Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com’s college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team’s likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.
Week 10 in Review
Game of the Week may as well be called Lock of the Week. Our simulating computer is now 9-1 after Ohio State won the GotW. Even our struggling Upset of the Week was a winner last week, as Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph passed all over Kansas State.
Nailed It: Indiana 33 – Rutgers 27
After trailing by 11 points in the third quarter, the Hoosiers rallied behind Devine Redding. He scored one rushing TD and one receiving TD as Indiana defeated Rutgers by six points. We predicted IU to win 55.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 30.6-27.3.
Wide Right: Mississippi State 35 – Texas A&M 28
The Aggies lost their first game of the season as the Bulldogs stunned A&M. Both Nick Fitzgerald and Aeris Williams tallied over 100 rushing yards and at least one TD on the ground. We predicted Texas A&M to win 62.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.3-25.5.
Every Top 25 team is playing this week, but only one game involves two ranked teams. The Sooners could have given up after losing two of their first three games, but they didn’t. Instead, they chose to wipe the slate clean as they entered conference play. Now, the Sooners are winners of six straight games and currently lead the Big 12. Last week, without Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon, Baker Mayfield put the team on his shoulders. He threw for 328 yards and four TDs. Mayfield has thrown at least four touchdowns in four consecutive games. Baylor has the difficult task of shaking off back-to-back losses to Texas and TCU. The Bears’ season isn’t over yet, though. They sit fourth in the Big 12, but still have games against two teams ahead of them in the standings: Oklahoma and West Virginia. Baylor already owns a win over Oklahoma State, currently ranked second in the conference. It is still possible for the Bears to win the Big 12 title. However, one more loss will dash all hopes. When our computer simulated the matchup, OU won 57.3 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.5-27.7.
USC at No. 4 Washington
We’re deviating from the normal "two ranked teams" format on this one. The Washington Huskies remain unbeaten and host USC on Saturday night on FOX. With Texas A&M’s loss last Saturday, Washington is now one of four undefeated teams left from the Power 5 conferences. This week, the Trojans are on the docket. USC is led by freshman quarterback Sam Dardold and sophomore running back Ronald Jones II. Last week, Jones ran for 171 yards and four TDs against Oregon. He’s tallied at least 170 rushing yards in back-to-back games. With Jones carrying the rock last Saturday, Dardold wasn’t needed. However, in the two previous matchups, he produced five TD passes apiece. Washington also has a young QB/RB tandem. Sophomores Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin make this Huskies offense move. Gaskin has tallied a rushing touchdown in five straight games. As for Browning, he threw six TD passes last week. He’s accomplished that twice in the past four contests. The simulations believe the Huskies will keep a zero in the loss column. Washington wins 55.0 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.5-26.2.
Week 11 Upset Pick
West Virginia (+2) over Texas
The Mountaineers have only faltered once this season, yet Vegas has them losing to four-loss Texas this week. West Virginia is led by Skyler Howard. The senior quarterback, who’s from Texas, has gotten it done on the ground as well as through the air. Howard has registered five rushing touchdowns in the past four games. In WVU’s only loss of the season, Howard threw two interceptions. In games where he keeps it to one or none, the Mountaineers win. This season, the Longhorns have only picked off opposing quarterbacks five times. WVU wins 53.5 percent of the time, by an average score of 26.8-25.5.