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The Toronto Maple Leafs, an extremely young team, have nothing to fear from the NHL Expansion Draft. Whether they go with the 8 skater strategy or seven forwards, they should be fine.
NHL Expansion Draft
Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) celebrates his third period goal with left wing James van Riemsdyk (25). Both are safe from the NHL Expansion Draft. (Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports)
Toronto's one of the teams least affected by the NHL Expansion Draft.
Whether it's through the 8 skater strategy and four defensemen, or seven forwards, the Leafs should be fine.
I say should, because if the Leafs stray from a logical protection system, who knows.
Maybe the Vegas Golden Knights luck their way into Connor Brown.
But then again, that should not happen.
The Leafs are likely to be smart in the NHL Expansion Draft, and will certainly protect those who need to be protected.
Which is not a lot of players. Again, the Leafs are a young team with lots of exempt players. That's a great thing right about now.
NHL Expansion Draft
Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) shoots the puck in overtime against the Washington Capitals in game six (Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports)
T is for Truculence
Applicable Toronto forwards: Joffrey Lupul, Nazem Kadri, James Van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov, Matt Martin, Eric Fehr, Kerby Rychel, Ben Smith, Josh Leivo, Seth Griffith, Brendan Leipsic, Connor Brown.
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Guaranteed: James Van Riemsdyk, Nazem Kadri, Tyler Bozak, Connor Brown
Van Riemsdyk 16-17 stats: 62 points, 29 goals, 5 game-winning goals, 52.3 Corsi %, 57.1% offensive zone starts (ozs), 3 playoff points.
Van Riemsdyk had more takeaways than giveaways.
Despite all the trade talk, Van Riemsdyk should continue to play a mentor role on this Toronto team.
And he's still on a fairly fair 4.25 million until next year. That's not a ton of money, nor is it undeserved.
Van Riemsdyk could very likely be re-signed as well.
Kadri stats: 61 P, 31 G, 6 GWG, 51.5 CF%, 62.6 defensive zs%, 2 playoff points.
Kadri was oft-discussed as a Selke candidate throughout the year. Much of that, as can be assumed, is because of the combination of his ridiculous amount of defensive zone starts and his Corsi.
But some of it is also the minutes he was playing against top competition and how he found a way to beat them. Kadri is invaluable as a center now to the Toronto Maple Leafs.
And again, it's not a bad contract that Kadri is on: 4.5 million until 2022.
Bozak stats: 55 P, 18 G, 1 GWG, 51.7 CF%, 52.5 offensive zs%, 4 playoff points.
Tyler Bozak won most of his faceoffs, at a rate of 56.7% (52.8 in the playoffs) and that's something all teams need. Bozak was also utilized on the power play.
He is older than most of the players on this list, by a pretty wide margin. But Bozak is also up there in terms of experience, and as the Maple Leafs get younger, they'll need their vets.
Plus, his next contract will likely be cheaper.
Brown stats: 36 P, 20 G, 4 GWG, 50 CF%, 51.8 off zs%, 1 playoff point
Brown is very young. He's a restricted free agent at 23, but his will be an affordable extension. Brown is part of the Maple Leaf's youth movement. He's needed as such.
In the playoffs, Brown saw a minutes increase to 18 minutes a night and didn't give up the puck.
7-3-Likely: Leo Komarov
Komarov stats: 32 P, 14 G, 1 GWG, 48.9 CF%, 63.6 def zs%, 1 playoff point
Komarov is aging. He didn't put up that many points, and he's a defensive guy. With the surge in play by Zach Hyman, Komarov has become somewhat expendable.
Which is why, if the Maple Leafs go with the 4-4, Komarov isn't safe from the NHL Expansion Draft.
But if it's the ol' 7-3-1, Komarov's 14 points and defensive abilities look pretty good.
Maybe: Josh Leivo, Seth Griffith
Leivo stats: 10 P, 2 G, 0 GWG, 55.3 CF%, 53.9 def zs%, no playoffs
Leivo did all that in just 13 games last year. He should definitely see more time next year, especially if Vegas takes Komarov.
Leivo also put up 11 takeaways.
But when a guy who played 13 games is one of your protection slots in the NHL Expansion Draft, maybe you should consider doing the 4-4.
Seth Griffith was traded last year and still only played 24 games. The Leafs really have to go with the 4-4.
2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs
Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly (44) skates with the puck against the Washington Capitals (Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)
ML is for Merry Locusts
Applicable Maple Leafs defensemen: Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner, Alexey Marchenko, Martin Marincin, Connor Carrick.
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Guaranteed: Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner
Rielly stats: 27 points, 6 goals, 22 average time on ice, 120 blocks, 50.4 Corsi for%, 53.4 defensive zone starts%.
Rielly has morphed himself into a number one defenseman for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
While he may be better as a top-2 defenseman, Rielly is incredibly important going forward.
Rielly is also just 23 and making 5 million until 2022.
The Leafs get a great defenseman on a great contract under team control for a while. Perfect situation.
Gardiner stats: 43 P, 9 G, 21:30 ATOI, 83 BLK, 52.6 CF%, 54.5 off zs%
Ready for something crazy: in the playoffs, Jake Gardiner's ATOI jumped to 28 minutes. Yeah, there's a reason the Maple Leafs are involved in every trade rumor involving defensemen.
Even still, Gardiner is a terrific top-4 defenseman for the Maple Leafs. One who's just 26 and under contract until 2019. Again, he's one who could sign a deal similar to the one he has now.
Gardiner is the more offensive defenseman in the Rielly/Gardiner pairing. That's seen by his being put on the power play.
Most Probably: Connor Carrick, Martin Marincin
Carrick stats: 8 P, 2 G, 16:20 ATOI, 79 BLK, 53.5 CFF%, 58.5 off zs%
Connor Carrick's stat line reads like a defensive defenseman until those last two. He had nearly as many blocks as Gardiner in a lot fewer games in a lot fewer minutes.
Carrick probably should elevate those points, but it was his first full season. Carrick's still a young defenseman with a lot of potential. A bottom pairing of Carrick and Marincin could be a lot worse.
Marincin stats: 7 P, 1 G, 18:03 ATOI, 27 BLK, 51 CF%, 54.7 def zs%
Marincin achieved those stats in just 25 games, then played in the playoffs with the Maple Leafs. And that's why he's likely to be protected in the NHL Expansion Draft over Komarov.
That and Marincin is on a 1 million dollar contract with the Maple Leafs and will be a restricted free agent next year.
He's the defensive defenseman to Carrick's offensive, and with 16:53 ATOI, has the potential to be a prominent defensive defenseman for the Leafs for years to come.
NHL Expansion Draft
Toronto Maple Leafs goaltender Frederik Andersen (31) makes a glove save during the warm up prior to game four of the first round of the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Washington Capitals at Air Canada Centre. (John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports)
FA is for Flaky Aerosmiths
Applicable Maple Leaf goaltenders: Frederik Andersen, Garret Sparks, Antoine Bibeau.
Guaranteed: Frederik Andersen
Andersen stats: 66 starts, .918 SV%, 2.67 GAA, 4 shutouts, .576 Quality Start rate, .915 playoff SV%, 2.68 playoff GAA.
Andersen had a rough start to his starting career, but he's a 27-year-old goaltender. He still has the ability to improve, and his numbers still resembled his great career in Anaheim.
Again, you don't expose your starting goaltender to the NHL Expansion Draft. Especially when he has a good contract (5 million) until 2021.
Born Yesterday
Exempt List: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Frederik Gauthier, Kasperi Kapanen, Nikita Soshnikov, Zach Hyman, Nikita Zaitsev.
nhl expansion draft
Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Martin Marincin (52) shoots the puck against the Washington Capitals. Marincin could be selected in NHL Expansion Draft (Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)
Vegas takes one of Carrick/Komarov. It depends on which strategy the Leafs use.
If they use the 7-3-1, Vegas needs good young goaltenders. While Carrick remains (relatively) unproven, they would be willing to take a chance on him not given a lot of other options.
Komarov remains able to put up points and would make a good penalty kill partner for Marcus Kruger. The Golden Knights may not be good at a lot of things, but the penalty kill will be fantastic.
