National Football League

Why Colin Kaepernick Might Actually Return to the 49ers in 2017

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 1:35 p.m. ET

Fansided, Peter Panacy/FanSided via Niner Noise

All signs point to embattled quarterback Colin Kaepernick being anywhere but with the San Francisco 49ers in 2017. But what are the chances he’s back this upcoming season?

First, let me preface all this by saying the San Francisco 49ers need to move on from Colin Kaepernick. As a long-term fixture under center, Kap isn’t going to be the option.

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The Niners have been there, tried that.

But let’s play the devil’s advocate here and look at why Kaepernick might actually be back with San Francisco in 2017. Yes, there’s a real possibility this happens. And it makes sense.

First, we know two important factors — Kaepernick is under contract through 2017, and he also has an opt-out clause that would essentially make him a free agent this offseason. If he stays, the Niners would owe him at least $14.5 million in base salary.

He certainly knows he won’t command anything close to that on the open market.

More on that in a second, but let’s consider whether or not San Francisco would even want him back. If released this offseason, the Niners would save $16.9 million in savings, according to Over the Cap.

While cap space isn’t going to be an issue for the 49ers, having that kind of money to rebuild a talent-needy franchise would certainly go a long way.

We also can’t avoid Kaepernick’s national anthem protest either. Yes, the 49ers handled it about as well as they possibly good, admirably in many cases. But it could very well be an action the next Niners head coach and/or general manager don’t particularly want to deal with.

Speculation on Colin Kaepernick Leaving

ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer might conjure up some laughs from 49ers fans, for sure. But he brought up a good point about Kap’s future with the franchise while speaking on KNBR 680 earlier this month.

Dilfer said:

There were some signs late. I’m not trying to put whipped cream on turd here, but it looked better towards the end of the year. But I don’t think it’s justification for [Kaepernick] to be the quarterback here next year. I totally agree with you (Bob Fitzgerald), that if you’re going to start over fresh, it has to be completely fresh. There can’t be any of the carryover that the fans and everybody suffered through the past few years.

It’s a good point. A fresh start has to be truly fresh.

If the decision entirely rested on Kaepernick and from a financial standpoint, the quarterback wouldn’t want to go anywhere. Why? Well, he’d be a hard sell to land a job with many an NFL team. At best, he’s a unique backup.

Nov 20, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) tries to hold off New England Patriots strong safety Patrick Chung (23) and defensive end Trey Flowers (98) before being sacked during the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

And backups don’t make $14.5 million.

Plus, his protests have certainly ruffled the feathers of many a NFL executive across the league. San Francisco, and most of California, tends to be more tolerable of such protests. The rest of the country? Perhaps not.

It’s Up to the 49ers New Regime

Keep in mind the clean-slate idea for a second.

With San Francisco on the hunt for a new head coach and GM, how removed from possibility is it for this next tandem to actually want Kaepernick on the 49ers roster in 2017?

It’s not entirely out of the question.

The free-agent market at quarterback is thin at best. And while there are some promising QBs in the upcoming NFL Draft — North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky or Clemson’s Deshaun Watson come to mind — are either of these guys bona fide first-round, franchise-changer signal-callers?