Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com’s college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team’s likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.
Week 3 in Review
Our computers continue to print out winners. Last week, we won 85.5 percent of the games (59-10). When it came to teams in the Top 25, the computer was 18-6 (75 percent winners). The simulator even predicted my Toledo Rockets would beat Iowa State.
One of the top teams in the country, the Spartans, was a strong favorite (-24.5) against the Falcons. However, our simulation machine saw this game being closer than the experts predicted. The final score was 35-21. The computer said 32.2-21.6, Michigan State.
Week 3 Lowlight: Ole Miss at Alabama
On the down side, Alabama was predicted to beat the Rebels by an average score of 28.2-23.5. However, Ole Miss shocked the system and the college football world (other than those in Oxford, MS) by defeating the Crimson Tide, 43-37. Chad Kelly threw for 341 yards and 3 TDs and is now 3-0.
Week 4 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups
No. 9 UCLA at No. 16 Arizona
Two undefeated Pac-12 South teams square off in Tuscon. Arizona has scored at least 42 points in each of its three games this season, but has yet to face a tough opponent. The Bruins are also 3-0 and narrowly avoided defeat by BYU last week (24-23). After 101 simulations, our computers say UCLA will be victorious 53.8 percent of the time by an average score of 30.4-29.8.
No. 18 Utah at No. 13 Oregon
The third undefeated team in the Pac-12 South, Utah, also faces a ranked opponent in Week 4, the Ducks. Oregon credits Michigan State with its only loss of the season. However, like the Wildcats, Oregon has beaten subpar squads. The Utes conquered Michigan and Fresno State amongst their three wins. With the computers playing this matchup 101 times, the Ducks won a surprising 64.4 percent of the time by an average score of 30.9-27.0.
Week 4 Upset Pick
Tennessee (+2) at Florida
The Gators are 3-0 and host the 2-1 Volunteers in Week 4. Vegas has Florida as a two-point favorite at home. The computers see it differently. Tennessee wins 66.3 percent of the simulations by a final score of 26.8-25.0. While Florida is without a loss, it barely defeated East Carolina (31-24) and Kentucky (14-9). The Volunteers’ only loss is to Oklahoma. In their other contests, Tennessee produced at least 55 points.