Indianapolis Colts

NFL Playoffs 2016: 5 reasons Indianapolis Colts will win AFC South

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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The Indianapolis Colts enter Week 14’s home game against the rival Houston Texans at 6-6. Here are five reasons the Colts will win the AFC South.

The 2016 NFL season is entering its last quarter. With only four weeks remaining, the playoff picture in both the AFC and NFC is getting increasingly tighter. One divisional race to keep an eye on is the AFC South.

Entering Week 14, the Houston Texans, the Indianapolis Colts, and the Tennessee Titans are .500 at 6-6. Indianapolis hosts Houston on Sunday afternoon. The Titans and Texans will meet in Nashville on New Year’s Day in Week 17.

As tight as it may look this week, there is one team that will end up winning the AFC South. Here five reasons that team will end up being the Colts.

Dec 4, 2016; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles (5) reacts after a play in the second half against the Denver Broncos at EverBank Field. The Denver Broncos won 20-10. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports

5. Jacksonville is completely toothless and Minnesota’s lack of offense is completely offensive

The Colts need to beat either the Texans on Sunday in Week 14 or on the road in Week 16 against the Oakland Raiders to win the AFC South. If they split those two games, the Colts pretty much got this.

Week 15 might a road game, but it’s a dome game against the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota’s offensive attack is basically quarterback Sam Bradford throwing bubble screens and quick out routes. Even the pitiful Colts defense can survive the death by a thousand paper cuts from Bradford. Playing inside US Bank Stadium gives the Colts another dome game to light it up offensively.

If Indianapolis has to win in Week 17 to win the AFC South at either 9-7 or 8-8, boy, do the Colts have the matchup to succeed. The Colts close out the 2017 regular season against a completely toothless Jacksonville Jaguars team.

Indianapolis might have lost to Jacksonville in London, but this is a Jaguars team that looks to finish are 2-14 and 3-13. There isn’t a more lifeless team in the AFC than the 2016 Jaguars. Week 17 will end up being Gus Bradley’s last game as a head coach in the NFL. Happy New Year!…You’re fired…

Unless the Vikings still feel like they can win the NFC North, the Colts have two games remaining against teams that could be out of playoff contention by the time they play them. On the road against Oakland feels like a loss, but going 3-1 or 2-2 in the last quarter of 2016 should be enough to give the Colts the division crown.

Oct 16, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Indianapolis Colts cornerback Vontae Davis (21) intercepts a pass intended for Houston Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) during the third quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

4. This is the AFC South, where 9-7 wins division titles

The Colts don’t have to be perfect the rest of the way to win the AFC South. Remember, this is the AFC South, where 8-8 to 9-7 teams usually end up clinching the division. The Jaguars and Titans have never won the division since realignment. It’s been about a decade since either of these AFC South teams have been viable playoff threats.

Houston has won the division three times, mostly in years when the Colts have a great deal of uncertainty at the quarterback position. This is not one of those years because Andrew Luck is at full strength after suffering a lacerated kidney in 2015.

Indianapolis needs to beat the Texans on Sunday to avoid the season sweep. If the Colts wrangle Houston and beat Jaguars at home in Week 17, Indianapolis will be at a comfortable 4-2 in AFC South play. They could have the tiebreaker in divisional play should the Texans and Titans also finish 8-8.

Let’s say that the Colts go 3-1 the rest of the way with a loss to the Raiders in Oakland. A 9-7 regular season record probably clinches the AFC South. Should Indianapolis win out to finish 10-6, they win the division outright. Unless the Colts choke in the last quarter of the 2016, they got this at either 8-8, 9-7, maybe even 10-6.

3. Not even Houston likes Houston’s chances

Houston has a problem and it is the quarterback position. Paying free agent Brock Osweiler $72 million before he even met Texans head coach Bill O’Brien was a recipe for disaster for the Texans organization.

The Texans are .500 thanks mostly to strong play in the AFC South (3-0), a soft start to their season, and Romeo Crennel’s defense. One could argue that maybe letting Brian Hoyer go at quarterback was a mistake for the Texans. His 2015 AFC Wild Card wasn’t that bad, right?

With a 3-0 lead in the AFC South and the head-to-head tiebreaker over all of its rivals, how are the Texans going to lose this? Well, they still have to play the Colts and Titans on the road. Houston is a terrible 1-5 on the road this season. With an AFC South title on the line, expect the Colts and Titans to win over Houston in Weeks 14 and 17.

Houston does have two home games against teams they should be favored over in Weeks 15 and 16: Jacksonville and the Cincinnati Bengals. The Texans will beat a lifeless Jaguars team. However, Cincinnati hasn’t quit just yet on the season. The Bengals throttled the Philadelphia Eagles last week and Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis might be coaching for his job.

Overall, Houston may end up with a 4-2 record in division, but feel like a team that will finish 7-9. It doesn’t help that the Texans have lost three straight games and three of four since their Week 9 bye. Houston’s only win since their Week 9 bye: Week 10 on the road against Jacksonville, 24-21. Not even Houston can like its chances to win the AFC South.

2. Indianapolis owns Tennessee

This is the best statistical advantage the Colts have going for them. Indianapolis completely owns Tennessee. Yes, the Colts do own the Titans, as the Colts have won 11 straight over the Titans.

Indianapolis completed the season sweep of the Titans for the fifth straight year. The Colts have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Titans should be teams be tied atop the AFC South at regular season’s end.

Tennessee last beat the Colts on October 30, 2011. Indianapolis went 2-12 in that dumpster fire of a 2011 NFL season. The Colts would finish with the worst record in football and selected Luck No. 1 overall out of Stanford University in the 2012 NFL Draft. Luck has never lost to the Titans in his NFL career.

By having the head-to-head season tiebreaker over a division rival before the final quarter of an NFL season, that bodes tremendously well for a team in playoff contention to end up winning the division. Indianapolis can only split its season series with Houston and Jacksonville, but the Colts continue to own the Titans.

Dec 5, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA;
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) throws against the New York Jets in the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

1. Andrew Luck is the best player in the AFC South

With J.J. Watt’s NFL career in jeopardy due to season-ending back surgery, that means the best player in the AFC South is none other than Luck. Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota can one day challenge Luck in the AFC South, but this is Luck’s division in 2016.

Luck is such a good quarterback for the Colts that he can make up for their myriad of deficiencies as a football team. He makes mediocre receiving weapons look like Pro Bowlers. Luck can win games without having a consistent running game to lean on to milk the clock or an offensive line that can keep him upright in a clean pocket.

Let’s not forget that the Colts defense will give up the big play more often than not. The Colts don’t have a lot of things right as an organization, but they did make the most of their first round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. Indianapolis holds Luck back, but he simultaneously elevates the Colts.

Luck has taken a ton of flak for his interceptions and desire to make plays out of the pocket with his legs. However, he is the reason that the Colts are going to go 2-2, 3-1, or maybe even 4-0 to win the 2016 AFC South division title. Luck is the best player in this division and plays the right position of quarterback for that to matter in the final quarter of the 2016 regular season.