Indianapolis Colts

Is the Colts' future less certain than it seems?

Published Jun. 5, 2015 12:57 p.m. ET

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Peyton Manning is 39. Tom Brady will be 38 in August. The future of the AFC, it would seem, is in the hands of Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts.

At just 25, Luck has already led the Colts to three straight 11-win seasons. The future looks more than promising. But is it really? One NFL pundit says there are significant obstacles ahead for Indianapolis on the way to building a dynasty. Specifically, the team's defense, or lack thereof.

ESPN's John Clayton wrote Friday that the Colts failure to address defensive needs in the draft over the past two years has put the team's future on shaky ground. In an attempt to shore up the team's defense, Colts general manager Ryan Grigson brought in veteran safety Dwight Lowery, linebacker Trent Cole and defensive lineman Kendal Langford this offseason. Those moves have addressed problems now, but Clayton said history shows they are unlikely to provide long-term solutions.

"To fill needs and improve on defense, Grigson has relied heavily on free agency and a trade to land cornerback Vontae Davis," Clayton wrote. "As of the end of last season, the only drafted starters on defense were (linebacker Bjoern) Werner and nose tackle Josh Chapman. That's a concern, because the successful shelf life of free-agent signings is often two or three seasons. In other words, they've made some short-term fixes that could pay off in 2015 -- but the longer-term outlook is more of a concern, even with the presence of Luck, and especially if any of the Jaguars, Texans or Titans make marked improvements over the next two seasons in the AFC South."

With the Colts in win-now mode, the strategy makes sense, but Clayton points to the Atlanta Falcons and their failure to build a complete roster around star quarterback Matt Ryan as an example of the long-term problems that can occur with relying on free agency instead of the draft. After a 13-3 season in 2012, Atlanta went 4-12 in 2013 and finished 6-10 last season.

Clayton also notes that Luck's contract is another significant issue facing Indianapolis. Luck is still playing out his rookie contract, but is in line for what may well be the largest contract in the league. The amount of money the Colts will need to pay Luck will directly impact their ability to spend in free agency.

"Once you're paying full freight for a player of (Luck's) caliber, it won't be as easy to shop in free agency to fill holes the draft isn't taking care of," Clayton wrote. "So the potential roster drain ahead and improvements of competitors in the AFC South -- face it, the Colts have had it good in that division during Luck's tenure -- could make it hard to stay at the 11-win level by 2017 and 2018, particularly if the Colts continue to have to rely on free agency more than the draft."

If the Colts win the Super Bowl in the next two seasons, the strategy will have paid off. If not, the team faces some serious roster issues it will once again have to address.

(h/t ESPN)

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