Buffalo Bills

Dolphins at Bills: Preview, Prediction, Odds

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 9:02 p.m. ET

Fansided, Cody Williams/FanSided via NFL Spin Zone

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills

The last time that the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins squared off, it was the second chapter of running back Jay Ajayi’s coming-out party. Miami’s sophomore running back put up 214 rushing yards and the Dolphins ultimately controlled the game for a 28-25 victory. But in fact, the score wasn’t quite that close as the Bills scored and converted a two-point conversion to get there. Now with Miami still in the playoff hunt, they travel to New Era Field in Week 16 on Christmas Eve for the rematch.

As stated, the Dolphins are still alive in the AFC playoff race. Of course, they have to finish the season with Matt Moore at quarterback in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill. That makes things more difficult, as do the injuries that both teams have incurred on both sides of the ball.

Meanwhile, the Bills are no longer in a viable position to secure a playoff berth. While that may be the case, though, the likes of LeSean McCoy and others in Buffalo still present a real threat to the Dolphins on any given Sunday…or Saturday.

Here are the keys to victory for both teams on Christmas Eve.

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Keys to Victory

When you look at how Ajayi has fallen off nearing the season’s end, you can’t discredit the impact of the injuries to the offensive line in Miami. However, Buffalo’s run defense has been overly generous all season. Subsequently, committing to Ajayi and the run will be crucial. That’s only amplified by the notion that the Dolphins surely don’t want to make Moore do too much.

On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins have to do essentially the opposite and sell out on the run. With or without Sammy Watkins in the offense for Buffalo, they are a run-first team. As such, loading the box and keeping spies on Tyrod Taylor are going to be absolutely crucial. The Bills can and will beat teams with just their rushing attack, so at least limiting it is necessary on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Rex Ryan needs to put his defensive prowess and blitz packages to good use in this game. As the Dolphins offensive line is depleted, it’s vulnerable to giving up pressure. If Ryan can use both his interior rush and linebackers to get after Moore and make the veteran backup uncomfortable, the bills can essentially control this Christmas Eve matchup.

Odds

Point Spread: Buffalo -5
Moneyline: Buffalo -230, Dolphins +195
Over/Under: 42.5

Prediction

Though the Bills may be favored at home, Moore looked great in his first start in relief of Tannehill. Sure, the Jets have that effect on a lot of quarterbacks, but it’s promising for Miami. More importantly, though, Buffalo was one of the two teams that Ajayi gashed for over 200 yards rushing. While the offensive line isn’t the same, the Bills poor run defense is. I say Miami gets the win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Pick: Miami Dolphins: 23, Buffalo Bills: 17