National Football League

Week 3 NFL games: 5 best bets

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

foxsports

Week 2 in the NFL gave us slightly more intrigue along with a couple upsets, giving bettors a better indicator of where to put their money.

And if you read last week’s inaugural installment of Best Bets and followed the advice of FiftyFourPercent.com, money is exactly what you made. The sports betting site went 3-2 in the inaugural installment, coming up just short on the Baltimore Ravens—who still won outright over the Cleveland Browns—and then whiffing on the underdog pick of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who subsequently got annihilated by the Arizona Cardinals.

On the docket this week features five inter-conference matchups, including two upsets: The Los Angeles Rams look to build off a quality (and unexpected) win at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks; The Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings look to both remain undefeated; the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts look to get their first win; while the Bucs, New York Jets, Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers look to prove they belong in playoff discussions later this season.

And just like before, I won’t be putting my money where my mouth is; instead, conveniently throwing in my two cents from out in the peanut gallery.

The odds are based on consensus Las Vegas opening lines. As always, practice safe gambling!

Dec 17, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Rams outside linebacker Mark Barron (26) pressures Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) during the second half at the Edward Jones Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5) vs. Los Angeles Rams

FiftyFourPercent:

The Buccaneers finally get to play their first home game, drawing the Rams, who not only have to travel cross-country but are in a huge letdown spot after upsetting the Seahawks this past Sunday in their new L.A. debut.

Tampa Bay has improved enough where it can be trusted to take full advantage of the situation. Don’t read too much into the Buccaneers getting buried at Arizona this past week. It was bad timing for the Bucs catching the Cardinals in a foul mood after they were upset on national TV at home by the Patriots in Week 1. Tampa Bay is much better than that. Jameis Winston is a franchise-caliber quarterback who has plenty of weapons even if Doug Martin is a no-go because of a hamstring injury. Charles Sims are one of the most capable backup running backs.

The Rams have managed to put up only nine points on the season with no touchdowns. We’re not sure what is worse for the franchise: Getting shut out by the 49ers, or employing Jeff Fisher. The game passed Fisher by years ago. It’s not a fluke either that the Rams have yet to cross the goal line. Their offensive line is well below average. There is no worse starting quarterback in the NFL than Case Keenum. Because of these factors, Todd Gurley is averaging just 72 total yards during his last nine games as defenses completely key on him since he’s the team’s only talented player on offense.

Glauser:

What do you do when you come off one of the most lopsided losses in recent franchise history? Extend the contract of your mediocre coach, of course! And how do you follow that up? By upsetting one of the top teams in the league, of course!

There has never been any rhyme or reason to Jeff Fisher’s 20-odd year career, other than his teams’ knack of playing up and down to the competition. And although I’m not completely sold on the Bucs yet, with Keenum looking dreadful and nothing but the Gurley Show to watch on offense, expect not only a Tampa Bay victory in a low-scoring affair but one that goes mainly unwatched between Florida and California.

Nov 15, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson (15) catches a touchdown pass during the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) vs. Baltimore Ravens

FiftyFourPercent:

John Harbaugh has established a winning tradition in Baltimore with six playoff berths in eight seasons, including a Super Bowl winner in 2012. Jacksonville hasn’t made the postseason during the past eight seasons. But tradition isn’t going to mean anything here because the Ravens have an old roster while the Jaguars are younger and more talented.

The Jaguars nipped the Ravens last year on a 53-yard field goal at the gun after given one more play following a questionable penalty call. Baltimore is better than its 5-11 record of a year ago, but don’t be fooled by the Ravens’ 2-0 mark. They’ve played two winless teams in the Bills and Browns. They now face a third, as the Jags return from the West Coast a desperate 0-2 club with a narrow loss to the Packers and a butt-kicking by the Chargers. But Chris Ivory is ready to make his season debut, giving them a power back to go with their high-powered passing attack spearheaded by Blake Bortles and star wide receiver Allen Robinson. Tight end Julius Thomas is making a bigger impact, too, this season.

Meanwhile, Joe Flacco still isn’t at 100 percent. He has yet to develop chemistry with his receivers and the Ravens’ pass rush is depleted with Elvis Dumervil out and Terrell Suggs not in peak condition yet. The spot is ripe for the Jaguars to show just how talented they are. Even during some of their peak winning years, the Ravens have had trouble winning on the road under Harbaugh. They haven’t been above .500 away from home since 2010.

Glauser:

I feel like the Jags are like that new relationship with a sexy partner who passed some major gas and made me second-guess how attracted I am to them. After a promising moral victory of sorts to the Packers in Week 1, Jacksonville, with its fantasy offense and new-look defense, flatulated all over the field in San Diego. And all of a sudden, I have my doubts now how attractive this team really is.

The saving grace is that this is pretty much a must-win for the Jags to stay relevant this season. That motivation, plus a return to Jax and a return from Ivory, might be just enough to ensure they don’t stink up the place again.

Nov 2, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid on the sidelines against the New York Jets in the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

New York Jets (+3) at Kansas City Chiefs

FiftyFourPercent:

Rusty or not, Jamaal Charles is likely to make his season debut for the Chiefs. That’s not going to matter because the Jets should control the trenches and also have the superior skill position talent. Unlike Alex Smith, Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t hesitate to attack downfield. He has the wide receivers to do it, too, with Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, and emerging force Quincy Enunwa, who is one of the better No. 3 wideouts in the league. Fitzpatrick, at 33, is playing his best ball and running back Matt Forte is rejuvenated upon coming from the Bears.

Kansas City continues to be without its best and most versatile defender, pass rushing star Justin Houston. The Chiefs couldn’t manage a touchdown against the Texans last week because Smith can’t drive the ball downfield and is playing behind a banged-up offensive line. The Jets’ defensive line is as good as the Texans with a top-notch trio of Muhammad Wilkerson, Leonard Williams, and Sheldon Richardson. The Jets also have the advantage of extra rest having played last Thursday.

Glauser:

Look, I’ve doled my share of criticism toward Andy Reid over the years, like here, here and even here. But I’ll concede that Big Red has exceeded my expectations in Kansas City. He’s maximized the talent he has and remains one of the best at having his players ready to play on gameday. True, he still can’t win the big games (cue the collective solemn nod from Philadelphia Eagles Nation), but this game isn’t that big and a Charles return to the backfield at home could be the X-factor.

The truth is that I can’t put my finger on either of these teams. Both are crapshoots, capable of going 7-9 or 11-5. Flip a coin on this one.

Oct 14, 2013; San Diego, CA, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) and San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17) hug after a Chargers win at Qualcomm Stadium. The Chargers won 19-9. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. San Diego Chargers

FiftyFourPercent:

It’s just Week 3, but already desperation time for the 0-2 Colts. We can see Andrew Luck winning a shootout against Philip Rivers. The Colts are weak in the trenches and their secondary is patched-up, but they are a gutty team. They went 8-8 last season and that was with a washed-up Matt Hasselbeck starting around half their games. The Chargers aren’t good against the run. That’s important here because Luck’s play-action can now be effective. Luck has the better skill position talent around him. T.Y. Hilton easily will be the best wide receiver on the field.

Rivers is savvy as always. He won’t have his best wideout, Keenan Allen, though, nor Danny Woodhead, his much-underrated receiver out of the backfield, who have both suffered season-ending knee injuries the past two games. San Diego is 3-7 without Allen since last year. The Chargers were outscored 30-6 by the Chiefs when Allen left that game. This is a long journey for the Chargers and Luck is the best quarterback they have faced all season.

Glauser:

Remember when the Colts were trendy Super Bowl picks? I do since I foolishly picked them just last year. Pair them with the snake-bitten Chargers and you have two of the most disappointing teams in the league in recent seasons taking the field in this one. Just in the past week, Indy loses its most promising wide receiver (Donte Moncrief) and San Diego loses its most versatile running back (Woodhead), days after their best receiver (Allen) went down again!

Like the Jags, the Colts have to play this one as a season-deciding game, whereas the Chargers don’t have as much on the line (except perhaps another star’s knee getting torn to shreds).

Also: Pick the over on players getting carted off the field.

Nov 30, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) passes against the Minnesota Vikings in the second quarter at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Carolina Panthers (-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings

FiftyFourPercent:

Hard to buck the Panthers at home where they have covered 74 percent of their last 28 games going 20-7-1 against the spread. Known for its defense, Carolina also averaged 31.3 points per game in 2015. The Panthers should at least match that figure with Kelvin Benjamin in the lineup. He’s already scored three touchdowns after missing last year.

Sam Bradford was impressive in his Vikings debut this past Sunday night against Green Bay, but the Vikings lost Adrian Peterson to a knee injury. Peterson, however, was showing real slippage averaging less than 65 yards per game rushing during his last 10 games compared to a 96-yard per game career average.

Glauser:

Technically, the Panthers remain undefeated: Last week, they beat the 49ers, and in Week 1, they beat themselves. And frankly, it’s been quite a while since a team has beaten Carolina without the team letting them. And can you imagine what reigning MVP Cam Newton’s capable of now that he has a legit No. 1 receiving threat in Benjamin? Scary stuff.

Meanwhile, actually, undefeated Minnesota now has two losses: Teddy Bridgewater and AP. And both hurt. Bradford did a yeoman’s job last week with minimal prep time but his track record still speaks for itself and I saw firsthand last season how much he struggled without a reliable running game. Stefon Diggs, the league’s newest wide receiver superstar, will be tasked with putting on another show.

With that said, I’m a believer in Mike Zimmer, as few current head coaches have done more with less. I can see the Vikings keeping it close based on sheer willpower alone. Another Bradford gem wouldn’t hurt, either.