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What does the USWNT's path to Olympic gold look like?
The stage is set and the U.S. women’s national team has three games to go in order to win a gold medal. As we enter the knockout rounds, there are no real surprises in who made it out of the group stage, but there are some weak teams that the USWNT would much rather face and offer better paths to the gold medal.
Here is where things stand going into the quarterfinals on Friday:
The Americans topped Group G in spite of a stunning draw against Colombia on Tuesday, and that was important to ensure they will face Sweden, a team that has been struggling, instead of Canada, the only team to have won every game of the group stage. Sweden just haven't been very good in this tournament -- they barely beat South Africa, 1-0, settled for a scoreless draw against China and got a severe 5-1 whooping from Brazil.
There is, of course, the intrigue of Pia Sundhage facing her former team -- Sundhage led the USWNT to the gold medal in 2012 before leaving to coach the Swedish team. But when the U.S. faced Sweden in the group stage of the World Cup last summer, it was a grueling 0-0 draw, where the USA played perhaps their worst game of the tournament. Sundhage’s team will hope for a repeat of that to stand any chance of improving their own Olympics performance.
The Americans are stuck with a limited set of options if they make it through to the semifinals and, all things considered, they lucked out and got what looks like the easier side of the bracket on paper. That’s not to say that Brazil and Australia won’t pose difficult challenges, but neither side has been very consistent and there is reason to believe the U.S. can handle either.
In Brazil, the U.S. would face the host nation with huge fan support at stadiums throughout the tournament. Marta, as usual, has been a delight to watch (making Neymar’s struggles for the men all the more glaring), but Brazil hasn’t had the toughest group and they surprisingly settled for a scoreless draw against a far inferior South Africa side. Australia is a team stacked with talent, but they’ve looked like a different team from game-to-game, getting shut out 0-2 against Canada, but then drawing 2-2 to the No. 2 team in the world, Germany.
USA preferred opponent, semifinals: Australia. The Brazilians would offer an exciting match-up, but the U.S. has never lost to Australia in 27 match-ups and usually looks comfortable against them, which is not the case with Brazil.
The gold medal match is where there are a lot of possibilities. The U.S. could be facing Canada, France, China or Germany if they get there. And all things considered, Canada may surprisingly be the team to avoid. Coach John Herdman has been tactically smart with his Canadians and made risky moves that paid off, like benching Christine Sinclair and rising star Janine Beckie against superpower Germany, letting Melissa Tancredi instead lead the Canadians to a stunning victory.
The prospect of an Olympic rematch between the USA and Canada would have fans on both sides of the border salivating. The U.S. infamously equalized against Canada three separate times in the 2012 semifinal with a little help from some interesting officiating, and Sinclair was later suspended for accusing the referee of giving the game to the Americans. Canada outplayed the U.S. that day and still lost, so they will be eager for a second shot.
Germany and France, the No. 2 and No. 3-ranked teams in the world aren’t great potential opponents in a gold medal match either. Though the Americans beat France in the group stage, they did so only barely thanks to some spectacular saves from Solo. Germany is a similarly tough team that can shut down the midfield and pummel the American defense.
USA preferred opponent, finals: China. It’s difficult to see how China gets past Germany and lands in the final. The Chinese haven’t had a good group run, their only win coming against an under-powered South Africa side. But they are very good at bunkering and trying to make something happen on the counter, so if they can stay disciplined, there’s always a chance. The Americans know how to deal with bunker teams because most teams tend bunker against the U.S., and the U.S. record against China is a pretty good one.
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