Each Tuesday, WhatIfSports.com’s NFL simulation engine generates predictions and box scores for every NFL game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team’s likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 501 times.
To account for injuries and roster moves announced late in the week, we will be re-simulating games on Thursdays through the season.
Note: Our predictions use the latest available team and player information, while NFL SimMatchup includes all players that were or will be available at any point during the 2016 season so that theoretical and "what if" scenarios can be simulated.
Week 11 in Review
The NFL simulation engine had another successful week picking winners. Our engine went 10-4 (71.4 percent) picking games straight up in Week 11, but picking against the spread was a little trickier (5-6, 45.5 percent). That being said, we correctly predicted the Game of the Week (Seahawks over Eagles), and our Lock Pick (Patriots over 49ers) was right on the money as well.
Nailed It: Patriots 30 – 49ers 17. We predicted the Patriots to win this game 79.4 percent of the time by an average score of 29-19, so we were within a couple points of the actual game total for both teams.
Wide Right: Buccaneers 19 – Chiefs 17. We predicted the Chiefs to get it done offensively and win 64.8 percent of the time by an average score of 25-20, but the Chiefs sputtered in the red zone and the Bucs pulled off the upset.
Panthers at Raiders: The red-hot Raiders will play host to a desperate Panthers team in need of a win, but our predictions have Cam Newton and company going home unhappy. We have Derek Carr and the Raiders winning this one 68.4 percent of the time by an average score of 25-19.
Week 12 Against the Spread Pick
Titans (-4.5) cover against Bears: Our engine has the Titans pulling off the road win in Chicago by a huge margin, in large part because Chicago is down to its third-string quarterback after losing Jay Cutler to injury. Our engine has the Titans winning a whopping 78.3 percent of the time by an average score of 28-18, making the Titans a big time cover candidate.
Fantasy Start — Eli Manning, QB: It hasn’t been pretty for most of this season for Eli, but a matchup against the Browns is too juicy to pass up. The Browns have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league and the second most passing yards. Eli’s floor is awfully high, and our projections have him as the fifth highest scoring player of Week 12.
Fantasy Sit — Donte Moncrief, WR: It might be tough to sit the touchdown scoring machine, but with Andrew Luck looking doubtful to play this Thursday, Moncrief may not get enough love from Scott Tolzien to justify starting him. Our projections have Moncrief scoring just 6.8fantasy points, making him more of a back-end Flex option than anything else.
Fantasy Add — Brandon LaFell, CIN: With A.J. Green out this week at the very least and Giovani Bernard done for the season, someone will need to catch the ball for the Bengals. A good portion of those targets could go to LaFell, who is immediately the top outside receiving threat for Andy Dalton in a good matchup against the run-stingy Ravens.