hitters from both sides of the plate in a limited sample size.
With mid 90’s temperatures expected again Tuesday, this is an ideal hitting environment and I will look to get exposure to to Rangers hitters on both sides of the plate including Carlos Beltran ($3,600) & Adrian Beltre ($3,000).
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The Angels face off against A.J. Griffin who has been a 45% hard contact rate and 18 HR in only 54 IP to left-handed batters this season. The issue is that the Angels are a predominately right-handed team and with Kole Calhoun away from the team due to the birth of his child, we do not get to take advantage of this spot like I would want to. If Nick Buss ($2,200) is in the lineup, he would make for an interesting punt play due to Griffin’s metrics this season!
Tigers and Twins: Coming in at 9.5 runs in the opening Vegas totals, the Tigers and Twins get to feast against two very hittable LHP and provide another great pivot off Coors Field.
Hector Santiago takes the hill for the Twins, having given up a 38% hard contact and is giving up more than a 52% fly ball rate to opposing right-handed hitters. With his penchant to give up fly balls and hard hits, this could be a great spot for multiple home runs and the Tigers lineup is loaded with right-handed power.
Miguel Cabrera ($3,800) & J.D. Martinez ($3,700) make for two of the top plays on the board and truthfully any part of the Tigers right-handed hitters can be added for a full on Tigers stack.
On the other side of this match-up, the Twins get to face LHP Matt Boyd which puts Brian Dozier ($4,000) in play at second base and with a few games removed from his hot streak this may be a spot where the masses move on and we can target Dozier at a lower than expected ownership!
Jun 11, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals left fielder Matt Holliday (7) crosses home plate on a three run home run as second baseman Jedd Gyorko (3) and shortstop Aledmys Diaz (36) and third baseman Jhonny Peralta (27) wait to greet Holliday against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fifth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Below you will find my initial lineup for Tuesday’s Main FanDuel MLB slate including notes/comments on my roster construction.