Houston Texans

Here's What is Left to Make Las Vegas Raiders a Reality

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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HOUSTON — Back in January, Mark Davis had just watched his plan to move the Raiders down the I-5 to Carson, Calif., go up in smoke, and he had every reason to hang his head as the Rams’ Inglewood project was voted through, and the Chargers got the first shot to join them. As it turns out, the circumstance set the stage for a different kind of defining moment than the one the Oakland owner wanted at that meeting.

“The Raiders will be OK,” he told the other owners, standing before them. “We’re going to figure this out.”

And that’s just what he’s done. With a swiftness that has league scrambling to catch up, Davis has driven a deal with Las Vegas—grounded in a record-setting $750 million in public money—towards the goal line. Davis made a short presentation on Vegas to the other NFL owners Wednesday morning at their meetings in a Houston hotel. A Raiders-to-Nevada deal won’t get done tomorrow, but it’s far closer now than anyone would’ve imagined 10 months ago.

This is a different Davis. He’s more gracious than his father, to be sure, and he’s a better deal-maker than anyone believed this time last year.

In this week’s Game Plan, we’ll break down Aaron Rodgers’ problems, take a deeper look at the Jets’ rebuild and the mistakes made in re-signing Ryan Fitzpatrick, check on Landry Jones in Pittsburgh, and examine the quality-of-play issue the league is fighting.

We start with the increasing possibility, even probability, that Vegas could become an NFL reality at the turn of the next decade, and the most unlikely story behind it: the ascending status in league circles of Al Davis’ much-maligned son is a big reason why it’s come together so quickly.

“He’s earned a great deal of respect amongst the owners,” said Chargers owner Dean Spanos, who was Davis’ partner in the failed Carson project. “He’s a committed owner. He loves the business. He’s in this for the long haul. And I think he’s gonna be successful in Las Vegas if he gets there, which I think he will. It remains to be seen obviously, but that’s my opinion—he’ll get there.”

An NFC owner echoed the sentiment, “He’s gained a lot of respect in the room.” The team president for another NFC team made a good point, as well: “Who else has come up with $750 million in public funding?”

Davis won’t ever be regarded as a top businessman among NFL owners, nor will he be the smartest guy in that room. But an underlying theme in the Los Angeles saga over the past five years was that the league would never trust Davis to steer its future in America’s second-largest market.

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Now, most owners—or at least every single one I talked to here—appear amenable to handing Davis the thorny assignment of bringing the NFL to our country’s entertainment capital. It’s the same task his father was long whispered of wanting.

“I completely respect how he’s handled the process over the last year,” Chiefs CEO Clark Hunt said. “I know he had to be incredibly disappointed in not being one of the teams selected, at least initially, to go to LA. And I just think the way he’s handled it speaks to his maturity. I think people respect that he’s created another option for himself in Las Vegas.”

That, of course, hardly means there aren’t challenges ahead for the Raiders in trying to get to Vegas around 2020 or so. So after talking to league people, owners and team executives, here are a few things to remember going forward …

• Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson has committed $650 million to the project, but just what his return would be remains murky. NFL bylaws say his involvement in gaming means he can’t own a piece of the team, and the league is highly unlikely to bend on that. There has been talk that he’d only get revenue from non-NFL events, though there’s the question whether that’d be enough to make the investment worth his while. There are also Adelson’s connections to characters like gambling tycoon Stanley Ho that would come under scrutiny as the league vets his involvement.

• The hotel-tax funding ($750M) plus Adelson’s commitment equals $1.3 billion for a project expected to cost between $1.6 billion and $1.7 billion. The rest would come from the NFL and the Raiders.

• There’s also the matter of getting the 24 votes to approve the move. At this juncture, with so little known, there’s a small group of owners (led by Dallas’ Jerry Jones) who support the project, a small group of older-school owners opposing. The great majority remain undecided.

• Another question: how the casinos will handle having an NFL team in town. On the surface, the idea of taking all football games off the board seems to be a non-starter. Would all Raider games be off the board? That would need to be worked out.

• Commissioner Roger Goodell conceded Wednesday that while the league still opposes legalized sports gambling, attitudes in general have shifted. One team exec pulled out his phone the other day, and said, “I can place a bet right here right now. The problem is the 75-year-old white guys in that room, thinking Vegas is what it was 30 years ago. But that’s workable.”

• Maybe the biggest concern with gaming? The flow of information. All that’s pertinent to the results of games is valuable to gamblers and, by extension, a lot of people in Vegas’ business community. So the question then becomes whether the proximity of players to those people—in this day and age—is even relevant.

• It may not be necessary to have two NFL teams in the Bay Area, but the league likes the growing, wealthy areas of the North Bay and East Bay. On paper, that should be easier for the Raiders to leverage with the Niners now in the South Bay. So it’s not like the league won’t lose a thing by leaving Oakland.

• The expectation is the city of Oakland and the league will make another run at keeping the Raiders. The concept of the league acting as developer in such a project—like it did in the 1990s with Cleveland—could wind up on the table.

• The viability of Vegas as a long-term NFL market certainly needs to be quantified. Davis said Wednesday the team has already completed a market study and has plans for two more; the NFL will do its own too.

• The relocation fee has to be discussed, too. It was $550 million for the Rams. The Raiders’ fee likely won’t be as large, but that doesn’t mean it will be an easy piece.

So where are things now? The financing piece of the deal—usually the hardest part to complete—moved much faster than anyone expected, which is why the league keeps preaching patience as the other elements catch up. That is a credit to Davis following through on his conciliatory remarks of January.

“He’s earned some respect by putting together this potential deal,” Texans owner Bob McNair said. “We hope it’ll be a firm deal. All the pieces aren’t in place yet, but yeah, he’s taken very positive steps.”

Truth be told, it is more than many of the owners and league executives really thought he’d get done.

* * *

FIVE NAMES FOR THE WEEKEND

1. Based on how the coaches moved him against the Jets, Tyrann Mathieu is the guy I’m most excited to watch Sunday, as Arizona hosts Seattle.

2. Bill Belichick’s complaints about tablets are understandable, but you can bet he’ll go back to them if the NFL starts allowing coaches to use video on the sideline.

3. Vontaze Burfict’s actions against New England did not look accidental, and the guy was just put on ice for this crap, so he should’ve been suspended again.

4. He isn’t Adrian Peterson, but Jerick McKinnon’s versatility has opened up the Viking offense—and helped Sam Bradford. Now, McKinnon gets to face the guy his coaches compare him to: Darren Sproles.

5. The Redskins’ talent base has improved over Scot McCloughan’s two years and is better than most people think. There’s a reason they’ve won eight of their past 10 games.

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* * *

FOUR DOWNS

1. What’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers? We probably won’t get the answer to that question tonight anymore than we did in Week 3, when the two-time MVP fired four touchdown passes on Detroit—only to regress following the Packers bye. What we know is Rodgers is on pace for career lows in yards per game, passer rating and completion percentage, and a career high in picks. And we also know this extends to last season, maybe best illustrated by this tweet from my buddy Mike Garafolo. So where’s the problem? Rumors have flown about Rodgers being distracted, and another I’ve heard recently is that he’s become bored. What’s certain is that coaches I’ve spoken with have noticed mechanical breakdowns in his play. “He’s much less accurate,” said one defensive coach, whose team played the Packers. “He doesn’t seem to throw much on rhythm anymore. In fact, he’s holding the ball and scrambling to extend plays for as long as possible so he can get the ball downfield. In the past, it seemed like the ball came out sooner—more slants and stops to the outside receivers. There’s still some of that, but much less. So we felt we needed to keep him in the pocket and stay on our coverage as plays extended, and we did that for the most part. And you can see where he doesn’t seem to have his feet right, from a mechanics standpoint.” Another coach pointed out problems with Rodgers footwork, and both said that’s why he’s missing high at times. At any rate, I did circle back with a Packers source, who said the “distracted” narrative is overblown, and added that the whole offense has been out of sync, which has made Rodgers look even worse. At any rate, there’s no question something isn’t right with a player who was operating at as high a level as I’ve seen as recently as last September.

2. The Steelers can trust Landry Jones more than they used to. And they were actually OK with him last season, which was really the first year they were comfortable getting him regular-season action after reworking everything about his game. Coming from the Oklahoma spread, Jones had to overhaul his footwork, learn how to take drops and throw off play-action, grow into being able to go through full-field progressions, and build the patience to sit in the pocket and let plays develop. He also played more preseason snaps the past two years than any quarterback in football, and got two starts for an injured Ben Roethlisberger in 2015. And yes, there was the four-pick debacle this preseason. But there also was a couple long touchdown drives against the Saints. Add it up, and Mike Tomlin and OC Todd Haley and QB coach Randy Fichtner feel about as good as they can, given the circumstances, and the time they’ve put into developing Jones. The feeling now is he has better feel in the pocket and is more confident than he was last year, not to mention more experience. And here’s one piece of proof: Last year, the Steelers handed off some responsibility for setting protections to veteran center Cody Wallace to take some pressure off Jones. I’m told there’s no plan to do that this time around. Jones will handle it, mostly because the Steelers feel he’s capable of shouldering the load.

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3. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s flight as a Jet cut short. The Jets’ decision to cave to Ryan Fitzpatrick’s contractual demands in July didn’t come without some internal disagreement, and now it’s easy to see why. The logic in going to Fitz’s number (Jets’ one-year offer was at $8 million, they went to $12 million) was simple—the team had a good thing with a strong layer of vets on the roster in 2015, and it made sense to keep that going. The dissenting opinion was that the quarterback was, based on history, unlikely to repeat his career year, and the Jets weren’t to the championship level where it’d make sense to sell out for a middling quarterback approaching 34. The first sign of trouble came in camp, where Geno Smith looked comparable to Fitzpatrick. What came next has been ugly, and led to the Fitzpatrick benching and Smith getting another shot. The situation will remain fluid from here. Fitzpatrick could start again. It’s also my understanding that the Jets want to get Bryce Petty some real game action, to get a better idea where they are with him. As for the rest of the roster, the Todd Bowles/Mike Maccagnan regime has known since arrival that big changes were needed. The idea has been to pull off a “competitive rebuild” because it’s hard to bottom out and keep your job in New York. And with players like Leonard Williams, Jordan Jenkins, Darron Lee, Quincy Enunwa and Robbie Anderson adding to a young core headed by Mo Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson, that effort is underway. But it’s important to understand that years of shaky drafting put the Jets in a hole that it’ll take time to climb out. Consider this stat: Of the 42 players the Jets cut from their 53-man roster over the past two years (meaning cuts that came during the season), only 13 are still in the league. That’s a pretty good illustration of how depth here is still a work in progress.

4. Lions depth showing up. The No. 1 reason that Detroit will go into Sunday’s game against the Redskins jockeying for playoff position wears No. 9. Really since last November’s coordinator switch to Jim Bob Cooter, Matthew Stafford has been one of the five or so best quarterbacks in football. But nearly important has been the balance and improved depth of the roster, something a bunch of the coaches have raved about since summer, which is a tribute to new GM Bob Quinn’s Patriot-centric emphasis on building the team’s middle class. Here’s how Jim Caldwell explained it to me in August: “We’re a more competitive group. We’re deeper. We gotta stay healthy too; that can change things in an instant. But if things stay as they are, it’s gonna happen that way. And we’re gonna have some real battles in the meantime. When there’s a lot of good competition out there for positions, typically, that’s the makings of a good football team. We’re excited about that.” A couple weeks after that, coaches in Detroit described the roster cutdown to me as being much more difficult than the year before, as a result of the improved depth. And now we’re seeing Quinn’s work on display. Detroit has been able to work through injuries at safety, running back, and on both lines, and remain competitive. It’s made the coaches’ job easier. It’s also made it more likely that the Lions will sustain their solid start.

* * *

THREE CHECKDOWNS

• Loved my talk with new Bills offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn on the podcast. Lynn told me the biggest change he’s made is taking Greg Roman’s playbook, and trying to emphasize what the players are already good at, which he thinks increases the chances for success and builds confidence. Obviously, it’s working. The Bills have topped 130 yards in each of the past four weeks and are averaging 211.8 yards on the ground per game over that period. Another interesting point Lynn made: He thinks play-calling experience is an overrated element in identifying a good head coach, because “it’s a different job.” Lynn has garnered three interviews the past two years and is likely to be in play again this year. Buffalo gets Miami, and exiled ex-Bill Mario Williams, on Sunday.

• Brock Osweiler goes home to Denver on Monday night, and he’ll do it coming off his best stretch as a Texan—the QB went 13-of-15 for 167 yards and two touchdowns on Houston’s final three possessions Sunday, after starting 12-of-24 for 102 yards and a pick. And in a way, this affirms one aspect of the Texans’ work on Osweiler prior to signing him. A lot was made of the fact that Bill O’Brien hadn’t talked to Osweiler prior to his agreement on a four-year, $72 million deal. Obviously, they tried to make up for that through research. One thing they liked was how level-headed and hard-to-rattle Osweiler was said to be. The way he rolled with the punches Sunday, and through some really uneven football the past few weeks, is proof positive—the one sideline freakout notwithstanding—that the Texans’ info was good.

• We’ll have a little more on this next week, but there’s no better example of addition by subtraction than what we’re seeing in Dallas. Greg Hardy’s departure has, at least, contributed to the Cowboys reprising the kind of locker chemistry they had two years ago when they won 12 games. And that kind of healthy dynamic is what teams lean on to get through tougher times, which is just what the Cowboys were facing when Tony Romo got hurt. Dak Prescott has been a gigantic part of that, of course. But it’s helped that he’s coming up in a locker room that’s not sideways.

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* * *

TWO COLLEGE PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett (at Alabama, CBS, 3:30 p.m. ET): Garrett’s four sacks don’t illustrate the freak show he is, or the scary potential he has as a pro. If a quarterback doesn’t go first overall next April, Garrett is the overwhelming favorite to be taken atop the draft. He’s a pass-rusher with few holes in his game. Three comparisons I heard this week: A) Von Miller; B) a more explosive, athletic Joey Bosa; and C) a version of Jevon Kearse that’s 25 pounds heavier. Suffice it to say, expectations couldn’t be much further out of control. “Generational player,” is how one area scout described him. “Nothing he can’t do. Scheme wrecker. Complete player.” This week, Garrett gets perhaps his toughest test of the season, facing fellow Top 10 prospect Cam Robinson and the imposing Alabama line. I figured it might be a chance to see some of Garrett’s weaknesses, but those who’ve studied him swear there aren’t many. “You could nitpick stuff from snap to snap but it’s minor nonsense that people will say just to say something,” said the area scout. “He’s quick, explosive, plays long, strong, flexible, can change directions. He may take a play off from time to time but he's usually battling 2-3 blockers so it’s gonna happen. I'm more interested to see how Cam does against him, not vice versa.” Should be a fun matchup to watch, and one decision-makers will see tape of again in March and April.

2. Southern Methodist WR Courtland Sutton (vs. Houston, ESPN2, 7 p.m.): Want a guy from a mid-major program everyone will know a lot more about in a few months, when draft hype kicks into high gear? This guy is one. Sutton is 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, a physical specimen with the capacity to become a bona fide No. 1 at the NFL level. Through six games for the struggling Mustangs, Sutton has 30 catches for 590 yards and four touchdowns. “He’s a big, explosive receiver with a great catch radius,” said one AFC personnel exec. “He’s been flying under the radar because the quarterback is bad, but we all know about him.” His backstory is interesting too. Sutton got hurt and medically redshirted his freshman year, then came back and played both football and basketball as a redshirt freshman during the 2015-16 school. So as you’d expect, he’s still a little raw, needs to improve his route-running, and may be seen as a bit of a project by some. Still, his physical ability should give him a solid shot at landing in the first round.

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EXTRA POINT

A few weeks ago, I laid out the three reasons I believe are behind the ratings’ swoon, and I’ll give them to you here again:

1) Younger fans are less likely to sit on their asses for 12 hours on a Sunday, and more likely to just follow what they can on mobile devices;
2) Too many game windows mitigate the scarcity of the product that’s always been an NFL advantage;
3) Quality of play/death of parity.

(For the record: I don’t buy the league’s excuse of it being an election year; after all, college football ratings are up.)

The first two are business elements that I believe the NFL will find a way to work out over the long haul. The final piece won’t be easy to fix.

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After talking to people at the league meetings, and then a few football-side front-office types I trust Wednesday afternoon, I know that there’s awareness to perception of the problem—and the reality that there is one. A few things I found interesting from those discussions:

• Line play/depth: The No. 1 complaint the league office has gotten from coaches on the 2011 CBA’s practice rules is that it’s become impossible to develop backup offensive linemen and, to a lesser degree, quarterbacks. Both positions rarely feature any in-game rotating. Teams are only allowed to hold 14 contact sessions during the 17-week regular season, meaning many reserve linemen have barely hit at all since Labor Day. Think that might have had an impact on how, say, Eagles rookie RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai played in Lane Johnson’s stead Sunday?

• Shifting approaches. The No. 2 complaint on the 2011 CBA rules is that, as one AFC exec explained, “it effects your preparation, so teams can be slower to hit their stride and build up through the season.” One adjustment some teams, like New England, have made is to treat the first few weeks of the season as almost an extended-camp time for team development. Folks at 345 Park will point out that generally you see better play once you get close to Halloween and into November, and it makes sense that this would be part of it.

• Job turnover. There have been 59 coaching changes over the past eight hiring cycles. That’s 7.4 per season, and it’s almost two per team over that stretch. Meanwhile, there are six teams (New England, Green Bay, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Baltimore) that haven’t accounted for a single one of those switches, and there are three others that haven’t made a change in at least five years. So it makes sense that the gap between the steady and schizophrenic teams is growing.

• Overall player development. This plays right back into the rules and the job turnover. The first part is easy—less time to spend, less development comes. As for the second element, imagine you’re a fourth-year Cleveland Brown who plays offense. Three head coaches. Four offensive coordinators. Three GMs. You think that guy has the same shot at reaching his potential as a Patriot or a Packer or a Panther?

• The farm system. College programs don’t exist to deliver NFL talent, but it’s clear that systems at the college level are as varied and innovative as they’ve ever been, making it harder to evaluate and assimilate certain players to the pros. On top of that, the 20-hour rule has cut down on time college players have with their coaches, and the numbers of underclassmen declaring early has been high.

Added practice time or even establishing a developmental league (something Goodell said Wednesday he’d consider) would certainly help in some areas here. Others might never get fixed. Owners like to say they plan to stay patient but often veer from that when public pressure is turned up.

But my feeling is the real answer here is where it always is in the NFL.

The sharpest, most innovative organizations—like New England and Seattle—will adapt to the environment. And some, like New England and Seattle, certainly have. It’s up to everyone else to catch up.

• Question or comment? Email us at talkback@themmqb.com.

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