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How the Green Bay Packers can defeat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 16
What must the Green Bay Packers do to send the Minnesota Vikings home for Christmas and all of January?The once red-hot Vikings are on the brink of a playoff-less season, the Packers’ fortunes in complete contrast. Green Bay rolls into Lambeau Field on the back of four straight victories, and a fifth would set up a winner-takes-all meeting with Detroit in Week 17.ANALYSIS: Packers stock up, stock down entering Week 16Before we can draw up playoff scenarios and dream of a fifth Lombardi Trophy, the Packers must get past their NFC North foes. Minnesota has lost seven of its past nine, but records go out the window in a heated divisional battle.The Vikings left Lambeau with the NFC North title last January. The Packers won’t haven’t forgotten. Saturday afternoon presents an opportunity to take a step towards regaining the division crown while also ending the Vikings’ season.Minnesota has beaten Green Bay the last two times they’ve met. The most recent was in Week 2, the first regular season game played at U.S. Bank Stadium.What must the Packers do to win a fifth straight on Christmas Eve?Next: He's back Sep 18, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) poses for a photo against the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings defeated the Packers 17-14. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Stop Adrian Peterson
He may not be the same player that rushed for 2,097 yards and all the way to the league MVP award in 2012, but Adrian Peterson still figures to be the top priority in Dom Capers’ defensive gameplan.
Peterson’s return from a torn meniscus last week was a disappointing one, rushing six times for 22 yards and a costly fumble.
Expect a heavier workload for the 31-year-old at Lambeau this week, despite a number of question marks surrounding his play. What we don’t know is if he’ll be able to find success behind a depleted offensive line. How much will his play have regressed, if at all, given his age and injury history?
We might find out on Christmas Eve. One thing is for sure: Peterson must be kept quiet. If he greets Lambeau Field with a return to form, Green Bay could be out the playoff race before Santa visits the following morning.
The Packers have dealt with Peterson well in recent meetings. He has averaged just 67.4 yards per game in his past five with Green Bay, although he did find the end zone on all but one occasion.
Preventing Peterson from hitting his stride is priority No. 1 for Dom Capers’ defense.
Dec 18, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Green Bay Packers running back Ty Montgomery (88) is congratulated for scoring a touchdown by quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) during the second half against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Green Bay won 30-27. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Build an early lead
A catalyst in the Packers swapping four losses for the same number of victories has been starting fast. In each of Green Bay’s four consecutive defeats, their opponent scored first. The Packers have taken a 7-0 lead in each of their victories since, scoring a touchdown on their opening possession three times.
The best way to beat Minnesota is to make them play catchup. Running the ball and playing defense is what they’ll look to do at Lambeau Field, but forcing Sam Bradford to duel with Aaron Rodgers only ends one way.
Minnesota’s loss to Indianapolis snowballed out of control. A 10-point deficit after the first quarter became a 27-0 mountain at the half. It was an embarrassment inside their own stadium, and a stagnant Vikings offense had no solution once they fell behind.
The Vikings operate a dink-and-dunk offense that becomes more inefficient the further downfield the ball travels. Of Minnesota’s 504 passing attempts, 19.2 percent have been thrown behind the line of scrimmage, 48.4 percent between 1-10 yards, according to ESPN Stats. Only 117 passes (23.2 percent) have been thrown between 11-40 yards.
The further the ball travels, the lower the completion percentage. Minnesota quarterbacks have completed 75 percent of passes that travel 1-10 yards. This drops to 53.2 percent on passes 11-20 yards, and 46.7 percent on passes 21-30 yards downfield.
Green Bay’s gameplan is simple. Start fast and build a lead. Force Sam Bradford to throw the ball deep.
Dec 18, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Green Bay Packers running back Ty Montgomery (88) runs for a touchdown during the second half against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Green Bay won 30-27. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports
Feed Ty Montgomery
Ty Montgomery is unquestionably Green Bay’s premier rusher after his 162-yard, two-touchdown day in Chicago. The lion’s share of the workload will go his way again this week.
A matchup with Minnesota might sound daunting, but the Vikings have allowed 120 yards per game on the ground over the past month. Frank Gore rushed for 101 yards against them last week.
If protecting Aaron Rodgers’ ailing calf is the priority, running the football effectively is the best course of action. The Packers lacked a reliable ground game in the wake of Eddie Lacy’s season-ending injury, but a newly formed 1-2 punch of Montgomery and Christine Michael can handle upward of 20 carries each game.
Michael’s change-of-pace burned a worn down Chicago defense last week, most evident on his lightning 42-yard touchdown run. The former Seahawk exploded through the hole, breaking a tackle on his way to the end zone.
The two together provide a much-needed spark to a Green Bay offense now capable of pounding the rock frequently. The benefits of a sound run game can’t be understated, and it opens up Mike McCarthy’s playbook.
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