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Going in-depth and breaking down the Cincinnati Bengals' specialists.
We are in the heart of the offseason; that means it's time for overall evaluation and projection when it comes to the Cincinnati Bengals heading into the 2017 season.
Thus, we've been going through the Bengals one position group at a time. The quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, offensive linemen, defensive linemen, linebackers, cornerbacks, and safeties have all been delved into already.
We finish this exercise with the specialists.
Specialists
K Randy Bullock (5/6 FGs, 6/6 XPs)
K Jonathan Brown (N/A)
K Jake Elliott (N/A)
P Kevin Huber (78 punts, 46.3 gross average, 39.5 net average, 10.3 touchback %, 29.5 inside 20 %)
LS Clark Harris (N/A)
* = expected starter | 2016 statistics in parenthesis
Of all the positions on a roster, the specialists tend to go relatively unnoticed. When things go well, they tend to get little credit.Conversely, when they screw up they are endlessly bashed for it. These guys are undoubtedly important for a team, though, and having reliable ones is an underrated advantage.
That's made pretty clear with long snappers. Seemingly every year, we see games which get decided by mistakes made by the snapper on kick attempts. Maybe the snap timing is wrong, causing the subsequent setup and attempt to be rushed or not even get kicked off the ground. Sometimes the placement is off, causing a domino effect of errors to each following step of the process. The snapper may also find himself unable to lock in for a proper block after his snap, allowing a defender to get the leverage necessary to either get past him or throw his hands up for a block attempt.
With Harris, that has never seemed to be an issue. In 2009, he was brought in specifically to take over for a player (Brad St. Louis) who had been key in three botched field goals and two botched extra points in the first five games of that season. Since then, his own career appears unblemished.
While I'm sure he hasn't been perfect in his career with Cincinnati, I've been unable to find any actual examples of an error on his part causing missed attempts. You may not know anything about the guy, but for long snappers that is a good thing; the only time we ever hear about them is when they are at the forefront of an issue. It's safe to assume he'll continue this level going forward.
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Punters almost get their proper due as rarely as long snappers, but their contributions can be just as underratedly valuable. Though they never directly affect scoring for their own team (outside of trick plays, at least), the value they can add through field position is vital.
For example, let's compare a top-level punter to a mid-tier one, based on 2016 statistics. The Rams' Johnny Hekker had a net punting average of 46.0 yards. Meanwhile, the Ravens' Sam Koch averaged 39.9 yards. The difference of 6.1 yards per attempt may not appear significant at first, but take that number across a projection of 100 punts (high-end but possible for a full season's production), Hekker would have 4,600 yards, while Koch would have 3,990.
That's 610 extra yards being provided. For context, that's enough to take the NFL's No. 10-rated offense in 2016 (Indianapolis, with 5,830 yards) down to being the No. 26 offense in the league. More importantly, that's often dozens of drives being pinned back before they start, which increases the possibility for the punting team to receive the ball back — and be in decent field position as well — in short order.
Not every team can have players on the Hekker level, but getting someone who maintains consistency is still a major asset. For the most part, Huber has been just that with Cincinnati.
Throughout his career with the Bengals (2009-present), Huber has consistently been average or better in most major aspects of punting. Leg strength may not be a draw regarding him, but his hangtime and placement are clear weapons for him. Case in point: his gross punt average (yardage covered per punt) has only twice risen above 15th in the league, but his net punt average (yardage including the subsequent return attempt) has only been below that level once while appearing in the top-10 four times.
In terms of the return aspect of things, Huber has been in the bottom half for number of punt returns allowed in five of his eight seasons, and only once has he been in the top 10. In terms of average yardage of those returns, his kicks have also helped hold opposing returners under 8.0 yards per return five out of eight seasons.
There are notable areas of concern with Huber, however.
While placement and hangtime help his net average, it doesn't show up as clearly in other aspects. He's been within the top 10 for touchbacks forced (FYI: while touchbacks are generally good on kickoffs, it tends to help much more to not have them on punts), and he's been only average on pinning teams within the 20 (much more valuable for these plays).
He's also coming off one of his worst seasons overall. His gross punt average rose (ninth), but he fell in net average (14th) while rising in touchback percentage (fourth), return attempts (seventh), and return average (sixth).
This is something to watch, but may end up just being mostly due to randomness. For non-elite punters, fluctuation of this level isn't out of the ordinary. Looking at the other lower-end seasons Huber has had gives hope for a positive uptick as well: in both 2009 and 2013 (his two other lower-end years), Huber made across-the-board improvements in most rankings for the following seasons.
With age not needing to be a worry in this case (due to age not having a dramatic effect overall on punters, and that when it does it tends to hit the area — leg strength — which isn't what Huber's game is built around), there's little reason to expect Huber won't be decently better in 2017 than he was last season.
May 30, 2017; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals kicker Jake Elliott (3) kicks a field goal during the Week 2 OTAs at the Cincinnati Bengals training facility. Mandatory Credit: Sam Greene/Cincinnati Enquirer via USA TODAY NETWORKThe main position to discuss here is, of course, the kickers. While the other specialist spots are practically set in stone with long-time Bengals set to continue on as starters, we have a genuine competition brewing here.
This process was started during last season, when long-time kicker Mike Nugent was let go towards the end of the season. That was done with good reason: while he was still pretty accurate on field goals (23/29), Nugent missed at least one PAT kick in five of his last six games, going only 9-of-15 on those attempts in that time.
With only a few games remaining, the team picked up Randy Bullock to finish the year. He did a manageable job in three games — most importantly, making all of his PAT attempts — but the small sample size can't be relied on by itself. Bullock's leg strength has always been his main draw, but it hasn't really turned into a tangible positive for most of his career.
He started his career by missing 9-of-22 kicks of 40+ yards as a rookie, with Houston ending up with the second-worst field goal percentage for 2013. His Houston teams in 2013-14 (his only full seasons with any team) were 20th and 21st respectively in touchback percentage, and his half-season with the Jets in 2015 was part of a No. 31 ranking for the team in that area.
Clearly, he shouldn't be a long-term answer at the position. Hence, the team was smart to bring in not just one but two new kickers.
The first of the two is the newly drafted Jake Elliott. Some may think his draft spot was too high, but that's thinking too much from a perfect scenario perspective. This team had a clear need for a kicker, and had about a dozen different picks to spend; to not toss a late-round selection at an area of need wouldn't be prudent. More so, to think picking a guy who could be with the team for a decade (and with kickers, that is more likely than just about any position) in the fifth round is a bad move is an erroneous train of thought.
That doesn't even get to Elliott's actual talent. His leg strength may not be great, but he's been pretty automatic on his field goal tries overall throughout his college career (setting the school record for career field goal percentage at Memphis, beating out Stephen Gostkowski) and still managed to get not only the longest kick in school history (56 yards), but also four of the five longest field goals there too. He also made all 202 PATs he attempted in college (a cogent point, since that's what got Nugent canned).
There's some worthwhile comparisons to consider with him. He was in heated competition (relatively; we are talking kickers here) with Zane Gonzalez for who should come off the board first. And though much talk seemed to consider Gonzalez ahead of him leading up to the draft, there has been a decent amount of sentiment afterwards showing that wasn't quite the case. He's also gotten compared to Cairo Santos, a player who had similar size concerns coming into the league, but has gone on to be one of the top kickers league-wide during his three seasons so far. If Elliott is anything close to Santos, that's a coup for Cincinnati.
He should be seen as the frontrunner, but him being the guy isn't yet a foregone conclusion. That's because of Brown.
Brown has actually been around the team for a bit, joining up for some of last year's offseason and then signing a futures contract once the season ended. He's as much the definition of a dark horse contender as there is: former U-17 US National Team soccer player, walk-on kicker at Louisville, eight-hour drives to place-kicking training sessions (per ESPN). He may not have the sort of resume as Elliott, but he has the advantage of spending an offseason with the team already, and none of these kickers has cemented a place on the roster yet.
Also to consider: his background in soccer shouldn't be overlooked. The placement needed for free kicks and scoring goals in soccer (something he did 29 times in two seasons playing at Louisville) does share certain aspects with kicking in football, and looking at some clips of his practice kicks shows a strong, fluid motion with plenty of leg strength.
Between these three guys, there's a solid mix of choices to go with. Bullock brings the experience. Elliott provides the resume. Brown adds an element of the unknown and untapped upside. Short-term (and based on their strengths), it may not be out of the question that we see two kickers stick around even into the season.
The most obvious answer ends with Elliott winning out though, and that would be an excellent outcome. His abilities should help the team take a major rise in the kicking rankings league-wide.
Paired with a bounce-back from Huber and another anonymous showing from Harris (for long snappers, that's a compliment), the production from Cincinnati's specialists should improve in a meaningful way.
