New Orleans Saints

Saints vs. Lions: Five brave predictions

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The New Orleans Saints host the Detroit Lions this Sunday. With five games left to play in the year, it’s one of the Saints’ toughest matchups. And if they lose, it could spell the end of their underwhelming 2016 season.

Who Dat Dish has some brave predictions for the matchup. Some predictions are not so brave. Others are statistically unlikely. But we’ll try to present some idea of how we think the game will turn out.

Nov 27, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) points to the Los Angeles Rams defense during the first half of a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The Saints win the first half.

There are two sides to this prediction, and one of them is more likely than the other.

On the one hand, the Saints offense in all likelihood will win the first half. They typically come out of the gates swinging. Their scripted first fifteen plays are almost always executed to perfection, and it puts a lot of pressure on a defense when a unit with this many weapons operates efficiently.

Not to mention that Payton’s offensive approaches are usually heavily gameplan-dependant. It can take defensive coordinators some time to adjust their scheme to cover what the Saints are doing. And Lions DC Teryl Austin is, much like Dennis Allen, a second-half, gameday adjustment type coach.

And that brings us to the second half of the prediction. It may be more of a hope than a likelihood. I predict that the Saints defense wins the first half of the contest, as well.

The Lions have a great offense. But things really start to click for them in crunch time, with the game on the line. It’ll be important for the Saints to take care of business before the 4th quarter. That means winning the first half.

We’ve seen Dennis Allen come back, in the second half of games, with great defensive adjustments. And that’s wonderful. I hope to see more of that this week. But first half execution of the an effective gameplan is crucial against this Lions team. Leads are hardly safe against Detroit. So we’ll have to take a big one.

So a strong first half, the first of my bold predictions.

Nov 27, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) celebrates a quarterback sack against the Los Angeles Rams in the second half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints won, 49-21. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

The Saints make the Lions one-dimensional.

The Lions, like I said, have a dangerous offense. Matt Stafford is an elite and sometimes underappreciated quarterback. He’s got almost as many receiving threats at his disposal as does Brees. Between Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Eric Ebron, Anquan Boldin, and Theo Riddick, there’s a lot of talent at the skill positions.

But, through 11 games, the Lions have rushed for the third-least yards in the league. They’re gaining only 3.7 yards per attempt. And, as I’m sure we’re all equally surprised about, the Saints have become a respectable run defense.

If the Saints can contain the Lions’ run game and force them to be one-dimensional, it will obviously be huge for the defense. It will help contain YAC players like Golden Tate and allow us to play with solid safety help behind open-field players like Riddick and Jones. It won’t be easy stopping this Lions offense, but the first step is containing the run.

Nov 27, 2016; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks (10) signs autographs for young fans before the game against the Los Angeles Rams at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Payton dials up Cooks’ number early and often.

Yes, somehow, the Saints put up 49 points against the Rams and Brandin Cooks went without A SINGLE target. Hard to believe.

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Payton said that the Rams gameplanned to take Cooks out of the offense, with heavy safety help and zone coverages sagging in Cooks’s direction. And for the most part, I believe that.

The difference between now and other years is that, if teams choose to blanket Cooks, it just leaves far too much of the field open for other options. You need to be aware of Michael Thomas and Willie Snead, or you’ll get killed.

With that in mind, I’d be shocked if the Lions took anywhere near the same approach to this game. Expect the defense to play the offense honestly. They may even look to stack the box and for the Saints to be one-dimensional. If so, Cooks should have a field day. And either way, as Cooks said himself, closed mouths don’t get fed. Well, Cooks’s mouth is certainly open now. Time to feed him.

Nov 6, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Golden Tate (15) beats Minnesota Vikings free safety Harrison Smith (22) and scores a touchdown to win the game at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Lions won 22-16 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Golden Tate carries the Lions offense.

I hate playing against Golden Tate. It seems like he kills us every time we play the Lions. He’s worse than Greg Olsen. (Okay, maybe not.)

The problem with Tate isn’t that he’s an elite receiver. Everyone knows the deal: he’s almost impossible to bring down once he makes a reception. And it’s so frustrating. He puts the teams weakest tacklers, CBs, in bad positions, forces them to make tackles in the open field.

Now, this defense doesn’t have an outstanding group of tacklers at corner. Breaux is likely the best of the bunch, but we’ve yet to see him really play up to his level yet this year.

Behind him, Sterling Moore and Ken Crawley both have the frames to bring him down. But both players, despite their tools, have whiffed on more than a few tackles on the year. And B.W. Webb is just not an outstanding tackler. It will be on our safeties, who have admittedly tackled very well of late, to keep Tate contained. Between Bell, Byrd, and Vaccaro, the unit is more than up for the task. The problem is that they can’t be around him every play. The Lions offense will work to get Tate away from safety help, where he can do the most damage.

So the most frustrating of my predictions: Golden Tate scores at least once and helps this offense move the ball up and down the field.

Nov 24, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) runs the ball during the fourth quarter of a NFL game on Thanksgiving against the Minnesota Vikings at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

The Lions win the 4th quarter.

I, for one, am sick of nail-biters. I’m sick of panic in the 4th quarter. I’m sick of worrying about the season being over. So I’m not looking forward to this game.

The Lions offense is unquestionably most dangerous down the stretch. So no matter what the score is, the Lions will likely have a shot in the 4th quarter to win the game.

I expect the Saints to have a lead going into the fourth. Of course, you never know what will happen. If the Brees and the Saints decide to have a turnover-day, which is always possible, then this game might be over before it even starts. But if they can hold onto the ball and play some semblance of defense, I think they can get the better of the Lions matchup-wise.

But when crunch-time comes, and the Saints need to hold for a stop, I’m not sure how optimistic I am. Stafford is one of the best in those situations.

If the Saints can prove me wrong and hold it down in the 4th, I’ll have renewed respect and faith in this team. Though with the playoffs looking like a longshot, I’m not sure how much faith I really want to have.

So the last of my brave predictions: Matt Stafford and the Detroit Lions win the 4th quarter. But will it be enough?

Brave predictions honorary mention: Delvin Breaux finally comes alive? Okay, I’ll admit it, this is now the third time I’m predicting a positive performance from Breaux, which we have yet to see. Just last week I made the “brave predictions honorary mention” that Breaux wouldn’t allow a single reception. Well, that didn’t work out, and I’m not going to be so brave this week. But please, Breaux, we need you. Come to life.

Brave Predictions Final Score: Saints 34, Lions 30

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