WhatIfSports college football Week 12 predictions: Oklahoma picks up win over Mountaineers

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com’s college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team’s likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.

Week 11 in Review

Game of the Week may as well be called Lock of the Week. Our simulating computer is now 9-1 after Ohio State won the GotW. Even our struggling It was a good news/bad news week for our computer simulations. While we lost our Game of the Week (USC/Washington), we were successful in the Upset of the Week (WVU/Texas). We are still 9-2 in our marquee game and an acceptable .500 (5-5) in the upsets.

Nailed It: Iowa State 31 – Kansas 24

Matt Campbell received his first Big 12 win last week. Freshman running back David Montgomery rushed for 169 yards in the win. We predicted Iowa State to win 61.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 26.8-22.4.

Wide Right: Pitt 43 – Clemson 42

Not many thought the Panthers could give the Tigers their first loss of the season. Nathan Peterman threw five TDs for Pittsburgh and Chris Blewitt connected on a 48-yard game-winning field goal. We predicted Clemson to win 70.3 percent of the time, by an average score of 28.8-22.2.

Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 80.0 percent of all games involving FBS teams.

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Week 12 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups

No. 20 Washington State at No. 12 Colorado

If the season ended today, this would be the matchup for the Pac-12 Championship. The Cougars are undefeated in conference play (7-0) and the Buffs have a half-game lead over USC. After starting the season 0-2, WSU has won eight straight games. However, if the Cougars want to win a ninth game, they’ll have to do it without senior wide receiver River Cracraft. He tore is ACL in last week’s win over Cal. Cracraft was second on the team in receptions, yards and TDs. He tallied three TDs in his final game. That should mean more looks to Gabe Marks. The senior WR has scored six TDs in the past four games and has notched at least one TD in nine of ten games this year. It will be a tough task to produce against this Colorado defense. The Buffalos have allowed 17.9 points per game (ninth-best in FBS) and only 176.3 passing yards per game (10th-best). The Cougs pass for 385.5 yards per contest. Something has to give. Colorado wins this simulation 52.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 31.1-30.9.

No. 21 Florida at No. 16 LSU

In October, Hurricane Matthew forced this game to be pushed back and now we are in store for an exciting final two weeks of the regular season. Much like the Colorado pass defense against WSU’s air attack, the Tigers of LSU will look to do their damage on the ground against one of the best run defenses in football. The Gators allow only 111.4 rushing yards per game. Leonard Fournette averages 133.8 yards per game and his backup, Derrius Guice, has an impressive 97.9 rushing yards per contest. Florida is looking to secure a slot in the SEC championship game, but Tennessee is lurking. The ground-and-pound of LSU will be too much for Florida as LSU wins 50.8 percent of the time, by an average score of 24.6-24.5.

No. 8 Oklahoma at No. 10 West Virginia

We don’t have a Big 12 championship game yet, but the ending to the 2016 season might inadvertently create one this year. Oklahoma currently leads the conference with a 7-0 record. West Virginia is one game back, along with Oklahoma State. The Sooners’ final two games are against the Mountaineers and Cowboys. A win in both games would lock up the Big 12. If WVU wins this game, some chaos could ensue. Oklahoma State already defeated the Mountaineers earlier this season. As for this week’s game, the Sooners will have their full complement of running backs, again. Last week, both Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon ran for over 100 yards and each scored at least one TD. West Virginia will continue to rely on quarterback Skyler Howard. He struggled last week against Texas (three interceptions), but the Sooners allow 297.1 passing yards per game (eighth-most in FBS). Prepare for an exciting conclusion to the regular season in the Big 12 as OU wins our simulations 51.1 percent of the time, by an average score of 26.4-26.0.

Week 12 Upset Pick

Virginia (+1) over Notre Dame

The Hokies might’ve fallen from the Top 25 in the AP poll after losing to Georgia Tech, 30-20, last week, but VT still has the firepower on offense to right the ship. The 7-3 Hokies are fighting for a berth in the ACC Championship game. Dual-threat quarterback Jerod Evans will be the deciding factor in this contest. He leads the team in rushing with 608 yards on 132 carries (4.6 yards per carry). He’ll also look to Isaiah Ford and Bucky Hodges in the passing game against a defense that allows 188.5 passing yards per game. VT wins 51.9 percent of the time, by an average score of 27.5-27.0.

College Football Week 12 Predictions
Matchup Win % Avg. Score  
Citadel Bulldogs 5.0 6.0 Box Score
@ North Carolina Tar Heels 95.0 48.4  
Connecticut Huskies 38.6 24.1 Box Score
@ Boston College Eagles 61.4 25.3  
Virginia Cavaliers 44.6 26.2 Box Score
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 55.4 28.9  
Duke Blue Devils 47.5 26.2 Box Score
@ Pittsburgh Panthers 52.5 27.8  
Clemson Tigers 54.5 27.3 Box Score
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons 45.5 23.9  
Miami (FL) Hurricanes 61.4 28.0 Box Score
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack 38.6 24.8  
Florida State Seminoles 68.3 28.0 Box Score
@ Syracuse Orange 31.7 22.6  
Indiana Hoosiers 40.6 27.7 Box Score
@ Michigan Wolverines 59.4 30.9  
Maryland Terrapins 48.3 28.6 Box Score
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers 51.7 28.8  
Iowa Hawkeyes 60.9 29.0 Box Score
@ Illinois Fighting Illini 39.1 23.6  
Northwestern Wildcats 62.4 25.4 Box Score
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers 37.6 22.4  
Penn State Nittany Lions 63.4 27.8 Box Score
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights 36.6 23.9  
Ohio State Buckeyes 67.3 28.1 Box Score
@ Michigan State Spartans 32.7 24.5  
Wisconsin Badgers 77.2 29.3 Box Score
@ Purdue Boilermakers 22.8 21.9  
Buffalo Bulls 26.7 25.8 Box Score
@ Western Michigan Broncos 73.3 34.0  
Ball State Cardinals 38.6 29.7 Box Score
@ Toledo Rockets 61.4 33.5  
Kent State Golden Flashes 44.5 28.0 Box Score
@ Bowling Green Falcons 55.5 29.7  
Northern Illinois Huskies 51.5 31.6 Box Score
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles 48.5 31.0  
Ohio Bobcats 52.5 30.8 Box Score
@ Central Michigan Chippewas 47.5 29.8  
Oregon Ducks 40.6 25.0 Box Score
@ Utah Utes 59.4 28.4  
Arizona State Sun Devils 41.6 27.9 Box Score
@ Washington Huskies 58.4 29.8  
Arizona Wildcats 45.8 27.5 Box Score
@ Oregon State Beavers 54.2 28.7  
Washington State Cougars 47.6 30.9 Box Score
@ Colorado Buffaloes 52.4 31.1  
Stanford Cardinal 52.3 31.7 Box Score
@ California Golden Bears 47.7 30.7  
USC Trojans 56.4 31.2 Box Score
@ UCLA Bruins 43.6 28.9  
Austin Peay Governors 5.0 6.6 Box Score
@ Kentucky Wildcats 95.0 47.9  
Chattanooga Mocs 5.0 8.0 Box Score
@ Alabama Crimson Tide 95.0 51.7  
Alabama A&M Bulldogs 5.0 8.4 Box Score
@ Auburn Tigers 95.0 48.5  
Western Carolina Catamounts 5.0 7.6 Box Score
@ South Carolina Gamecocks 95.0 46.9  
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns 29.7 25.4 Box Score
@ Georgia Bulldogs 70.3 31.6  
Missouri Tigers 32.7 21.0 Box Score
@ Tennessee Volunteers 67.3 27.2  
UTSA Roadrunners 32.7 24.7 Box Score
@ Texas A&M Aggies 67.3 30.9  
Florida Gators 49.2 24.5 Box Score
@ LSU Tigers 50.8 24.6  
Arkansas Razorbacks 59.4 27.3 Box Score
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs 40.6 26.0  
Ole Miss Rebels 61.4 28.4 Box Score
@ Vanderbilt Commodores 38.6 24.2  
Morgan State Bears 5.0 8.4 Box Score
@ Army West Point Black Knights 95.0 45.3  
Massachusetts Minutemen 21.8 23.9 Box Score
@ BYU Cougars 78.2 34.1  
Virginia Tech Hokies 51.9 27.5 Box Score
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish 48.1 27.0  
Oklahoma State Cowboys 47.5 29.0 Box Score
@ TCU Horned Frogs 52.5 29.6  
Oklahoma Sooners 51.1 26.4 Box Score
@ West Virginia Mountaineers 48.9 26.0  
Kansas State Wildcats 57.4 28.2 Box Score
@ Baylor Bears 42.6 27.0  
Texas Tech Red Raiders 66.3 33.9 Box Score
@ Iowa State Cyclones 33.7 27.7  
Texas Longhorns 73.3 29.5 Box Score
@ Kansas Jayhawks 26.7 19.9  
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 44.6 28.3 Box Score
@ North Texas Mean Green 55.4 31.2  
Old Dominion Monarchs 52.6 28.7 Box Score
@ Florida Atlantic Owls 47.4 28.3  
Marshall Thundering Herd 56.1 31.0 Box Score
@ FIU Golden Panthers 43.9 29.3  
UTEP Miners 59.4 32.3 Box Score
@ Rice Owls 40.6 29.2  
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 64.9 29.5 Box Score
@ Charlotte 49ers 35.1 27.0  
UNLV Rebels 20.8 25.2 Box Score
@ Boise State Broncos 79.2 34.1  
New Mexico Lobos 53.5 27.7 Box Score
@ Colorado State Rams 46.5 25.7  
San Diego State Aztecs 53.5 29.7 Box Score
@ Wyoming Cowboys 46.5 28.6  
Utah State Aggies 55.2 30.7 Box Score
@ Nevada Wolf Pack 44.8 29.5  
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 58.4 29.2 Box Score
@ Fresno State Bulldogs 41.6 28.4  
Air Force Falcons 60.4 29.5 Box Score
@ San Jose State Spartans 39.6 26.6  
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 30.7 26.8 Box Score
@ Appalachian State Mountaineers 69.3 33.1  
Arkansas State Red Wolves 42.6 25.9 Box Score
@ Troy Trojans 57.4 30.2  
Texas State Bobcats 47.5 32.4 Box Score
@ New Mexico State Aggies 52.5 33.3  
Georgia Southern Eagles 56.4 31.6 Box Score
@ Georgia State Panthers 43.6 29.7  
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 52.0 30.6 Box Score
@ UCF Knights 48.0 29.3  
South Florida Bulls 56.4 29.2 Box Score
@ SMU Mustangs 43.6 26.5  
Memphis Tigers 57.0 30.0 Box Score
@ Cincinnati Bearcats 43.0 27.8  
Louisville Cardinals 57.4 27.6 Box Score
@ Houston Cougars 42.6 24.4  
Navy Midshipmen 61.5 31.0 Box Score
@ East Carolina Pirates 38.5 27.2  
Temple Owls 71.8 31.8 Box Score
@ Tulane Green Wave 28.2 23.8  

In addition, view our Week 12 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.