New England Patriots

AFC Championship 2017: 5 Bold Predictions for Steelers vs Patriots

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 7:54 p.m. ET

Fansided, Cody Williams/FanSided via NFL Spin Zone

Five bold predictions for the Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots matchup in the 2017 AFC Championship Game.

What started with six teams out of the AFC has now dwindled to two. The New England Patriots will play host to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday in the 2017 AFC Championship Game. Both teams are quite familiar with this position and with Super Bowl berths, but that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t enjoy a trip to Houston in two weeks time.

For both the Patriots and Steelers, the 2016 season likely wasn’t their ideal version. The Patriots started the season with four games of Tom Brady suspended and sitting on the sidelines. However, they survived that stretch with a 3-1 record and then only improved once their future Hall-of-Fame quarterback got back under-center.

Meanwhile, the Steelers seemed mediocre through the first half of the regular season, but then flipped the switch and got things rolling with a season-ending winning streak that’s carried on into the playoffs. They’d love for it to carry them at least one game further as they head into Sunday’s contest to decide the AFC Champion.

When these two teams met in the regular season, Ben Roethlisberger was out injured and the Patriots rolled to a comfortable victory. However, Big Ben is back now, so will the result be any different? We’ll see, but here are five bold predictions for the AFC title game with both team’s eyeing Super Bowl 51.

Jan 14, 2017; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) is sacked by Houston Texans outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus (59) during the first half in the AFC Divisional playoff game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

5. Tom Brady Throws Two Interceptions Again

Particularly in the first half, there were many surprising things in New England’s win against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round. Ultimately they pulled out a spread-covering 18-point win, but they hardly looked convincing from kickoff-to-triple-zeroes. Perhaps the biggest surprise in all of this, though, was Tom Brady turning the ball over.

Faced with the immense pressure that the Texans can create, Brady matched his regular season total of two interceptions in just one game. While the Steelers won’t be generating the same type of rush, their blitz schemes and ability to generate pressure through the interior of opposing offensive lines should allow them to get after Brady. As such, I think Brady again throws two interceptions at home against Pittsburgh.

Granted, Pittsburgh doesn’t have the same level of talent in their secondary or up front that Houston does. However, that’s not particularly the key to forcing Brady into mistakes. As is the case with most quarterbacks, Brady likes to be kept clean and not hurried. If that changes, he can still get frustrated even at this point in his career—even the all-time greats have their flaws. I have faith in the Steelers defense to be able to blitz effectively and force the Patriots signal-caller into mistakes that culminate in turnovers.

Jan 8, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell (26) runs onto the field during player introductions prior to the Steelers’ game against the Miami Dolphins in the AFC Wild Card playoff football game at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

4. Le’Veon Bell Breaks Yards from Scrimmage Record

Coming into the AFC Championship Game, the Steelers have won eight-straight games (six regular season, two postseason). It’s no mistake that Le’Veon Bell has been lights-out over that run. In fact, the Pittsburgh running back has only been held under 110 yards rushing in one of those eight games (93 yards in Week 16). That run also includes a 236-yard showing in Week 15 where he finished with 298 yards from scrimmage and 337 rushing yards through two playoff games.

I think he puts all of that to shame against the Patriots on Sunday.

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In the first meeting between these two teams (again, with Landry Jones at quarterback for the Black and Yellow), Bell was the workhorse as he finished with 21 carries for 81 yards to go with 10 receptions for 68 yards. With Roethlisberger back in the fold and with Bell being in the zone right now, though, I think he’s able to absolutely shred this fraudulent Patriots defense.

When you look at the yardage totals for the Patriots defense, it’s impressive at some places and at least respectable at others. However, you could argue that this defense has only played two offenses at full-strength that were any kind of quality. Those two games included a Week 1 escape against the Arizona Cardinals and then their Week 10 Sunday Night Football loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

In essence, they’ve never had to account for the weapons that the Steelers can throw at them with Big Ben at the helm. That allows Bell to be both patient as a runner–which is when he’s at his most effective–in addition to allowing him to make a dent as a receiver out of the backfield. And, in the end, he winds up breaking Keith Lincoln’s all-time playoff record for yards from scrimmage (329) that has stood since 1964 in the AFL days.

(Note: The post-merger record is 257 yards, set by Anthony Carter in 1988.)

Jan 14, 2017; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski (3) kicks the extra point against the Houston Texans in the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

3. Patriots Kick More Field Goals Than They Score Touchdowns

The fact that the Steelers were able to get by the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round while not finding the end zone once remains incredible. That’s just not the winning formula in the postseason first of all, but it’s also shocking to see an offense as potent as theirs be limited to just six field goals with no touchdowns. In the AFC Championship Game, though, I think it’s the Patriots that wind up settling for more field goals than they’d like to.

As we talked about in regards to the bold prediction that Brady will throw another pair of picks on Sunday, the Steelers have been great this season in regards to generating pressure up the middle. When they’re able to do that, they can control opposing offenses and it’s a big reason why they’ve succeeded on that side of the ball of late. The biggest reason as to why that’s the case, though, is their red zone defense. Pittsburgh has been fantastic at bending-but-not-breaking all season when they allow opponents inside the 20-yard line.

Many football fans have been waiting for the moment that the absence of Rob Gronkowski rears its head for the Patriots and I think this is the week. Though the likes of Martellus Bennett, Dion Lewis, and James White are big weapons when New England gets in close, they aren’t the ace in the hole that Gronk serves as. Therefore, I can see their offense looking quite un-Patriots like throughout this game and being forced to take the three points rather than putting up sixes.

Jan 8, 2017; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown (84) runs with the ball en route to a touchdown against the Miami Dolphins in the AFC Wild Card playoff football game at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

2. Steelers Score 24 First-Half Points

While Pittsburgh struggled both out of the gates and throughout the entire 60 minutes in the Divisional Round in regards to finding rhythm on offense, that wasn’t the case in the Wild Card Round. Courtesy of Antonio Brown, the Steelers got off to a red-hot start that set the tone for the game and got their offense humming in a big way. Their offense has the weapons and explosiveness for that type of start every time they take the field—and I think the Patriots fall victim to it.

The Patriots defense has been quite solid in the first half in regards to their splits. However, we’ve already covered the fact that they haven’t played a team with an offense as potent as the Steelers’ when Pittsburgh is at full strength. All it takes is a screen with one good block for both Brown and Bell and they’re gone. And that doesn’t even factor in a deep threat like Eli Rogers who has the potential to get loose downfield and burn the coverage. Their reputation precedes them, but Pittsburgh can strike, strike quickly, and strike against anyone.

All of this is to say that they get off to a quick start against this Patriots team. All week, head coach Mike Tomlin is going to be preaching the idea of not letting New England control the action at home. What better way for him and his team to make sure that’s not possible than by throwing haymakers right after the opening kickoff? Pittsburgh manages to do just that, putting 24 points on the board in 30 minutes.

Oct 23, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell (26) rushes the ball as New England Patriots outside linebacker Rob Ninkovich (50) defends during the fourth quarter at Heinz Field. New England won 27-16. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

1. Patriots Lose By Double-Digits

The Patriots are favored in this matchup and rightfully so. They have the better record than the Steelers, have been more consistent throughout the regular season, are playing at home, and they have Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in their corner. All of that is a recipe for New England being favorites in the AFC Championship Game. And yet, I don’t think it matters who the favorite is when the game ends.

Despite the fact that Brady doesn’t wear Black and Gold, the Steelers present a tough matchup for what this Patriots team actually is. Don’t let the reputation or record fool you into thinking that they’re the juggernauts of old. They aren’t. This is a flawed football team with the potential to really have trouble if the Steelers blitz creatively at their weak spots on the interior and then that can get burned by the likes of Big Ben, Bell, and Brown.

Though it’s crazy to say that one player makes the difference, I might feel differently about his matchup if Gronkowski were playing. He’s that much of a difference-maker in a game like this as I don’t think the Patriots offense now has enough to keep up with a Steelers offense that I don’t believe New England will have much success stopping. When everyone’s shaking hands, the results are going to shock some people. Pittsburgh is going to dominate and advance to Super Bowl 51 by 10 points or more.