Cleveland Browns

DPD Bettor's Guide: Week 14 "Regression to the Mean Edition"

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Math may not be our resident handicapper’s strong suit, but he is starting to grasp the meaning of the term “regression to the mean” in the NFL.

Even though I never took high school calculus, and I conned my way out of Northwestern’s math/science requirement. But I’ve always loved the term “regression to the mean.”

Now after paying big money for our son, Brian, to earn his physics degree, (Attn: Browns front office, he’s pursuing a data analytics career) I hear “regression to mean” regularly over dinner – without having a clue what it means.

I think it’s when stuff happens just like it’s supposed to happen – and now that each NFL team has played 12 games – 75 percent of the season – my handicapping after last week’s 1-3 card “regressed” my season to the mean of .500. Just like last year, and every year prior when I was betting.

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In this snoozer of an NFL season, that regression includes several “who would watch this?” Week 14 matchups like the San Diego Chargers vs. the Carolina Panthers, the New York Jets vs. the San Francisco 49ers and, yes, Dawg Pound Daily readers, the Cincinnati Bengals vs. the Browns. We wouldn’t bet those games with your money.

But the NFL’s “regression to the mean” playoff scenarios and flex scheduling have created a few match-ups featuring desperate teams fighting for survival – as opposed to the Jags, Niners, Jets and Browns, who are all now just playing for the 2017 draft position.

With that in mind, here are the games worth keeping an eye on – and placing a wager on – this weekend:

Last week 1-3. Season record 28-28-2.

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