WhatIfSports 2014 College Football Week 3 Predictions

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com’s NCAA college football simulation engine provides game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team’s chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. 

Check out our 2014 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team’s roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team’s game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Georgia at South Carolina

What a soft Week 3 college football schedule we have ahead of us. It’s so depressing, fans should cue up the Debbie Downer YouTube clip and womp-wahhh! Our game of the week – Georgia at South Carolina – is the only matchup that features two teams ranked inside the Top 25.

We’ll begin with the Gamecocks and the team’s sluggish start to their 2014 campaign.

On top of former South Carolina defensive stud Jadeveon Clowney tearing his meniscus in his NFL debut, the top pick’s alma mater was *this* close to starting the season 0-2. The pass-heavy East Carolina Pirates only trailed by four at the half and closed within seven points early in the fourth quarter before SC quarterback Dylan Thompson engineered an 18-play, 86-yard, 10-plus-minute drive that led to a field goal and pushed the Gamecocks’ lead over the Pirates to 10 points with 90 seconds to spare.

After boasting a defense which ranked inside the Top 20 the last three seasons, the Gamecocks’ defense currently ranks…123rd in the nation (per CFBStats.com). Granted, Kenny Hill and Texas A&’s 51-point barrage in Week 1 has much to do with their poor statistical DNA (those stats run our engine). The Aggies racked up 511 total yards, while the Pirates posted 453.

On top of that, coach Spurrier’s offense hasn’t provided much support for the defense. Thompson is completing less than 60 percent of his passes with only five touchdowns. The two-headed running back tandem of Mike Davis and Brandon Wilds only has two scores and is averaging less than five yards per carry. On the bright side, Davis posted 149 rushing yards with 49 receiving against the Bulldogs last year.

The Georgia Bulldogs took Week 2 off after blasting Clemson the opening weekend. In that contest, Todd Gurley erupted for 198 rushing yards on only 15 carries with three touchdowns.

A South Carolina win will come down to whether or not their defense can stop Gurley. If they can, it’ll then be a matter of whether or not Thompson and company can generate enough offense because the effort in the first two weeks isn’t going to cut it against UGA. The Bulldogs last won at SC back in 2008.

We simulated the Bulldogs and Gamecocks 101 times and the computers like Georgia 56.9 percent of the time by an average score of 24.7-23.0.

College Football Week 3 Predictions
Matchup Win % Avg. Score  
Arkansas State Red Wolves 21.8 20.2 Boxscore
Miami (FL) Hurricanes 78.2 29.1  
Georgia Southern Eagles 23.3 18.6 Boxscore
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 76.7 28.1  
Kansas Jayhawks 27.7 19.4 Boxscore
Duke Blue Devils 72.3 27.8  
East Carolina Pirates 35.6 18.0 Boxscore
Virginia Tech Hokies 64.4 23.1  
USC Trojans 66.3 27.2 Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles 33.7 18.8  
Louisville Cardinals 76.7 22.8 Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers 23.3 14.6  
Kent State Golden Flashes 20.8 18.3 Boxscore
Ohio State Buckeyes 79.2 26.8  
Miami (OH) RedHawks 19.8 13.1 Boxscore
Michigan Wolverines 80.2 27.3  
Iowa State Cyclones 31.2 17.7 Boxscore
Iowa Hawkeyes 68.8 23.6  
West Virginia Mountaineers 55.0 21.9 Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins 45.0 21.4  
Penn State Nittany Lions 57.4 23.8 Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights 42.6 19.8  
Indiana State Sycamores 5.0 9.1 Boxscore
Ball State Cardinals 95.0 46.6  
Syracuse Orange 50.5 23.1 Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas 49.5 20.4  
Indiana Hoosiers 52.5 27.8 Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons 47.5 26.4  
Baylor Bears 86.1 32.5 Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls 13.9 18.2  
Portland State Vikings 5.0 7.4 Boxscore
Washington State Cougars 95.0 44.2  
Army Black Knights 10.9 17.3 Boxscore
Stanford Cardinal 89.1 31.0  
Wyoming Cowboys 19.3 21.0 Boxscore
Oregon Ducks 80.7 33.2  
Nevada Wolf Pack 35.6 24.8 Boxscore
Arizona Wildcats 64.4 28.3  
Illinois Fighting Illini 37.6 21.8 Boxscore
Washington Huskies 62.4 25.1  
Arizona State Sun Devils 80.2 29.5 Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes 19.8 18.8  
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 10.9 14.6 Boxscore
Alabama Crimson Tide 89.1 32.2  
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 16.8 17.3 Boxscore
LSU Tigers 83.2 28.6  
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns 20.3 18.7 Boxscore
Ole Miss Rebels 79.7 29.7  
Rice Owls 23.8 20.6 Boxscore
Texas A&M Aggies 76.2 30.3  
Kentucky Wildcats 29.2 15.3 Boxscore
Florida Gators 70.8 24.1  
Massachusetts Minutemen 29.7 14.4 Boxscore
Vanderbilt Commodores 70.3 21.4  
UCF Knights 48.0 23.3 Boxscore
Missouri Tigers 52.0 24.4  
Georgia Bulldogs 56.9 24.7 Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks 43.1 23.0  
Purdue Boilermakers 10.9 16.5 Boxscore
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 89.1 32.6  
Houston Cougars 39.6 18.4 Boxscore
BYU Cougars 60.4 24.0  
UTSA Roadrunners 29.2 22.1 Boxscore
Oklahoma State Cowboys 70.8 28.4  
Arkansas Razorbacks 32.7 21.9 Boxscore
Texas Tech Red Raiders 67.3 27.1  
Minnesota Golden Gophers 33.7 18.6 Boxscore
TCU Horned Frogs 66.3 22.7  
Tennessee Volunteers 34.7 20.0 Boxscore
Oklahoma Sooners 65.3 25.2  
UCLA Bruins 64.4 26.7 Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns 35.6 20.2  
Alabama A&M Bulldogs 5.0 7.6 Boxscore
UAB Blazers 95.0 43.4  
Ohio Bobcats 34.7 23.5 Boxscore
Marshall Thundering Herd 65.3 29.6  
Eastern Michigan Eagles 45.5 25.1 Boxscore
Old Dominion Monarchs 54.5 26.5  
New Mexico State Aggies 46.5 25.0 Boxscore
UTEP Miners 53.5 27.1  
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 49.0 23.0 Boxscore
North Texas Mean Green 51.0 22.7  
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 54.5 27.7 Boxscore
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 45.5 25.0  
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 66.3 23.7 Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls 33.7 19.9  
Pittsburgh Panthers 95.0 30.9 Boxscore
@ FIU Golden Panthers 5.0 12.9  
UNI Panthers 5.0 8.5 Boxscore
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 95.0 40.1  
UC Davis Aggies 5.0 8.2 Boxscore
Colorado State Rams 95.0 44.0  
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 38.1 17.9 Boxscore
Utah State Aggies 61.9 21.1  
Northern Illinois Huskies 64.4 28.1 Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels 35.6 23.0  
Nebraska Cornhuskers 76.2 30.2 Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs 23.8 19.2  
Abilene Christian Wildcats 5.0 7.4 Boxscore
Troy Trojans 95.0 43.1  
Western Michigan Broncos 49.5 24.7 Boxscore
Idaho Vandals 50.5 24.1  
Air Force Falcons 64.4 27.8 Boxscore
@ Georgia State Panthers 35.6 22.6  
Mississippi State Bulldogs 65.3 25.0 Boxscore
@ South Alabama Jaguars 34.7 19.1  
Navy Midshipmen 68.3 28.2 Boxscore
@ Texas State Bobcats 31.7 21.7  
Southeastern Louisiana Lions 5.0 8.8 Boxscore
Tulane Green Wave 95.0 39.9  
Toledo Rockets 38.6 23.2 Boxscore
Cincinnati Bearcats 61.4 28.2  
North Carolina State Wolfpack 54.5 23.4 Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls 45.5 23.1  
Boise State Broncos 73.3 30.0 Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies 26.7 22.7  

For additional statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.