Each Tuesday, WhatIfSports.com’s NFL simulation engine generates predictions and box scores for every NFL game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team’s likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 501 times.
To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating games on Thursdays through the season.
Note: Our predictions use the latest available team and player information, while NFL SimMatchup includes all players that were or will be available at any point during the 2016 season so that theoretical and "what if" scenarios can be simulated.
Week 8 in Review
Our NFL simulation engine had its best week yet picking games straight up, choosing the correct winner 73.1 percent of the time (9-3-1). That included a correct pick of the Game of the Week, with the Chiefs taking down the Colts. Unfortunately, picking against the spread proved to be a little trickier, as the engine went just 3-5-1 (38.9 percent).
Nailed It: Broncos 27 – Chargers 19. For the third straight week, our engine almost predicted a game’s final score and winner perfectly. Our predictions had the Broncos beating the Chargers by an average score of 25-19, only two points off the real final.
Wide Right: Bears 20 – Vikings 10. Let’s just say this one was really hard to see coming. We predicted the Vikings to win 78.6 percent of the time, by an average score of 27-17, making this our "Lock Pick" and survival pool choice of the week. The NFL is wacky sometimes.
Eagles at Giants: This is a classic rivalry, and this game could have major playoff implications. The Giants have struggled to mount consistent offense, but we have them narrowly squeaking out a victory over the visiting Eagles in this one 57.3 percent of the time by a low average score of 21-19.
Week 9 Against the Spread Pick
Steelers (+1) over Ravens: We’re banking on the return of Ben Roethlisberger this week, which should make this line look a little silly. If Big Ben’s knee is good to go, the Steelers offense should be locked and loaded, as we have the Steelers winning this one 68.9 percent of the time by an average score of 30-24.
Fantasy Start — Davante Parker, MIA: He’s a boom or bust type option, but a matchup against the sad pass defense of the Jets should bode well for his fantasy chances. We have him projected to score 10.3 fantasy points, making him a WR1 in Week 9.
Fantasy Sit — Duke Johnson, RB: He had a nice game in garbage time last week, but our projections aren’t as optimistic for his chances to rack up the receiving stats against Dallas. Johnson is projected to score just 5.0 fantasy points, leaving him better suited for your bench than in your lineup.
Fantasy Add — Charcandrick West, KC: This looks like a last man standing situation in Kansas City with Spencer Ware possibly missing this week with a concussion and Jamaal Charles still dealing with a knee injury. We have West scoring 17.7 points against the hapless Jags in Week 9, making him a strong RB1 candidate.