Welcome to today’s daily fantasy baseball post! Remember that you can find our posts on the new DFS home page, as well as the fantasy page. Bookmark those sites now!
5 Things to Watch:
1. Here are the three games with the highest over/unders for Monday, provided by OddsShark…
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2. The strongest favorite for Monday is Jon Lester and the Cubbies (-245). They take on the Phillies on the road. Lester actually started against Philadelphia on May 27th: 6.1 IP, 1 ER, and 7 Ks in the win. Lester has also tallied at least seven strikeouts in three of the past four outings.
3. For the BvPers out there: Carlos Correa is 5-12 (.417) with two home runs against Colby Lewis…Carlos Gonzalez is 5-11 (.455) with one home run against Mike Bolsinger…Kyle Seager is 5-12 (.417) with two extra-base hits against Trevor Bauer.
4. Rain shouldn’t be a factor in tonight’s 10-game schedule. However, if anything develops later, we’ll be sure to pass along the info on Twitter (see Twitter feed at the bottom of this story).
5. As I wrote in the Week 10 two-start pitchers post on Sunday, Colby Lewis loves to face the Astros. In his career, Lewis is 10-1 with a 2.39 ERA when he faces Houston. The over/under in the HOU/TEX game might be high, but don’t be surprised if Lewis throws another gem against the ‘Stros tonight.
On Sunday, D.J. Foster suggested both Matt Harvey and Jose Fernandez in the NYM/MIA matchup. That game gave us the the best-case scenario, 1-0, final score. Harvey pitched seven strong innings and Fernandez struck out 14 Mets in his seven innings of work.
Must-Start of the day: Jon Lester, CHC
He’s the best pitcher on a slate with only one top tier option. On one-SP sites, like FanDuel, he’s a cash-game must. In tournaments, it might be best to deviate from the norm. Lester already had success against the Phillies earlier in the season, too.
Deal of the day: Steve Pearce, TB
He has a .429 ISO and .542 wOBA against lefties this season.
Avoid of the day: Adam Jones, BAL
He is 1-13 (.077) with seven strikeouts against Danny Duffy.
Stack of the day: Chicago Cubs
Normally, it’s impossible to stack the big Cubs’ hitters without suffering at other spots in your DFS lineup. However, with some cheap pitchers available (more on that later), it shouldn’t be a problem tonight. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant will be a staple for me. I’ll probably add Javier Baez and potentially one other as well.
Jon Lester, CHC – (See "5 Things" and "Must-start")
Colby Lewis, TEX – (See "5 Things")
Mike Bolsinger, LAD – On a two-pitcher DFS site, like DraftKings, Bolsinger is priced way too low. I love choosing a pitcher with a price tag below $5,000 because the reward far outweighs the risk. Bolsinger has notched at least 15 DK points in his last two starts. Chris Archer has tallied more than 15 DK points once in his last three outings and is $3,000 more expensive.
Curt Casali, TB – He has a .244 ISO against lefties this season.
James McCann, DET – He has a .242 ISO against lefties this year.
Anthony Rizzo, CHC – He has a .220 ISO against lefties this year.
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI – On FanDuel, take a look at Goldy’s price tag ($3,400). He should never be under $4K. On principle alone, I might choose him.
Steve Pearce, TB – "Deal of the day."
Ian Kinsler, DET – He has a .255 ISO against left-handed pitchers this season.
Ben Zobrist, CHC – Same as the reason for Goldy on FD. Zobrist’s price tag is way too low.
Kris Bryant, CHC – He has a .279 ISO against lefties this season.
Nick Castellanos, DET – He has a .265 ISO against southpaws this year.
Josh Donaldson, TOR – He has a .248 ISO against righties this season.
Adrian Beltre, TEX – He has a .208 ISO against righties in 2016.
Carlos Correa, HOU – (See "5 Things")
Javier Baez, CHC – He has a .200 ISO and a .502 wOBA against lefties this season.
J.D. Martinez, DET – He has a .277 ISO against lefties.
Nomar Mazara, TEX – He has a .246 ISO against righties this year.
Jose Bautista, TOR – He has a .243 ISO against righties this season.
George Springer, HOU – He has a .216 ISO against right-handed pitchers this season.
Colby Rasmus, HOU – He has a .200 ISO against righties in 2016.