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Freddie Freeman's continual rise on MLB's competitive fringe
Freddie Freeman did it again at Minute Maid Park.
The swing looked casual, a compact and nonchalant movement resembling a tennis backhand to the opposite field. Young Astros starter Joe Musgrove did not make his crucial mistake in the location of his sweeping curveball — a pitch breaking just enough to catch the outside part of the plate — so much as he did by even throwing a pitch his foil was clearly sitting on anywhere near the zone. The ball left Freeman’s bat at 101 miles per hour and kept carrying. Houston center fielder Jake Marisnick eventually nabbed the ball after it ricocheted well above the yellow home-run marker on the ballpark’s imposing left-field fence.
The home run, Freeman’s 12th of the young season, followed an all-too-familiar script. It was a solo shot — his 9th of the year and 29th over the past two seasons. With Atlanta’s 1-2 hitters reaching base just once on Wednesday afternoon, 63 percent of the two-time All-Star’s long balls have come without runners on base since the start of the 2016 season — a statistical snapshot of Atlanta’s ongoing search for consistent productivity ahead of one of baseball’s ascendent talents. He's on pace to break the MLB record for solo homers in a season. He's entered the box with runners in scoring position just 21 times in 2017.
And in the spirit of trends, though Freeman’s shot tied the game, the Braves lost again. That makes 208 losses in the franchise’s past 354 games, the second-worst mark in the majors. Individual greatness has a habit of getting lost in division cellars.
Freddie Freeman is putting up superstar numbers in the Bermuda Triangle.
“Wish it was like an easy fix. Wish there was something you could do, say, whatever to make it not be like that,” Snitker said of Freeman’s production sans top-of-the-lineup help. “It’s just the way it happens sometimes. But he’s been phenomenal all year.”
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Since Atlanta’s last division title in 2013, only 11 position players have accounted for more wins above replacement than Freeman. That list includes four MVP winners (Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson, Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant) along with your typical top-of-the-line talent like Manny Machado, Jose Altuve and Adrian Beltre. Of that group, only Paul Goldschmidt, the foundation of an Arizona Diamondbacks organization beset by major injuries and poor front-office decisions over the past three years, did not play in a single postseason game. Freeman can empathize.
This specific brand of Groundhog’s Day presents an interesting dynamic for a franchise in the middle of a major overhaul: Freeman’s sudden rise coincides with the worst major-league product the Braves have run out for consecutive seasons since John Schuerholz arrived from Kansas City. On one hand, the Braves’ previous front-office regime cast the correct lot in locking up the sweet-swinging lefty through 2021, securing a cornerstone for John Hart and John Coppolella to build around; on the other, arguably the best hitter in baseball at the moment is spending his prime waiting for the cavalry to arrive.
There is a Romantic quality to watching standout position players perform on struggling rosters, moments of awe delivered on demand irrespective of team results. Freeman is not the first, nor will he be the last. Pitchers have likewise traversed this path of misfortune — Chris Sale, the late Jose Fernandez and this group’s present-day patron saint, Felix Hernandez — but there’s something particularly immutable about trotting out MVP production on a daily basis for 60-something-win teams. The process can take its toll, however.
"We've got to start winning,” Freeman said after the Braves were swept by the Cardinals this past weekend. “We've dug ourselves in a hole, really. You can't keep taking a positive from every game and expect to come out here tomorrow or the next day and say we'll get them next time. We've got to start doing it.
"Obviously, frustration has set in a little bit."
Last season, Freddie Freeman hit .302/.400/.569 with a career-high 34 home runs and 6.1 WAR for a 68-win ballclub. He was a second-half force, one that never collided with the proverbial immovable object. The team finished strong, but the overall damage was done. Here’s the list of 6-WAR position players on teams that finished at least 25 games below .500 over the past 20 years:
| Team | Player | fWAR | Team Record |
| 2016 Braves | Freddie Freeman | 6.1 | 68-93 |
| 2015 Reds | Joey Votto | 7.5 | 64-98 |
| 2009 Nationals | Ryan Zimmermann | 6.6 | 59-103 |
| 2008 Orioles | Nick Markakis | 6.0 | 68-93 |
| 2004 Mariners | Ichiro Suzuki | 7.1 | 63-99 |
| 2004 Rockies | Todd Helton | 7.0 | 68-94 |
| 2000 Phillies | Bobby Abreu | 6.9 | 65-97 |
| 2000 Expos | Vladimir Guerrero | 6.2 | 67-95 |
| 1998 Expos | Vladimir Guerrero | 6.7 | 65-97 |
| 1997 Twins | Chuck Knoblauch | 6.2 | 68-94 |
Ten instances in two decades.
Freeman and, yes, the Braves are both at least flirting with those markers again in 2017. The 27-year-old, traditionally a fast finisher, slingshotted out of the gate with better numbers in every major statistical category than he posted a season ago when he finished fifth in the National League MVP voting. His pace is absurd. Teammates and opponents discuss his antics in "What else can you say at this point..." soundbites. National League pitching may need sparkling pajama-type assistance to prevent him from eclipsing his best season to date.
His team, of course, finds itself on the opposite end of the spectrum.
After spending $32 million and a few mid-tier prospects to mend a problematic 2016 rotation, the franchise is still waiting on positive results from Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey and Jaime Garcia. (The old adage stating that bad one-year deals do not exist still rings true from a long-term perspective, but no organization aims to spend a quarter of its yearly payroll and not recoup comparable on-field production and/or trade value.) Meanwhile, No. 1 starter Julio Teheran has looked lost at SunTrust Park. Atlanta's offense is hitting at its best rate since its roster teardown, but timely hits have been few and far between as the team looks up at four rivals in the NL East standings.
It is early. There remains ample time to right the ship. Baseball's No. 1 farm system did not dry up, Dansby Swanson's BABIP misfortunes will (likely) normalize, the bullpen's peripherals suggest better future run prevention and — aging or not — this is still a starting rotation that combined for 9.5 wins above replacement one year ago, which would have ranked 12th among active rosters. All is not lost in this particular Bermuda Triangle.
Then there's that No. 3 hitter and two questions: How long can he sustain this MVP-esque pace, and how long will his ascent take place outside of baseball's competitive landscape?
