WhatIfSports college football Week 4 predictions: UCLA stays unbeaten at Arizona

A week after rallying for a 24-23 win over No. 19 BYU, the Bruins are predicted to defeat No. 16 Arizona.

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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com’s college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team’s likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.

Week 3 in Review

Our computers continue to print out winners. Last week, we won 85.5 percent of the games (59-10). When it came to teams in the Top 25, the computer was 18-6 (75 percent winners). The simulator even predicted my Toledo Rockets would beat Iowa State.

Track our 2015 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 77.6 percent of all games involving FBS teams.

Week 3 Highlight: Air Force at Michigan State

College Football Pick 'Em!

One of the top teams in the country, the Spartans, was a strong favorite (-24.5) against the Falcons. However, our simulation machine saw this game being closer than the experts predicted. The final score was 35-21. The computer said 32.2-21.6, Michigan State.

Week 3 Lowlight: Ole Miss at Alabama

On the down side, Alabama was predicted to beat the Rebels by an average score of 28.2-23.5. However, Ole Miss shocked the system and the college football world (other than those in Oxford, MS) by defeating the Crimson Tide, 43-37. Chad Kelly threw for 341 yards and 3 TDs and is now 3-0.

Week 4 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups

No. 9 UCLA at No. 16 Arizona

Two undefeated Pac-12 South teams square off in Tuscon. Arizona has scored at least 42 points in each of its three games this season, but has yet to face a tough opponent. The Bruins are also 3-0 and narrowly avoided defeat by BYU last week (24-23). After 101 simulations, our computers say UCLA will be victorious 53.8 percent of the time by an average score of 30.4-29.8.

No. 18 Utah at No. 13 Oregon

The third undefeated team in the Pac-12 South, Utah, also faces a ranked opponent in Week 4, the Ducks. Oregon credits Michigan State with its only loss of the season. However, like the Wildcats, Oregon has beaten subpar squads. The Utes conquered Michigan and Fresno State amongst their three wins. With the computers playing this matchup 101 times, the Ducks won a surprising 64.4 percent of the time by an average score of 30.9-27.0.

Week 4 Upset Pick

Tennessee (+2) at Florida

The Gators are 3-0 and host the 2-1 Volunteers in Week 4. Vegas has Florida as a two-point favorite at home. The computers see it differently. Tennessee wins 66.3 percent of the simulations by a final score of 26.8-25.0. While Florida is without a loss, it barely defeated East Carolina (31-24) and Kentucky (14-9). The Volunteers’ only loss is to Oklahoma. In their other contests, Tennessee produced at least 55 points.

College Football Week 4 Predictions
Matchup Win % Avg. Score  
Samford Bulldogs 5.0 6.3 Box Score
@ Louisville Cardinals 95.0 45.3  
Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens 5.0 6.7 Box Score
@ North Carolina Tar Heels 95.0 50.8  
Northern Illinois Huskies 47.5 25.6 Box Score
@ Boston College Eagles 52.5 26.4  
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 58.4 29.2 Box Score
@ Duke Blue Devils 41.6 26.3  
Boise State Broncos 62.4 25.8 Box Score
@ Virginia Cavaliers 37.6 24.9  
Indiana Hoosiers 66.8 29.5 Box Score
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons 33.2 24.8  
LSU Tigers 79.2 31.1 Box Score
@ Syracuse Orange 20.8 21.0  
Central Michigan Chippewas 17.8 22.3 Box Score
@ Michigan State Spartans 82.2 33.8  
Western Michigan Broncos 19.8 25.2 Box Score
@ Ohio State Buckeyes 80.2 37.5  
North Texas Mean Green 24.8 20.8 Box Score
@ Iowa Hawkeyes 75.2 29.8  
Ohio Bobcats 28.7 23.2 Box Score
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers 71.3 29.7  
Ball State Cardinals 28.7 24.9 Box Score
@ Northwestern Wildcats 71.3 31.0  
San Diego State Aztecs 31.2 21.8 Box Score
@ Penn State Nittany Lions 68.8 27.9  
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 32.7 25.1 Box Score
@ Wisconsin Badgers 67.3 30.2  
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 35.6 28.0 Box Score
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers 64.4 32.9  
Kansas Jayhawks 43.6 24.8 Box Score
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights 56.4 27.0  
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 45.5 28.9 Box Score
@ Illinois Fighting Illini 54.5 30.8  
BYU Cougars 49.4 25.7 Box Score
@ Michigan Wolverines 50.6 26.4  
Bowling Green Falcons 57.4 31.0 Box Score
@ Purdue Boilermakers 42.6 30.5  
Army West Point Black Knights 36.6 24.9 Box Score
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles 63.4 29.1  
Nevada Wolf Pack 45.0 30.3 Box Score
@ Buffalo Bulls 55.0 31.3  
Arkansas State Red Wolves 45.5 29.6 Box Score
@ Toledo Rockets 54.5 31.7  
Marshall Thundering Herd 62.4 32.7 Box Score
@ Kent State Golden Flashes 37.6 28.5  
Nicholls Colonels 5.0 7.2 Box Score
@ Colorado Buffaloes 95.0 46.2  
Utah Utes 35.6 27.0 Box Score
@ Oregon Ducks 64.4 30.9  
USC Trojans 53.5 29.8 Box Score
@ Arizona State Sun Devils 46.5 28.4  
California Golden Bears 53.7 31.0 Box Score
@ Washington Huskies 46.3 29.4  
UCLA Bruins 53.8 30.4 Box Score
@ Arizona Wildcats 46.2 29.8  
Stanford Cardinal 56.9 30.5 Box Score
@ Oregon State Beavers 43.1 28.0  
Southern University Jaguars 5.0 7.7 Box Score
@ Georgia Bulldogs 95.0 55.5  
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 11.9 19.3 Box Score
@ Alabama Crimson Tide 88.1 33.0  
Vanderbilt Commodores 22.8 21.9 Box Score
@ Ole Miss Rebels 77.2 30.8  
UCF Knights 33.7 22.4 Box Score
@ South Carolina Gamecocks 66.3 27.5  
Mississippi State Bulldogs 48.5 28.1 Box Score
@ Auburn Tigers 51.5 28.4  
Missouri Tigers 61.9 28.3 Box Score
@ Kentucky Wildcats 38.1 25.0  
Texas A&M Aggies 63.4 31.9 Box Score
@ Arkansas Razorbacks 36.6 27.9  
Tennessee Volunteers 66.3 26.8 Box Score
@ Florida Gators 33.7 22.8  
Massachusetts Minutemen 18.8 25.0 Box Score
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish 81.2 35.8  
Rice Owls 23.8 25.4 Box Score
@ Baylor Bears 76.2 35.1  
Maryland Terrapins 42.6 24.7 Box Score
@ West Virginia Mountaineers 57.4 28.7  
Oklahoma State Cowboys 60.4 29.8 Box Score
@ Texas Longhorns 39.6 26.0  
TCU Horned Frogs 65.3 35.7 Box Score
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders 34.7 32.0  
Incarnate Word Cardinals 5.0 7.9 Box Score
@ UTEP Miners 95.0 44.5  
Miami (OH) RedHawks 33.7 30.5 Box Score
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 66.3 35.1  
FIU Golden Panthers 42.6 26.3 Box Score
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 57.4 29.0  
Florida Atlantic Owls 61.4 33.0 Box Score
@ Charlotte 49ers 38.6 28.3  
Appalachian State Mountaineers 65.3 33.1 Box Score
@ Old Dominion Monarchs 34.7 29.6  
Colorado State Rams 74.3 30.8 Box Score
@ UTSA Roadrunners 25.7 23.6  
Idaho State Bengals 5.0 8.3 Box Score
@ UNLV Rebels 95.0 41.3  
New Mexico Lobos 51.6 32.4 Box Score
@ Wyoming Cowboys 48.4 31.7  
Fresno State Bulldogs 54.5 31.3 Box Score
@ San Jose State Spartans 45.5 30.7  
Akron Zips 46.5 28.5 Box Score
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns 53.5 30.5  
North Carolina State Wolfpack 58.9 30.9 Box Score
@ South Alabama Jaguars 41.1 27.3  
Georgia Southern Eagles 70.3 32.4 Box Score
@ Idaho Vandals 29.7 24.3  
James Madison Dukes 5.0 7.7 Box Score
@ SMU Mustangs 95.0 44.1  
Texas State Bobcats 33.7 27.9 Box Score
@ Houston Cougars 66.3 33.5  
Cincinnati Bearcats 45.5 31.9 Box Score
@ Memphis Tigers 54.5 32.3  
Virginia Tech Hokies 62.4 29.5 Box Score
@ East Carolina Pirates 37.6 24.7  
Navy Midshipmen 73.3 31.4 Box Score
@ Connecticut Huskies 26.7 24.7  

In addition, view our Week 4 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.