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Why I'm picking Villanova to win the NCAA tournament
Picking an NCAA tournament bracket is a lot like playing the stock market. You have to be prepared to weather some short-term losses (missing early upsets) with the confidence that you'll eventually enjoy long-term gains (nailing Final Four teams).
Just like the stock market, it's never a bad idea to ride the sport's blue chips. And recently, few brands have been more dependable than Villanova and the ACC.
Yes, I realize that past performance does not guarantee future results, yada, yada, yada. Hey, if you think you hold the secret ability to predict which basketball start-up will become the next Google of the NCAA tournament, by all means, take your money straight to Vegas. (Then set it on fire.)
If, on the other hand, you're more comfortable with consistently steady performers, then step into my office.
Are you familiar with the Villanova Wildcats? You should be. Some 49 weeks ago, a gentleman by the name of Kris Jenkins rose up and hit a game-winning three-pointer against North Carolina to earn coach Jay Wright's team the national championship. Does any of that ring a bell?
If so, let me tell you a little bit about what Villanova has been up to since last you saw them. They went 31-3, won the nation's third-toughest conference by three games and ran through the Big East tournament. Jenkins is still there. So is national player of the year candidate Josh Hart and fellow national title game starter Jalen Brunson.
And yet, people are racing to pick teams other than Villanova to win this year's crown. Which seems kind of a futile exercise.
Yes, it's very hard to repeat in college basketball. That's why nobody's done it since Florida a decade ago. But that's in part because the schools that generally win national championships — Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina, etc. — seemingly turn over their entire starting lineup every year.
Villanova is the rare modern champion that returned mostly the same core and supplemented it with a couple of shiny new toys (sophomore Mikal Bridges and freshman Donte DiVincenzo). Sure, somebody else could win it, but are any of them a safer choice than the No. 1 overall seed?
If it's my money, I'll take Villanova to cut down the nets again. Even with Duke and all of its first-round picks in training potentially lurking in the Elite Eight. The Blue Devils are the anti-safe pick. They could roll through this tourney like they did last week's, or they could lose to Marquette in the second round.
Of course, you do still need to pick three other Final Four teams. And I know you want reasons you can trust them.
Well first of all, it's important to know that you can't trust Kansas. Yes, the Jayhawks won the Big 12 championship again, but did you see how they did it? With lots and lots of frantic last-minute comebacks. I love Frank Mason and all, but that's too dangerous a formula for a one-and-done tournament. See: Kansas in last week's Big 12 tournament.
Speaking of which, don't blink or you might miss another Jayhawk getting suspended.
Fortunately, there is a nice reliable product right on the other side of the Midwest Region. Louisville coach Rick Pitino may not know about the NC-17 recruiting shenanigans that went on in his players' dormitory (or so he says), but he darn well knows how to win NCAA tournament games.
The Cardinals won 24 games against one of the nation's toughest schedules, they go 10 deep and they rank sixth in the country in defensive efficiency. They also catch a break in that the No. 3 seed, Oregon, is not quite as scary as it appeared most of the season what with star Chris Boucher lost to a knee injury. (Dillon Brooks, though — watch out.)
If you want, go ahead and place Villanova and Louisville in the championship game, and we'll find two other teams for them to beat in Phoenix.
For one, allow me to suggest North Carolina, another school from — wait for it — the ACC. The Tar Heels won the regular season championship in a conference that produced nine tourney teams as well as NIT favorite Syracuse.
Much like Villanova, the Tar Heels are extremely experienced. I sill remember those great UNC teams with Rasheed Wallace, Jerry Stackhouse and Kennedy Meeks.
The Tar Heels did draw a gauntlet in the South region what with Kentucky and UCLA the No. 2 and 3 seeds, but again, I ask — who do you trust? I don't see UNC losing before the Elite Eight, but I could see perennially pesky Wichita State toppling Kentucky and defensive-minded Cincinnati humbling Lonzo Ball (and his dad).
Finally, speaking of teams we don't trust, you might be wondering what to do with Mark Few's Best Gonzaga Team Yet ™. Lest you haven't heard, The No. 1 seed in the West is even better than the 2015 Gonzaga team which was even better than the 2013 Gonzaga team, which was even better than all the other ones that never reached a Final Four.
I do think Mark Few's Best Gonzaga Team Yet ™ is pretty darn good. It's hard to go 32-1 against air, much less Arizona, Florida, Iowa State, Saint Mary's and ... well, air. Nigel Williams-Goss is a stud. But if the goal here is to remain smart with our money, than it seems imprudent to bet on something that's never happened happening.
All of that being said, "things that have never happened" is a common theme in this region, and not just because the No. 8 seed is tourney virgin Northwestern. Like Few, the head coaches of the No. 2 (Arizona's Sean Miller), No. 3 (Florida State's Leonard Hamilton) and No. 5 (Notre Dame's Mike Brey) seeds have also all won a lot of games without ever reaching the Final Four.
The safest bet of the bunch is West Virginia's Bob Huggins, who's climbed that summit twice and happens to be coaching one of his best defensive teams yet (which is saying something). The Mountaineers will also help you check off a box — not being "that guy" who picks all No. 1 and 2 seeds — but without going completely off the reservation.
All told, you're putting your chips in four investments. One (Villanova) is the defending national champion. Another (West Virginia) is led by a coach with 813 career wins. And the other two (Louisville and North Carolina) finished first and tied for second in the nation's strongest conference.
With brackets, as with portfolios, there's no such thing as a guaranteed return. All in all, though, you should sleep pretty comfortably after hitting "submit" on this one.
