New England Patriots

According to Harvard, the Dolphins, not Patriots, are best team in AFC

Published Jul. 22, 2015 2:56 p.m. ET

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Predicting who will win any given NFL game is hard enough, never mind trying to pick the best team in a conference in July. But fear not, the brains at Harvard University have figured out a way to pick the strongest teams and the weakest. According to a Harvard study, the Miami Dolphins -- not the New England Patriots -- are not only the best team in the AFC East, but they're the team to beat in all of the AFC.

The Dolphins check in at third on the list, behind only the first-place Seattle Seahawks and the Green Bay Packers. Surprised? Confused? Probably. I sure am. Not only are the Dolphins the best team in the AFC, but the AFC East as a whole is the best division in football, with four teams in the top-10.

The Patriots are ranked fifth, with the New York Jets eighth and the Buffalo Bills 10th. I'm not so sure I'd put the Bills or Jets above the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, and the Pittsburgh Steelers, among others. But I guess that's why I'm not at Harvard doing studies such as this one.

As far as how the Harvard intellect came to this conclusion, you'll have to read his formula:

"The method that I came up with uses Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value statistic, the site’s best measure of trying to tease out individual talent. Then, using ESPN’s NFL depth charts, I aggregated each team’s per game approximate value of what I considered to be the 'core' makeup of an NFL team: QB, RB, 2 WR, TE, Top 2 OL, the Top-4 'Front Seven' defensive players, and the Top-2 players from the secondary."

So essentially, it's a measure of the value of the team's best players, which does in fact make sense. The players that have the biggest impact on each game are the ones listed in the study.

For the full list of teams in order, check out the study here. Just as a precautionary warning, the list may surprise you.

(h/t Harvard Sports Analysis)

Photo Credit: Robert Mayer/USA Today Sports