While the Miami Dolphins have a long list of issues in need of fixing, the real key to turning their season around is no great mystery. One simply needs to understand what the team’s statistics are screaming out at us.
When reading the headline to this article, many fans will jump to immediate conclusions. Some will blame quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Others will point the finger at the lack of a running game. There are those who will accuse the defense of being ridiculously porous. While a few may even hold rookie head coach Adam Gase responsible.
The truth is, to a greater or lesser degree, they would all be correct. However, to arrive at a more precise sense of what issue the Dolphins must immediately tackle, we must delve deeper into the specifics of the 2016 season. To that end, I have laid out a statistical breakdown spanning 27 categories, both offensive and defensive, showing how the Dolphins have performed in each individual game thus far.
At first glance, what these numbers show is that Miami has been woefully inconsistent. To illustrate this point clearly, large statistical variances, be they positive or negative, have been highlighted in bold.
Miami 1st Downs
Miami 3rd down efficiency
Miami Total Plays
Miami Total Yards
Miami Yards per Play
Miami Passing Yards
Miami Pass Attempts
Miami Rushing Yards
Miami Rush Attempts
Miami Red Zone %
Miami Sacks Allowed
Miami Turnovers Comm
Time of Possession
Opp 1st Downs
Opp 3rd down eff.
Opp Total Plays
Opp Total Yards
Opp Yards per Play
Opp Passing Yards
Opp Pass Attempts
Opp Rushing Yards
Opp Rush Attempts
Opp Red Zone %
Opp Sacks Allowed
Opp Turnovers Comm
*-26:27 was in regulation time. Overtime total was 29:12.
While this chart presents more information than most can digest after just a quick glance given all of the statistical variations, to the trained eye, the real key to the Dolphins’ troubles is easy to spot. For it is not hidden in the many anomalies, but rather, it lurks in three of the most stable aspects of Miami’s game.
The Dolphins have trailed in time of possession by an average of 9:59 per game.
This, in turn, has allowed opponents to average 76 offensive plays per game, which has resulted in an ever more tired and ineffective Dolphins’ defense as games have worn on.
To make matters worse, Miami isn’t getting opposing offenses off the field by way of interceptions and fumble recoveries, averaging a mere 1.3 turnovers per game.
So, what has set this domino effect into motion? Poor third down production. Simple as that.
Despite some success during the 2nd half of the New England game, overall, the Dolphins have converted on just 29% of their third down opportunities this season, and as the following points will illustrate, that is a recipe for failure.
As a result of Miami’s third down woes, their drives have averaged 4.72 plays and taken 2:00 off the clock. In contrast, their opponents have averaged 6.4 plays per drive and eaten 2:56 worth of time. That creates a huge time of possession differential. Furthermore, as previously stated, the Dolphins have compounded their woes by committing 7 turnovers, while forcing just 4 takeaways.
To further accent the importance of both third down conversions and takeaways, consider that the 3-0 Patriots have experienced exactly the opposite dynamic to this point, converting 48% of their third downs this season. As a result, on average, they have controlled the clock 9:54 longer than their 2016 opponents. Moreover, they have also forced 7 turnovers, while giving the ball away just 3 times.
One factor that has surely hurt the Dolphins’ ability to produce turnovers is fatigue. Yet, their failures cannot be blamed solely on exhaustion brought on by the offense’s inability to sustain drives. For example, in week two, the Patriots sliced through Mami’s defense like a hot knife through butter on their first three possessions, producing an early 21-0 lead. That had nothing to do with being worn down. The defense simply didn’t find ways to get off the field.
Thus, despite all the inconsistencies on both sides of the ball, if the Miami Dolphins want to be successful against Cincinnati Thursday night and take a giant leap towards salvaging their season, the solution is clear. Ryan Tannehill must simply be more efficient on third downs while Ndamukong Suh and company must be equally diligent in finding ways to produce more turnovers. It is a fix that won’t come easily, but it must come. Because, until it does, the Dolphins will remain their own worst enemies and have virtually no chance at the playoffs.