WhatIfSports college football Week 14 predictions: Clemson beats VT, improves Playoff odds

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com’s college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team’s likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.

Week 13 in Review

Yet again, our simulations correctly predicted the Game of the Week. We are now 11-2 in those games. Unfortunately, the Upset of the Week did not come through. That record has fallen back to .500 (6-6). Overall, 75.3 percent winners (613-201).

Nailed It: Ohio State 30 – Michigan 27

The computer simulations suggested a tight game and if you took the points (-3.5), you won. We predicted OSU to win 52.9 percent of the time, by an average score of 26.2-25.6.

Wide Right: Air Force 27 – Boise State 20

This game came down to the wire as Boise State was stuffed at the goal line in the fourth quarter. Brett Rypien fumbled inside the five yard line and Air Force recovered. We predicted Boise State to win 69.8 percent of the time, by an average score of 31.6-25.5.

Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 80.0 percent of all games involving FBS teams.

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Week 14 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups

No. 9 Colorado at No. 4 Washington

The Buffaloes defense stepped up against the Utes and earned a spot in the Pac-12 championship. However, Washington is a team on a mission. Its only stumble was to USC, which also beat Colorado. Other than that loss, the Huskies have produced at least 31 points per game. Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning has thrown at least two TDs in every win. So, if Colorado wants to win: hold Washington under 31 points and don’t allow Browning to throw more than one TD pass. Yeah, our computers don’t think that will happen either. Washington wins 58.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 30.0-25.7.

No. 11 Oklahoma State at No. 7 Oklahoma

The Big 12 lucked out by getting the two best teams in the conference playing for a championship in the final week of the season. The Sooners have an explosive offense. They are tied for first in scoring with Louisville, averaging 45.3 points per game. Baker Mayfield struggled in his last game (9-15 for 169 yards against West Virginia), but has still thrown at least two TDs in every game. Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon can both hit the 100-yard rushing mark, too. The Cowboys are no slouch and average 40.4 points per game. Mason Rudolph to James Washington is as dangerous as a combo as Mayfield to Dede Westbrook. OU has the better running game, though, and our computers favor the Sooners. Oklahoma wins 51.5 percent of the time, by an average score of 28.9-28.8.

No. 1 Alabama at No. 15 Florida

Nick Saban’s boys are 24-point favorites in the SEC championship. The Gators lost last week to their in-state rivals, 31-13. Florida was great against the running game, but Dalvin Cook didn’t care. He ran for 153 yards. Bama is better in its air attack, but the Gators allow only 158 yards per game through the air (third-best in FBS). The computers don’t seem to mind and the Tide should continue to roll. Alabama wins 62.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 25.6-21.8.

No. 3 Clemson at No. 19 Virginia Tech

After Clemson’s loss to Pittsburgh, the Tigers amped their dominance in order to get votes in the Top Four. Clemson just needs one more impressive win to lock in its spot. Deshaun Watson threw six TD passes last week against South Carolina. His counterpart, Jerod Evans, can get it done both in the air and on the ground. Evans has rushed for a TD in four consecutive games. Our projections say Watson will win this showdown. Clemson wins 54.5 percent of the time, by an average score of 28.0-25.0.

No. 6 Wisconsin at No. 8 Penn State

Though many believe Ohio State is guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoffs, it will ultimately be up to the committee to decide. With the Buckeyes watching from home this week, Penn State and Wisconsin will get their chance to impress the voters and leapfrog OSU. Also, if enough teams lose ahead of them, the winner of this game could join the Bucks in the playoffs. Wisconsin’s defense has been dominant. Since their loss to Ohio State, the Badgers haven’t allowed more than 20 points in a contest. The Nittany Lions have won eight straight games after being demolished by Michigan. Penn State has also scored 38 or more points in six of the past seven games. Our simulations favor the Badgers, with Wisconsin winning 56.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 26.2-24.2.

College Football Week 14 Predictions
Matchup Win % Avg. Score  
Clemson Tigers 54.5 28.0 Box Score
@ Virginia Tech Hokies 45.5 25.0  
Wisconsin Badgers 56.4 26.2 Box Score
@ Penn State Nittany Lions 43.6 24.2  
Western Michigan Broncos 70.3 34.7 Box Score
@ Ohio Bobcats 29.7 26.6  
Colorado Buffaloes 41.6 25.7 Box Score
@ Washington Huskies 58.4 30.0  
Alabama Crimson Tide 62.4 25.6 Box Score
@ Florida Gators 37.6 21.8  
Baylor Bears 34.7 25.7 Box Score
@ West Virginia Mountaineers 65.3 30.6  
Kansas State Wildcats 48.2 26.1 Box Score
@ TCU Horned Frogs 51.8 26.8  
Oklahoma State Cowboys 48.5 28.8 Box Score
@ Oklahoma Sooners 51.5 28.9  
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 48.7 33.0 Box Score
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 51.3 33.9  
San Diego State Aztecs 59.4 30.3 Box Score
@ Wyoming Cowboys 40.6 27.5  
Georgia State Panthers 46.3 30.2 Box Score
@ Idaho Vandals 53.7 31.0  
New Mexico State Aggies 47.5 33.2 Box Score
@ South Alabama Jaguars 52.5 33.9  
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns 51.9 29.2 Box Score
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 48.1 28.5  
Troy Trojans 59.4 30.9 Box Score
@ Georgia Southern Eagles 40.6 28.7  
Arkansas State Red Wolves 62.4 32.6 Box Score
@ Texas State Bobcats 37.6 28.9  
Temple Owls 42.6 28.7 Box Score
@ Navy Midshipmen 57.4 30.6  

In addition, view our Week 14 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.