The biggest betting favorite and underdog at UFC Fight Night Vegas

UFC bantamweight Aljamain Sterling said recently that he believes that the UFC wants him to "take out" opponent Bryan Caraway at UFC Fight Night, and if you believe the oddsmakers, he has a pretty good chance of doing so.

Sterling enters Saturday’s fight as the biggest favorite on the card as he looks to continue his 12-fight win streak. Sportsbook.ag and BetNow have Sterling at -400, while Bovada has the undefeated 26-year-old at -450. Simply, a bettor would have to pony up at least $400 to take home $100 with a Sterling win.

His opponent, Caraway, ranked eighth in the bantamweight division, is listed at +300 and +325 on those same books, making him the biggest underdog and by far the biggest ranked underdog on the card. And statistically, the numbers explain a bit of why Sterling is so heavily favored.

Sterling vs. Caraway

Aljamain Sterling Significant Strikes Bryan Caraway
3.24 Landed Strikes Per Minute 2.79
53.97% Accuracy 33.8%
.99 Absorbed per minute 3.21
69.7% Defense 57.69%
  Grappling  
3.58 Takedown Average 2.79
46.1% Takedown Accuracy 33.3%
42.8% Takedowns Defended 81.4%
1.49 Submission Average .98

According to the books, UFC newcomer Jordan Rinaldi (+250), who accepted his fight against Abel Trujillo (-325) on 10 days’ notice has a better chance of walking away with a win.

Other than that, oddsmakers are predicting very close bouts for the rest of the card, which bodes well for fight fans.

Sara McMann (-160) is slightly favored over Jessica Eye (-130), which makes sense considering their placement at fifth and sixth, respectively, in the UFC rankings. Same goes for welterweights Jorge Masvidal (+130) and Lorenz Larkin (-150), whose stats for significant strikes are virtually identical.

Significant Strikes

Jorge Masvidal   Lorenz Larkin
3.91 Landed Per Minute 3.48
46.8% Accuracy 46.2%
2.85 Absorbed Per Minute 2.71
69.9% Defense 63.8%

The co-main event sees former bantamweight champion Renan Barao (-200) as a favorite in his featherweight debut over the always tough Jeremy Stephens (+160). Meanwhile, in the main event, Thomas Almeida (-160) is likely to take home the win, but oddsmakers wouldn’t be surprised if unranked bantamweight Cody Garbrandt (+140) took care of business.

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt goes down this Sunday, May 29, from Las Vegas, and you can catch all the action on FS1.