Fantasy Fox: Mock-draft simulation when holding No. 12 slot
JUL 30, 2014 1:24a ET
Here's a dry run of draft expectations when holding the No. 12 slot in 12-team leagues (standard scoring). As our guide, we'll specifically work off an ESPN mock draft from July 25 (16 rounds).
Every mock draft represents an opportunity for experimentation. This one involves waiting until Round 7 -- at the very least -- before landing a top-shelf quarterback.
For what it's worth, the first 11 picks were: Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Calvin Johnson, Eddie Lacy, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Martin, Peyton Manning and Zac Stacy.
Round 1, Pick 12 overall: Motive -- Best overall player
1st option: WR Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
2nd option: WR A.J. Green, Bengals
3rd option: RB Le'Veon Bell, Steelers
BREAKDOWN: The wonderfully consistent Thomas has notched at least 92 catches, 141 targets, 1,430 yards and double-digit touchdowns over the last two seasons, cementing his WR ranking behind Calvin Johnson.
It also helps that Thomas (11 double-digit target outings last year, including the playoffs) scored a touchdown in each of his last five games (postseason included).
Which brings us to this: The 11 and 12 draft slots are the ideal windows to splurge for Thomas AND A.J. Green with the first two picks -- assuming you've the mock-drafting legwork.
For executing this bold move ratchets up the pressure on two fronts:
1) Finding four quality tailbacks from Rounds 3-9; and if this isn't accomplished, you won't have the luxury of handcuffing your RB5 to the RB1.
2) Your initial battle plan of taking a quarterback and then a tight end or top-ranked defense in the first 10 rounds has likely gone kaput ... since every important "tweener" decision should be a tailback leap of faith.
Round 2, Pick 13 overall: Motive -- Best overall player
1st option: RB Le'Veon Bell, Steelers
2nd option: WR A.J. Green, Bengals
3rd option: QB Drew Brees, Saints
BREAKDOWN: At this point in the preseason, Bell is the one tailback I'd prefer over the WR-WR super-tandem of Thomas and Green.
Of his 13 games last year, Bell racked up 88 total yards and/or one TD 11 times, while averaging a reasonable 22.2 touches per outing. For good measure, Bell (45 catches for 408 yards) was one of only 15 backs to collect 65 or more targets for the year.
Round 3, Pick 36 overall: Motive -- Best tailback or receiver
1st option: RB C.J. Spiller, Bills
2nd option: WR Randall Cobb, Packers
3rd option: WR Wes Welker, Broncos
BREAKDOWN: Spiller, who has averaged 1,410 total yards over the last two seasons, only averaged 243 touches during that span; and heading into his fifth NFL season, this is the year Spiller hits that elite-level threshold of 275 touches.
On the flip side, it's hard to nail down a concrete Average Draft Position (ADP) figure for Spiller at this time. Some prominent Web sites have pegged C.J. as a top-five tailback for 2014, while others have him as barely a top-60 overall pick for the August drafts.
Round 4, Pick 37 overall: Motive -- Best tailback or receiver
1st option: RB Rashad Jennings, Giants
2nd option: WR Keenan Allen, Chargers
3rd option: WR Andre Johnson, Texans
BREAKDOWN: Of his seven games of 15 or more touches last year (with the Raiders), Jennings rolled for either 100 total yards and/or one TD seven times. And yet, he could easily be had midway through Round 4.
During the spring, I had Jennings (1,025 total yards, six TDs) ranked as the No. 20 tailback ... but he has the potential to leap another 3-4 slots by mid-August. After all, the new Giants rusher averaged 112 total yards and one TD against the Cowboys, Redskins and Eagles last year.
Round 5, Pick 60 overall: Motive -- Best overall player, too early for a QB
1st option: WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Vikings
2nd option: RB Joique Bell, Lions
3rd option: WR Michael Crabtree, 49ers
BREAKDOWN: Patterson's reasonably high selection comes on the presumption of double-digit touchdowns in Year 2, through a combination of receiving, rushing and kick-returning scores.
As a rookie, Patterson (45 catches, 469 yards, four TDs) rolled for nine TDs ... without really possessing a full grasp of the Vikings offense.
Here's another reason for our optimism: They don't put nobodies in NFL.com "Fantasy Football" advertisements!
Round 6, Pick 61 overall: Motive -- Best overall player
1st option: RB Stevan Ridley, Patriots
2nd option: RB Joique Bell, Lions
3rd option: RB Bishop Sankey, Titans
BREAKDOWN: Ridley (19 total TDs over the last two seasons) tallied all seven of his 2013 scores from Weeks 6-11.
That's great fantasy production for a back who may have finally seen the light on the importance of ball preservation.
BREAKDOWN: Wright (94 catches, 1,079 yards, two TDs) shall be an easy Round 5 pick for PPR leagues.
On the flip side, Wright (93 targets in his final 10 outings) still must sing for his proverbial supper in standard-scoring leagues.
Round 8, Pick 85 overall: Motive -- Best quarterback or tailback
1st option: QB Tom Brady, Patriots
2nd option: RB Knowshon Moreno, Dolphins
3rd option: RB Toby Gerhart, Jaguars
BREAKDOWN: The last time Brady could be had in Round 8, free and clear?
Try the 2007 preseason, when the Patriots QB was coming off a good, but hardly elite-level '06 campaign of 3,529 yards passing and 24 touchdowns.
In '07, Brady (with the help of WR Randy Moss) would pass for 4,806 yards and 50 TDs -- an NFL record at the time.
One more thing: Of tight end Rob Gronkowski's last 20 complete games -- including the playoffs, but excluding the Browns tilt from December (left early with season-ending knee injury) -- the modern-day Brady boasts per-outing averages of 295.8 yards passing.
And during that span, Brady has a scintillating 42/11 TD-INT ratio.
BREAKDOWN: Don't fall asleep on Bowe's rock-solid production at the end of last year:
From Week 9 to the wild-card round, the Chiefs wideout tallied four games of double-digit targets and four touchdowns -- including an eight-catch, 150-yard, one-TD demolition of the Colts during the playoffs.
BREAKDOWN: Citing standard-scoring leagues, the Chiefs defense racked up double-digit points eight times last year. By contrast, the Rams -- the No. 2-ranked fantasy defense in most leagues -- only accomplished that feat four times.
Two more reasons to go bold here: Kansas City was a top-7 unit in sacks ... and a group that notched seven defensive TDs last season.
BREAKDOWN: We'll roll out the RB "handcuff" rankings sometime in the very-near future, and I fully expect Blount to be sitting near the top.
For a four-week period last season (Weeks 16/17, first two playoff rounds), Blount was THE BEST back in football, bar none, incredibly amassing 331 rushing yards and eight TDs over a three-game span.
Round 13, Pick 156 overall: Motive -- Best backup QB
1st option: QB Joe Flacco, Ravens
2nd option: QB Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins
3rd option: QB Josh McCown, Buccaneers
BREAKDOWN: Flacco is currently my 16th-ranked fantasy QB, so there's strong value here in Round 13.
As a bonus, Flacco (3,912 yards passing, 20 total TDs last year) has an attractive home date against the Titans in Week 10 -- when Brady and the Patriots are on a bye.
Jay Clemons, the 2008 Fantasy Football Writer of theYear (Fantasy Sports Writers Association), can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.