Stewart Mandel’s college football bowl projections for all 40 games
With just two weeks of games remaining, bowl execs have a better sense of which teams will be available to them and which they prefer. Which means my reporting for these projections is becoming more informed/less pure guesswork.
But ultimately, the whole lineup trickles from the playoff field down. Last week I had projected 11-2 Big Ten champ Wisconsin as the No. 4 seed; this week I went with projected 12-1 Pac-12 champ Washington. We’ll find out Tuesday night whether the committee still considers the Huskies the higher-ranked team.
One interesting storyline related to that is whether 10-3 Pac-12 South champ Colorado would remain ahead of 9-3 USC, which beat the Buffs during the season. The order could determine which team goes to the Rose Bowl.
Finally, I'm conservatively projecting 76 eligible teams for 80 berths. In addition to a projected 6-7 Hawaii team, the three projected "alternates" — with the order determined by highest APR score — are 5-7 Vanderbilt (990), 6-6 (with two FCS wins) Army (989) and 5-7 Boston College (981).
Teams in bold have accepted a bid
* — replacement team for a conference without enough eligible teams
** — Projected 5-7 team (picked based on APR score)
Peach Bowl: Alabama vs. Washington (playoff)
Date: Dec. 31 — Atlanta
Bowl affiliation: CFP No. 1 vs. CFP No. 4
Fiesta Bowl: Clemson vs. Ohio State (playoff)
Date: Dec. 31 — Glendale, Ariz.
Bowl affiliation: CFP No. 2 vs. CFP No. 3
Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Michigan
Date: Dec. 30 — Miami
Bowl affiliation: ACC vs. SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame
Cotton Bowl: Penn State vs. Western Michigan
Date: Jan. 2 — Arlington, Texas
Bowl affiliation: At-large vs. Group of 5
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Colorado
Date: Jan. 2 — Pasadena, Calif.
Bowl affiliation: Big Ten vs. Pac-12
Sugar Bowl: Tennessee vs. Oklahoma
Date: Jan. 2 — New Orleans
Bowl affiliation: SEC vs. Big 12
New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State vs. UTSA
Date: Dec. 17 — Albuquerque, NM
Bowl affiliation: MWC vs. C-USA
Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs. Arizona State
Date: Dec. 17 — Las Vegas
Bowl affiliation: MWC vs. Pac-12 No. 6
Camellia Bowl: Troy vs. Eastern Michigan
Date: Dec. 17 — Montgomery, Ala.
Bowl affiliation: Sun Belt vs. MAC
Cure Bowl: North Texas vs. South Alabama
Date: Dec. 17 — Orlando
Bowl affiliation: American* vs. Sun Belt
New Orleans Bowl: Arkansas State vs. Old Dominion
Date: Dec. 17 — New Orleans
Bowl affiliation: Sun Belt No. 1 vs. C-USA
Miami Beach Bowl: Temple vs. Ohio
Date: Dec. 19 — Miami
Bowl affiliation: American vs. MAC
Boca Raton Bowl: Central Florida vs. Western Kentucky
Date: Dec. 20 — Boca Raton, Fla.
Bowl affiliation: American vs. C-USA
Poinsettia Bowl: Air Force vs. BYU
Date: Dec. 21 — San Diego
Bowl affiliation: MWC vs. BYU
Idaho Potato Bowl: Wyoming vs. Central Michigan
Date: Dec. 22 — Boise, Id.
Bowl affiliation: MWC vs. MAC
Bahamas Bowl: Memphis vs. Miami of Ohio
Date: Dec. 23 — Nassau, Bahamas
Bowl affiliation: American vs. MAC
Armed Forces Bowl: Baylor vs. Navy
Date: Dec. 23 — Fort Worth, Texas
Bowl affiliation: Big 12 No. 7 vs. American/Navy
Dollar General Bowl: Toledo vs. Appalachian State
Date: Dec. 23 — Mobile, Ala.
Bowl affiliation: MAC vs. Sun Belt
Hawaii Bowl: Middle Tennessee State vs. Hawaii
Date: Dec. 24 — Honolulu, HI
Bowl affiliation: C-USA vs. MWC
St. Petersburg Bowl: Boston College vs. Tulsa
Date: Dec. 26 — St. Petersburg, Fla.
Bowl affiliation: ACC** vs. American
Quick Lane Bowl: Maryland vs. Vanderbilt
Date: Dec. 26 — Detroit
Bowl affiliation: Big Ten No. 8-9 vs. ACC No. 8-10**
Independence Bowl: NC State vs. Ole Miss
Date: Dec. 26 — Shreveport, La.
Bowl affiliation: ACC No. 8-10 vs. SEC No. 10
Heart of Dallas Bowl: Army vs. Louisiana Tech
Date: Dec. 27 — Dallas
Bowl affiliation: Big Ten No. 8-9** vs. C-USA
Military Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. South Florida
Date: Dec. 27 — Annapolis, Md.
Bowl affiliation: ACC No. 8-10 vs. American
Holiday Bowl: Washington State vs. Minnesota
Date: Dec. 27 — San Diego
Bowl affiliation: Pac-12 No. 3 vs. Big Ten No. 5-7
Cactus Bowl: TCU vs. San Diego St.
Date: Dec. 27 — Tempe, Ariz.
Bowl affiliation: Big 12 No. 6 vs. Pac-12 No. 7*
Pinstripe Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern
Date: Dec. 28 — Bronx, NY
Bowl affiliation: ACC No. 4-7 vs. Big Ten No. 5-7
Russell Athletic Bowl: Miami vs. West Virginia
Date: Dec. 28 — Orlando
Bowl affiliation: ACC No. 3 vs. Big 12 No. 3
Foster Farms Bowl: Utah vs. Indiana (on FOX)
Date: Dec. 28 — Santa Clara, Calif.
Bowl affiliation: Pac-12 No. 4 vs. Big Ten No. 5-7
Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Kansas State
Date: Dec. 28 — Houston
Bowl affiliation: SEC No. 3-8 vs. Big 12 No. 4
Birmingham Bowl: Houston vs. South Carolina
Date: Dec. 29 — Birmingham, Ala.
Bowl affiliation: American vs. SEC No. 9
Belk Bowl: LSU vs. Virginia Tech
Date: Dec. 29 — Charlotte
Bowl affiliation: SEC No. 3-8 vs. ACC No. 4-7
Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. USC
Date: Dec. 29 — San Antonio
Bowl affiliation: Big 12 No. 2 vs. Pac-12 No. 2
Liberty Bowl: Kentucky vs. Texas
Date: Dec. 30 — Memphis
Bowl affiliation: SEC No. 3-8 vs. Big 12 No. 5
Sun Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Stanford
Date: Dec. 30 — El Paso, Texas
Bowl affiliation: ACC No. 4-7 vs. Pac-12 No. 5
Music City Bowl: Georgia vs. Iowa
Date: Dec. 30 — Nashville
Bowl affiliation: SEC No. 3-8 vs. Big Ten No. 5-7
Arizona Bowl: New Mexico vs. Idaho
Date: Dec. 30 — Tucson, Ariz.
Bowl affiliation: MWC vs. Sun Belt
Citrus Bowl: Auburn vs. Florida State
Date: Dec. 31 — Orlando
Bowl affiliation: SEC No. 2 vs. ACC/Big Ten
TaxSlayer Bowl: Arkansas vs. North Carolina
Date: Dec. 31 — Jacksonville, Fla.
Bowl affiliation: SEC No. 3-8 vs. ACC No. 4-7
Outback Bowl: Nebraska vs. Florida
Date: Jan. 2 — Tampa, Fla.
Bowl affiliation: Big Ten No. 3-4 vs. SEC No. 3-8
