National Football League
Look between the lines: Handicapping NFL's Week 4 slate
National Football League

Look between the lines: Handicapping NFL's Week 4 slate

Published Sep. 25, 2014 12:47 p.m. ET

James Hernandez has more than 15 years in the sports handicapping industry and will contribute weekly for FOXSports.com as our betting expert. Have comments or questions? Make sure to email him at jameshernandez1981@gmail.com.

During the NFL season, I will attempt to guide you to the winner's circle more often than not. I consider a combination of statistical trends, my own personal player ranking system, and meticulous attention to various wagering techniques that allow me to analyze and formulate a plan of attack.

Each week I will post my five favorite plays in order of preference, best on top and so on. All right, let's get into it:

New York Giants (+3.5) over Washington Redskins

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Thursday Night Football heads to the nation's capital as two old foes renew acquaintances. New York has flat-out dominated the series lately with nine straight-up wins in the last 12 meetings including three of the last four. Eli Manning is coming off his most impressive performance of the season, going 21 of 28 for 234 yards and two touchdowns. Last week was Manning's first game without a pick since Week 11 of last year and with the loss of DeAngelo Hall last week the Redskins are razor thin in the secondary. Washington has a laundry list of players questionable for Thursday including LB Akeem Jordan, TE Jordan Reed, CB Tracy Porter, LB Brian Orakpo and DE Jason Hatcher. In a tight divisional matchup, I will side with veteran coach Tom Coughlin to put together a well-balanced, effective game plan that will give rookie head coach Jay Gruden a rude introduction to this heated rivalry. Take the G-Men with the points as they hang right in this game and possibly even steal an outright divisional win.

New Orleans Saints (-3) over Dallas Cowboys

As the Saints come marching into the house that Jerry built, New Orleans appears ready to continue its success in primetime games. Since the arrival of Sean Payton and Drew Brees in 2006, the Saints own an NFL-best 8-1 record in Sunday night games. Last season, we saw this same matchup and all Brees did was complete 34 of 41 passes for 392 yards and 4 touchdowns. Oh yeah, the Saints also set the all-time NFL record with 40 first downs during the same game. After getting into the win column for the first time last week, New Orleans will look to keep the momentum going against a defense that at the moment can't stop a nose bleed. As miraculous as the Cowboys' 21-point, come-from-behind victory was, it was pure fool's gold and if they spot Brees and company a three-touchdown lead, it will be a wrap. Rob Ryan undoubtedly still holds some ill-will towards Dallas for making him the scapegoat of their tumultuous 2012 season. Luckily for Rob, revenge is a dish best served cold, and you better believe that his defense will play some inspired football and produce the kind of defensive effort that will have people asking if "Bounty Gate" is back in effect. Expect the Saints to dominate all three phases of the game as they continue to work their way back to contender status and easily dispatch an overrated Dallas squad.

Detroit Lions (-1) over New York Jets

Traditionally, when you think about the Detroit Lions, its explosive offense generally comes to mind. However, these aren't your father's Lions. Led by a ferocious defensive line and underrated secondary, the 2014 Lions rank No. 1 in overall defense while allowing an NFL-best 244.3 yards per game. Through three games the Lions D has only surrendered 45 points (15 points per game) and have had their way with opposing offensive lines, tallying 7 sacks as well. With the Jets' top cornerback Dee Milliner still nursing quad and ankle injuries, Rex Ryan must be turning into an insomniac like The Narrator in "Fight Club" as he tries to figure out a way for his undermanned secondary to match up with Megatron and company. As long as Matthew Stafford avoids turnovers and protects the ball, the Lions should have no issue putting points on the board and dictating the pace of the game as they improve to 3-1 on the year with a solid road win in the Big Apple, er, East Rutherford. As for Ryan, if the game ends in a loss and the postgame press conference questions get tough, all he has to do is follow the first rule of Fight Club and he should be just fine.

Indianapolis Colts (-7) over Tennessee Titans

After taking tons of criticism for his play-calling two weeks ago against the Eagles, Colts offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton and his prized pupil Andrew Luck decided to deliver a Mortal Kombat style fatality strike to the hapless Jags last Sunday. Luck improved his record vs. the AFC South to 11-2 after last week's evisceration in Jacksonville and you would have to set the dials on Doc Brown's DeLorean back to Dec. 16, 2012 to find the last time the Colts tasted defeat within the division. Although we are only four weeks into the season this game is as close as it gets to a must-win for Indy. Teams starting the season 1-3 make the playoffs about 20 percent of the time, but that number jumps to nearly 50 percent for teams who start 2-2. It's advisable to jump on this line early as it is sure to garner a ton of one-sided action as the week progresses, especially if Tennessee decides to err on the side of caution and sit Jake Locker. With or without Locker, the Colts should have no issue taking care of business and covering a reasonable point spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars/San Diego Chargers over 44.5

You don't have to be a Rhodes Scholar to realize how pitiful the Jacksonville defense has performed through three games. They have surrendered an astonishing 119 points (39.7 points per game) and have been effectively blown out of each contest, losing by an average margin of 25 points. This plays right into the hands of a very efficient Chargers offense that has jumped out to early leads the last two weeks while sustaining a consistent, balanced offensive attack. The Bolts are depleted at halfback, but Philip Rivers and his receiving corps should be able to pick apart the league's worst pass defense -- which is allowing 306 yards per game and 8.1 yards per completion. This game has all the makings of a blowout and that should help the total, especially if San Diego can take control early and the Jags can add a few garbage time scores late that help drive the total past a considerably low number. 

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