All-Purpose Playbook: NFL Week 3 survivor pool analysis, picks and more

Welcome to the All-Purpose Playbook, a Buzzer column that is either (a) a guide to many things NFL related, or (b) a road map to hell. Check back here on Friday afternoons for survivor pool analysis, football picks, a smattering of GIFs and some nonsense. Follow me @brettsmiley and/or email me with any questions or comments at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com.


This past Sunday was the wrong day to be the writer of a column intended to focus mainly on NFL survivor pools.

In fact it may have been the worst day ever.

The Week 2 survivor pool carnage spanned coast to coast as the 6.5-point favorite Ravens broke down late in Oakland, the Saints wet the bed at home in the Superdome as 10-point favorites to the Buccaneers, the Dolphins fell short in Jacksonville and then the Colts got whacked in Indianapolis by the Jets on Monday night.

The six (6!!!) most popular picks in Yahoo! survivor pools, all of which we reviewed last week and some of which I approved, got wiped out (the Rams and Titans were the other two).

glad I took Pittsburgh after reading your article

— Deadly Venom (@i4jElway7) September 21, 2015

If you survived, well, don’t look back now. Run! Save yourself.

If you got waxed, well, you probably don’t want any further dissection of the massacre, so I’ll spare us that. Let’s take a coffee break.

This is all a long way of saying that for the remainder of the season I’m going to devote less space to the survivor game, make more traditional picks, throw in a dash of fantasy football and ill-advised teasers and anything else you might like to discuss.

Without further . . .


Take the Seahawks or Patriots.

to the tune of 85 percent as of Friday. Too much!

via @predictmachine: Arizona is 1-7 ATS as home favorites against the 49ers (dating back to 1978).


@predictmachine, dating back to last year, teams that face Seattle are now 0-11 straight-up and 1-10 ATS in their next game.


(Go here if you need an explanation on how teaser bets work.)

The scorecard read 1-2 on the straight picks last week but the Ill-Advised Teaser debuted at 1-0 as we needed every bit of the stretched lines on Seattle +10.5 and Texans +10. They won’t always be comfortable. Another two-game, 7-point teaser this week and just pile on two sides we already like, taking the Rams to +8 and 49ers to +13.5.


Last week I inadvertently created “saucy mode” and it hit so that’s now the name of our 3-game teaser. So let’s stick with that and make it a mole sauce by tossing in the Browns which are 3.5-point favorites at home to the Oakland Raiders with Josh McCown set to start. I can’t get jacked up to lay 3.5 outside of pool play but flip that around to the Browns getting 3.5 and I think we’re cooking. The Browns defense served the Titans some humble pie last week and they’ll have a live home crowd looking for more on Sunday. Anyhow, I’m thinking the offense can do enough to keep a field goal game.


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