Houston Texans

Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lions: Point Spread & Over/Under

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Oct 16, 2016; Houston, TX, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Frank Gore (23) runs with the ball during the third quarter as Houston Texans defensive end Jadeveon Clowney (90) defends at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Texans vs. Lions – The Texans are 2.5 point favorites. The number is 45.5.

Both the Texans and Lions have 4-3 records. The Lions have the statistical edge in total offense and most passing categories including total passing yards and average yards per pass. The Texans have the edge in rushing including total yards and yards per attempt.

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The Texans appear to have the defensive edge. Interestingly, every quarterback to face Detroit this year finished the game with a quarterback rating (qbr) over 100. In 5 of their last 6 games the Lions have allowed an opposing receiver to top 100 yards. This game offers a path to redemption for Brock Osweiler and DeAndre Hopkins.

The Lions are hot, having won 3 games in a row. However, their schedule has been much less formidable than the Texans’. The Patriots, Vikings, and Broncos have drubbed the Texans. The Lions have played none of them. Detroit lost by a touchdown to the Packers and won close games against the Eagles, Rams and Redskins in their last three outings.

Oct 24, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Houston Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler (17) talks with wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) and wide receiver Will Fuller (15) in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Broncos won 27-9. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Will the quarterback match-up determine the winner?

The quarterback match-up is one-sided statistically. Matt Stafford has outperformed Brock Osweiler in virtually every category. Stafford has been particularly good in the fourth quarter with the game on the line. Would his statistics be as good if the Lions played the Texans’ schedule? Probably not, but Stafford and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter have developed a very effective partnership.

By comparison Osweiler/O’Brien-Godsey don’t appear to be on the same page…or even reading the same book. Osweiler takes most of the heat, and he deserves his share. However, it would be kind to characterize the O’Brien-Godsey game plans as “unimaginative”. Not being all that kind, my terminology is “bland, stagnant and predictable”.

Of course, in developing the game plan the coaches seem to compensate for a porous offensive line, receivers who don’t create separation, and an inaccurate quarterback by calling safe plays. Safe as in “easy to defense”. That makes it tougher for the line, receivers and quarterback to execute.

The Texans have “chicken and the egg syndrome”. Do the player shortcomings cause the overly conservative play calling or do the players underperform because the game plan gives them little chance to succeed. One thing is certain. It’s easier for the coaches to break out of the syndrome by designing a dynamic game plan then it is for the players to excel with their hands tied.

Stepping down from my soapbox, let’s look at the running back match-up. The Texans have the statistical edge, but that’s partly due to an ankle injury to the Lions’ leading rusher, Theo Riddick. Riddick may be back this week, but his effectiveness is questionable. Matt Stafford, of all people, is the Lions’ second leading rusher.

The Texans also have a question mark at running back. Lamar Miller has a tender shoulder incurred in the Denver game. He is likely to play, but how many touches he can handle is questionable. Miller’s back-up, Alfred Blue looked good last week…if you were out of the room getting a beer during his crucial fumble.

Both teams have less than formidable offensive and defensive lines and each team’s linebacker play is up and down with the Texans having the edge. Overall, it looks like both teams will score some points. Most likely, the team that scores last will win.

My Momma taught me that the team with the better quarterback usually wins.

My Dad, who actually played and coached in the NFL, preached that games are won and lost in the trenches. His father, Grandpa Bob, always went with the hot hand. All that favors the Lions. Family tree aside, I am troubled by the Texans performance the first 3 1/2 quarters of the Colts game.

I’ve come to accept that the Texans can’t match-up with the elite teams, especially on the road. But it is particularly troubling that the offense was dominated for most of the game at home by the Colts’ mediocre defense. Still, with everything seeming to favor the Lions I think this game is the Texans’ 2016 Alamo.

Well, actually we lost at the Alamo, but you get the point. It was a gallant stand. The Texans offense is better than it has played. It has to rally this week or the rest of the season is downhill. Top to bottom the Texans have the stronger roster. I think the coaches and players rise to the occasion.

Give the points and take the Over. Texans win 27-24.

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