Bracket Watch: It's getting awfully crowded on the bubble

Published Feb. 24, 2017 10:19 a.m. ET

Stewart Mandel

At long last, several bubble teams racked up much-needed big wins this week. Syracuse (which knocked off Duke) and Providence (which won at Creighton) both moved into my bracket. Miami (which rallied to beat Virginia) and Seton Hall (which beat Xavier) both made themselves more comfortable.

Nevertheless, pickings are so slim that nearly any power-conference team currently sitting above .500 still has a puncher’s chance at an at-large berth. As evidence, 15-13 Vanderbilt, 15-13 Tennessee, 14-13 Clemson, 15-13 Pittsburgh and 16-13 Ohio State all sit among my first eight teams out. Seriously.

Many fans will say they’d rather see a mid-major with a better record get an opportunity before those mediocre big boys. The problem is, very few fit the bill.

Wichita State (26-4), despite holding just one RPI Top 50 win, would be one exception given it’s ranked in the Top 15 of advanced metrics like KenPom. But Missouri Valley co-leader Illinois State (24-5) doesn’t have as convincing an argument due to two sub-100 losses and a KenPom ranking in the 50s.

All of this will change, of course, once conference tournaments begin and a few upset champs steal bids. Sitting in the “last four in” today is hardly a place of comfort. But the good news for those teams on the fence is that even one big victory down the stretch may be enough to push them over the top.

A reminder: Selection Sunday is March 12, and the tourney begins March 14. The Final Four is April 1-3 in Phoenix.

* -- Denotes projected conference champion, automatic berth

This edition's bracket is Midwest vs. South and East vs. West in the national semifinals, based on the order of my No. 1 seeds.

BRACKET WATCH

MIDWEST REGION (KANSAS CITY)
Seed	Team	Location
1	Kansas*	at Tulsa
16	UC Irvine/New Orleans
8	Northwestern
9	VCU
4	Kentucky	at Milwaukee
13	Valparaiso*
5	Cincinnati
12	Vermont*
6	Wisconsin	at Indianapolis
11	Wake Forest/TCU
3	Butler
14	East Tennessee State*
7	Oklahoma State	at Indianapolis
10	Michigan State
2	Louisville
15	North Dakota*

SOUTH REGION (Memphis)
Seed	Team	Location
1	North Carolina*	at Greenville, SC
16	South Dakota*
8	Xavier
9	Michigan
4	UCLA	at Sacramento
13	Belmont*
5	Maryland
12	Middle Tennessee*
6	SMU*	at Orlando
11	Kansas State/Providence
3	Florida*
14	Bucknell*
7	Minnesota	at Tulsa
10	Wichita State*
2	Baylor
15	UNC Asheville*

EAST REGION (NEW YORK)
Seed	Team	Location
1	Villanova*	at Buffalo
16	NC Central*
8	Dayton*
9	Miami
4	West Virginia	at Buffalo
13	Monmouth*
5	Virginia
12	UNC Wilmington*
6	Saint Mary's	at Orlando
11	Seton Hall
3	Florida State
14	Princeton*
7	South Carolina	at Salt Lake City
10	Marquette
2	Arizona*
15	Florida Gulf Coast*

WEST REGION (SAN JOSE)
Seed	Team	Location
1	Gonzaga*	at Salt Lake City
16	Texas Southern/Mount St. Mary’s
8	Iowa State
9	USC
4	Purdue*	at Milwaukee
13	Nevada*
5	Notre Dame
12	UT Arlington*
6	Creighton	at Greenville, SC
11	Syracuse
3	Duke
14	Akron*
7	Virginia Tech	at Sacramento
10	Arkansas
2	Oregon
15	Cal State Bakersfield*

LAST FOUR BYES: Arkansas, Michigan State, Seton Hall, Syracuse

LAST FOUR IN: Providence, Kansas State, Wake Forest, TCU

FIRST FOUR OUT: Cal, Illinois State, Vanderbilt, Tennessee

NEXT FOUR OUT: Clemson, Illinois, Pittsburgh, Ohio State

MULTIPLE BID CONFERENCES: ACC (10), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), Big East (7), Pac-12 (4), SEC (4), A-10 (2), American (2), WCC (2)