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NFL Week 8: Survivor Pool Stone Cold Locks

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 7:17 p.m. ET

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If you’re one of the few still standing in your Survivor Pool, keep it that way by taking one of my Stone Cold Locks in NFL Week 8

Last week, I went 3-1 as the Cincinnati Bengals bashed the Cleveland Browns, the New England Patriots wasted the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Denver Broncos rocked Brock Osweiler and the Houston Texans. My lone loss? The Atlanta Falcons falling to the San Diego Chargers in overtime by a field goal. If you remember, the Atlanta pick was my “least stone cold,” and really was more like lukewarm oatmeal. So, if you took them, you did so at your own peril!

NFL Week 8’s games have the smallest point spreads so far this season. Eight contests have a line of three points or less. For the first time, not one spread went above 6.5 points. We could be in store for a barn-burning, nail-biting slate, which is perfectly fitting for the lead-up to Halloween.

As always, there are several matchups that you should not snatch up. The New York Jets are favored by four points in Cleveland against the Browns. I’ve picked against the Frowns just about every week, but something feels off about this week’s clash. There’s a great amount of discord in the Jets clubhouse as Ryan Fitzpatrick is “pissed off.” Head coach Todd Bowles likes that, but it’s hard to tell if Fitz will light up the scoreboard or give up the ball. I’d really like the pull the trigger on this pick, but the Dawg Pound has me doubting.

The other pick that I’ve had my eye on: the Denver Broncos over the San Diego Chargers. San Diego survived their Thursday night game against the Broncos and won the Battle of Atlanta in the Georgia Dome. Though Denver is almost unbeatable at Mile High, the Chargers have been in a position to win every game this season. I believe San Diego has figured out Trevor Siemian and will move the ball with a well-balanced attack.

So, which squads should you roll with? Here are my picks for your NFL Week 8 Survivor Pool.

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New England Patriots over Buffalo Bills

Buffalo is in for a world of hurt. The first meeting between these two teams saw the Bills trying to intimidate and bully third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett, a tactic that worked in a shutout win. Now, the Bills are all kinds of banged up, with LeSean McCoy nursing a hamstring injury and their top three wide receivers most likely not suiting up. Meanwhile, New England has been on a roll thanks to the return of Tom Brady, who’s on a mission to murder everything in his path.

In Buffalo’s Week 4 win, the Patriots fumbled five times and were one for 12 on third downs. Since then, New England’s gone 20-of-39 on third down. Patriots signal callers have the best quarterback rating in the league (also thanks to Tom Brady), having thrown ZERO interceptions. Brady’s quarterback rating is 132.6 over the past three weeks. Opposing quarterbacks have a 79.7 rating against the Bills, due to the incredible pass rush, which has tallied 21 sacks, second most in the NFL. That all should change this week.

Buffalo’s offense is fueled by its running game, which has the highest yards per carry and second most yards per game league-wide. But, as mentioned, LeSean McCoy won’t be at 100 percent and the Patriots run defense is only allowing 3.8 yards per rush and 92.3 yards per game. With the run game shut down and their top three wide receivers out, the Bills might be on the wrong end of a shutout.

The Patriots are favored by 6.5 points on the road.

Oct 9, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) signals at the line of scrimmage against Cincinnati Bengals at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

Dallas Cowboys over Philadelphia Eagles

This is, by far, my boldest stone cold lock of the year. Early on in the season, both Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz were praised for not turning the ball over. However, while Dak has continued to play fairly mistake-free football en route to a 103.9 QB rating, Wentz has looked like a rookie the past two games.

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Philly pulled off what could be considered an upset win over the previously undefeated Minnesota Vikings, but Wentz only completed 50 percent of his passes and threw two interceptions to one touchdown. The previous week, Wentz was sacked five times. Philly escaped with victories each time because of their defense and special teams.

Opposing quarterbacks have performed better than average against the Cowboys pass defense, earning a 95 QB rating as Dallas has allowed more than two-thirds of passes to be completed. The Cowboys also have a below average pass rush, notching just 11 sacks over six games.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s pass defense has collected 20 sacks, tied for third most in the NFL. The Eagles have only allowed six passing touchdowns and opposing quarterbacks have a below average QB rating of 79.7.

Dallas has the best running attack in the league with Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate Ezekiel Elliott carrying behind the best offensive line in football. Philly’s run defense has allowed more than 100 yards per game and 4.5 yards per attempt. If the Eagles can stop the run and force Prescott into long passing downs, they’ll win. If this were played in Philly, I’d take the Eagles.

The Cowboys are favored by 4.5 points at home.

Sep 18, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) celebrates his touchdown during the third quarter against the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings defeated the Packers 17-14. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota Vikings over Chicago Bears

Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is miffed beyond all belief. He’s been irate ever since the closing whistle blew in Week 7. Minnesota suffered their first defeat of the season, a double-digit loss to Philadelphia in which Sam Bradford was sacked six times. When a good team takes an embarrassing loss like that, they bounce back in a big way.

Minnesota’s offense is among the worst in the NFL. Sure, Bradford still has an above average quarterback rating, but his offensive line has been decimated, his receiving targets aren’t threats, and the running game has been virtually non-existent. In Week 8, they go up against an underrated Bears defense that appears average on paper, but has been hampered by injuries and a subpar offense.

Chicago’s offense lost Brian Hoyer to a broken arm in the Thursday night game against the Green Bay Packers, but they get smokin’ Jay Cutler back from a hand injury. Hoyer was actually playing relatively well, throwing six touchdowns and zero interceptions in six games to earn a QB rating of 98. Cutler was averaging around 75 before he went on the injury report.

Minnesota has arguably the best defense in the league, having allowed the fourth fewest passing yards per game, the third fewest rushing yards per game, the fewest total yards per game, and tied for the fewest points allowed. Purple Reign should take out their humiliations against a floundering Bears squad.

The Vikings are favored by 6 points on the road.

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