South Florida Bulls

Here's the most likely Big 12 expansion scenario

Published Nov. 15, 2016 3:49 p.m. ET

foxsports

Editor's note: This is an excerpt from Stewart Mandel's weekly Mailbag. To submit question for a future Mailbag, send it to stewart.mandel@fox.com.

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Here's your weekly Big 12 expansion question. During the previous round, the Big 12 seemed to be a step behind the other major conferences. Do you think bruised egos in the Big 12 leadership might lead to the league being the first to jump to 16 teams? They have a wide selection of teams and could leave few good options for other leagues in this next round of musical chairs. I could see them expanding with Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, BYU, UCF & USF.

-- Joshua Moran, Spring, Texas

Bruised egos -- or perhaps more accurately, wallet envy -- are a big reason the Big 12 is even considering expansion. But given the SBJ report earlier this week that ESPN and FOX are pushing back against the Big 12 for trying to add perceived inferior programs, coupled with the general sense I have that the presidents may have a hard time agreeing on the same two schools, 16 seems very far-fetched.

It would net the league more money but water down its product to the point where it might as well exist in some sort of new classification between Power 5 and Group of 5. It would feel desperate.

Given the presidents’ impetus appears to be primarily a cash grab -- milking those TV contracts for as much of that pro rata money as possible -- I initially guessed the league would shoot for 14. With a couple weeks’ reflection, though, 12 now seems much more likely.

Presumably you could get eight of 10 presidents to agree on two schools, perhaps Cincinnati and Houston. Plus, it does the least to alienate the league’s TV partners short of scrapping expansion altogether (which could still happen mind you), and it gives the best hope for a smooth integration of the newbies. The larger you go from there, the more scattershot the final product will become.

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