Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com’s NCAA college football simulation engine provides game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team’s chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams.
The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team’s roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team’s game simulation for that week.
Game of the Week: Georgia at South Carolina
What a soft Week 3 college football schedule we have ahead of us. It’s so depressing, fans should cue up the Debbie Downer YouTube clip and womp-wahhh! Our game of the week – Georgia at South Carolina – is the only matchup that features two teams ranked inside the Top 25.
We’ll begin with the Gamecocks and the team’s sluggish start to their 2014 campaign.
On top of former South Carolina defensive stud Jadeveon Clowney tearing his meniscus in his NFL debut, the top pick’s alma mater was *this* close to starting the season 0-2. The pass-heavy East Carolina Pirates only trailed by four at the half and closed within seven points early in the fourth quarter before SC quarterback Dylan Thompson engineered an 18-play, 86-yard, 10-plus-minute drive that led to a field goal and pushed the Gamecocks’ lead over the Pirates to 10 points with 90 seconds to spare.
After boasting a defense which ranked inside the Top 20 the last three seasons, the Gamecocks’ defense currently ranks…123rd in the nation (per CFBStats.com). Granted, Kenny Hill and Texas A&’s 51-point barrage in Week 1 has much to do with their poor statistical DNA (those stats run our engine). The Aggies racked up 511 total yards, while the Pirates posted 453.
On top of that, coach Spurrier’s offense hasn’t provided much support for the defense. Thompson is completing less than 60 percent of his passes with only five touchdowns. The two-headed running back tandem of Mike Davis and Brandon Wilds only has two scores and is averaging less than five yards per carry. On the bright side, Davis posted 149 rushing yards with 49 receiving against the Bulldogs last year.
The Georgia Bulldogs took Week 2 off after blasting Clemson the opening weekend. In that contest, Todd Gurley erupted for 198 rushing yards on only 15 carries with three touchdowns.
A South Carolina win will come down to whether or not their defense can stop Gurley. If they can, it’ll then be a matter of whether or not Thompson and company can generate enough offense because the effort in the first two weeks isn’t going to cut it against UGA. The Bulldogs last won at SC back in 2008.
We simulated the Bulldogs and Gamecocks 101 times and the computers like Georgia 56.9 percent of the time by an average score of 24.7-23.0.