Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons: NFC South tiebreaker scenarios with Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons: NFC South tiebreaker scenarios with Buccaneers

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

Beware Atlanta Falcons fans, a pirate ship has appeared on the horizon. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now tied with the Falcons atop of the NFC South division, or are they?

Tiebreaker implications are often spotlighted when teams have identical records atop of a division. Should the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers finish the season with the same record, the following tiebreaker rules apply.

Caution: Things will get complicated…you may need to take notes. 

Nov 3, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) catches the ball over Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Vernon Hargreaves (28) for a touchdown during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Atlanta Falcons defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43-28. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

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#1. Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Head-to-Head

Atlanta and Tampa Bay split their season series, thus head-to-head is not a factor. That doesn’t go without mentioning how important Thursday Night Football on November 3rd was for the Falcons.  The win gave the birds an extra game of ground and took away the straight-forward tiebreaker from Tampa Bay.

Nov 3, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman (24) runs past Tampa Bay Buccaneers strong safety Chris Conte (23) during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Atlanta Falcons defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43-28. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

#2. Better Divisional Record

Situation: The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the same overall record and split the season series.

In this situation, record against divisional opponents is used to determine what team owns the upper hand. Sorry Tampa fans but the Falcons still sit in first place because of their superior divisional record.

Atlanta’s current superiority within this category is very minuscule as each team has the same amount of divisional losses. The only reason the Bucs trail is because they’ve played one fewer game within the division. Tampa Bay has yet to play the New Orleans Saints twice and the Carolina Panthers at home.

Atlanta finishes the regular season with a trip to Carolina and a home game against New Orleans. It’s imperative the birds win both of these games. A slip-up could give Tampa Bay the edge in this tiebreaker scenario.

Still, the Bucs having to play the Saints twice in the next three weeks works in Atlanta’s favor.  It’s incredibly difficult to beat any NFL team, let alone a division rival, twice in that short of a span.

#3. Common Games Tiebreaker

Situation: The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers finish with the same overall record and the same divisional record. 

In this situation, the spotlight shines on the record against common opponents played, if both teams have played a minimum of four common opponents. You may need to read that again. In any event, this tiebreaker would apply as both the Falcons and Buccaneers play more than four common opponents.

    All of the: Cardinals, Rams, Broncos, 49ers, Raiders, Chiefs, Seahawks and Chargers, appear on the Atlanta and Tampa Bay schedules. The Bucs have completed all games against these common opponents with a 4-4 record. The Falcons’ record against the group is 3-3, but games against Los Angeles and San Francisco are yet ahead.

    Beating L.A. and San Francisco over the next two weeks would move Atlanta to 5-3 against common opponents and ahead of Tampa Bay in this tiebreaker.

    Nov 3, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Atlanta Falcons tackle Jake Matthews (70) blocks as Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive end Noah Spence (57) defends during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Atlanta Falcons defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43-28. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

    #4. Conference Record

    Situation: The Falcons and Buccaneers finish with the same overall record, divisional record, and record against common opponents.

    Atlanta would have to go 3-1 in their final four games to get to this point. Not to mention, 1 of those losses would have to be to the Rams or 49ers.

    Also within this scenario, Tampa Bay finishes 3-1 with a loss at Dallas. Both teams are then 10-6 overall with an identical head-to-head, 5-1 divisional record, and both are 4-4 vs. common opponents. That would bring Atlanta to the 4th tiebreaker of record vs. NFC opponents.

    The Falcons’ overall record against the NFC would be 8-4. Tampa Bay’s overall record against the NFC would be… you guessed it, 8-4.

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    At this point things are very convoluted. It would be pretty incredible to get beyond this tiebreaker scenario, but it’s theoretically possible if:

      So then what?

      Nov 3, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) drops back against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Atlanta Falcons defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43-28. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

      #5. Strength of Victories

      Situation: The Falcons and Buccaneers finish with the same overall record, divisional record, conference record, and record against common opponents.

      Things now come down to overall winning percentage (or record) of the teams Atlanta and Tampa Bay have defeated.

      Out of curiosity, we’ll examine this as if the Falcons finish 3-1, with a loss at L.A, and the Bucs finish 3-1, with a loss at Dallas:

        Okay, back to reality where Atlanta holds advantage. The win percentage of opponents Atlanta has beaten is stronger than those on Tampa Bay’s resume. Of course there’s a lot of football left to be played, and things can change.

        Green Bay’s resurgence and Oakland’s warpath of destruction bodes well for the Falcons, but Kansas City’s victory on Thursday Night Football was less than ideal for the birds.

        Nov 3, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Mike James (25) is tackled by Atlanta Falcons strong safety Keanu Neal (22) during the second half of a football game at Raymond James Stadium. The Falcons won 43-28. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

        #6. Strength of Schedule

        Situation: The Falcons and Buccaneers finish with the same overall record, divisional record, conference record, record against common opponents, and an identical strength of victories.

        Once against we’ll map this out as if the Falcons finish 3-1, with a loss at L.A, and the Bucs finish 3-1, with a loss at Dallas:

          Things aren’t promising for Atlanta if it goes this far. If the above were to become reality, then Dallas (12-1) showing up on Tampa Bay’s schedule is likely the final nail in Atlanta’s coffin. There are a few more tiebreakers the NFL has left in reserve before complete chaos results in a simple coin toss. We’ll save that discussion for another article on another day.

          Hopefully this discussion is null and void when the Falcons choose the easiest path by winning out and finishing 11-5.

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