National Football League

Look Between the Lines: Handicapping the NFL's Week 6 slate

Published Oct. 9, 2014 12:00 p.m. ET

foxsports

James Hernandez has more than 15 years in the sports handicapping industry and will contribute weekly for FOXSports.com as our betting expert. Have comments or questions? Make sure to email him at jameshernandez1981@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter @jhern81.

During the NFL season, I will attempt to guide you to the winner's circle more often than not. I consider a combination of statistical trends, my own personal player ranking system, and meticulous attention to various wagering techniques that allow me to analyze and formulate a plan of attack.

Each week I will post my five favorite plays in order of preference, best on top and so on. All right, let's get into it:

Note: Over the last three weeks, the Look Between the Lines' picks are 12-3 against the spread.

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) over Houston Texans

Is anyone playing better football than the Indianapolis Colts? Since losing to Philly at home in Week 2, the Colts have won – and covered-- three straight with ease. Andrew Luck now boasts a 12-2 record within the AFC South and you have to go back to his rookie year to find the last time he suffered a loss within the division.

Indy's two division wins this year are by a combined 51 points (25.5 per game) and there is little reason to believe that the Texans and their 22nd ranked pass defense will provide much resistance for the No. 1 passing offense in the NFL. Luck has already thrown for 1,617 yards and 14 touchdowns while ranking seventh in completion percentage and passer rating. Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton both have more than 380 yards receiving on the season, making the Colts the only team in the league to feature two top-10 wideouts.

Do yourself a favor and get on this line as soon as possible. The Colts are likely to get the majority of the betting action and a half-point swing may be the difference between a win or a push.

Denver Broncos (-9) over New York Jets

It's generally a good rule of thumb to avoid laying more than a touchdown on the road in the NFL, however that rule has never seen a dumpster fire quite like the 2014 Jets.

Rex Ryan made it sound as if keeping Geno Smith under center was a no-brainer, but how can he expect him to manage his offense when he can't even manage to tell time?

Denver spent the offseason addressing the defensive side of the ball and the additions of Aqib Talib, DeMarcus Ware and T.J. Ward are paying immediate dividends for the fourth-ranked defense in the league. Peyton Manning was able to carve up a very talented Arizona secondary last week for 479 passing yards and 4 touchdowns and you can expect much of the same this week as Peyton will look to expose one of the weakest secondaries in the game.

Lay the points in the week's biggest mismatch as Denver cruises to a double-digit victory.

Cleveland Browns (-1.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers

The first rematch of the NFL season brings us back to the AFC North for Round 2 of this age-old rivalry. The Browns are leading the AFC with 143.3 rushing yards per game, which included gashing the Steelers for 191 yards on the ground in Week 1.

Although it may seem as if the Steelers have shored up their rush defense by holding their last three opponents to a combined 161 yards on 45 carries, it speaks more to their opponents' lack of a running game than to an improved run defense. The Jaguars, Panthers and Bucs all feature running games that rank in the bottom third of the league in yards and attempts per game.

Cleveland can easily be 4-0 or 0-4, but no one can debate the fact that the Browns have been in every game this year. The Browns' two wins are by a combined three points and their two losses are by a combined five points. Expect this dogfight to be no different as both teams play a physical brand of football that will come down the wire once again -- with the home team coming out with a hard-earned win.

New York Giants (+3) over Philadelphia Eagles

After losing their first two games of the year by a combined 32 points, the G-Men have come back to life faster than Michael Myers in a Halloween sequel. New York has decimated its last three opponents, winning by an average of 18 points per game and easily covering all three spreads.

Odell Beckham, Jr. made his NFL debut last week, and the 12th overall pick from this year's draft immediately made his presence felt by grabbing four balls for 44 yards, including the go-ahead 15-yard touchdown pass.

Tom Coughlin has once again gone from being on the hot seat to the most beloved coach in the Big Apple seemingly in a New York minute. Coughlin has posted a 15-9 record over his last 24 contests as a dog, including three straight covers at Lincoln Financial Field. Since Chip Kelly's arrival in Philly, the Eagles are only 4-7 against the spread as home favorites.

After three weeks of snatching victories from the jaws of defeat at home, the Eagles' late-game magic at the Linc will finally run out. Look for the Giants to escape Philly with a cover and maybe even an outright win in a key game for both teams' NFC East championship aspirations.

New England Patriots (-2.5) over Buffalo Bills

I think it's safe to say that the demise of the New England Patriots and more importantly, Tom Brady, has been greatly exaggerated. Brady and Belichick will look to continue their recent mastery of the Buffalo Bills as they travel to Orchard Park for a battle that will leave the winner with sole possession of the first place in the AFC East.

Although people will be quick to praise Brady for last week's win it was the Pats' smash-mouth running game of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen (203 rushing yards on 36 combined carries) that helped New England get off the mat and back into the winner's circle. Terry and Kim Pegula were unanimously approved as the new owners of the Bills on Wednesday, however with a career record of 22-2 vs. Buffalo -- including 8-1 in his last nine visits to Ralph Wilson Stadium -- many would argue that Tom Brady is the true owner of this franchise.

New England has won 25 of the last 27 meetings and The Golden Boy has tossed 54 touchdown passes in 24 career encounters with Buffalo, by far his most against any team. The Bills will also need to keep tabs on Rob Gronkowski, who has tallied nine touchdowns in just six career meetings. Feel confident laying the short chalk with the Pats this weekend as they continue to treat the Bills the same way the hammer treats the nail.