It's a great week to wager on rookie QBs (and more)
A word of warning, gambling friends: We could be in for a weird Week 8.
Six teams have their byes, so we're down to just 13 games on the slate to start. A ton of West Coast teams travel east for early games, which can make for some sloppy football. There's a pretty awful Thursday night game on the docket, plus another game in London. And the biggest matchup of the week features two rookie quarterbacks.
Sounds like a fun week for betting if you ask me. We went 9-6 in Week 7, bringing our overall record on the year to 61-42-3. Without further delay, let's get to the picks.
(Lines courtesy of Bovada.com as of 10/26, except for Jets-Browns and Patriots-Bills, which were unlisted. For those games, we went with the Westgate SuperBook. Pick listed first, with home team in all caps.)
TITANS (-3.5) over Jaguars (Over/under: 44)
There's a lot of really bad quarterback play in the NFL these days.
In related news, you have a chance to wager against Blake Bortles on Thursday night.
Getty ImagesGetty Images
BENGALS (-3) over Redskins (Over/under: 47)
If Josh Norman were 100 percent, I'd probably take Washington here. Assuming he's stil feeling the effects of a concussion on Sunday, though, Cincinnati's passing offense makes the Bengals the pick.
Seahawks (-3) over SAINTS (Over/under: 48)
I'm counting on Seattle's defense to keep Drew Brees in check and give a hobbled Russell Wilson enough chances with a short field to lead the Seahawks to a win.
Getty ImagesGetty Images
Jets (-2.5) over BROWNS (Over/under: 43.5)
"Bet against Ryan Fitzpatrick" meets "Always bet against the Browns." The deciding factor: New York's running attack.
Chiefs (-3) over COLTS (Over/under: 50)
Andrew Luck looked like his old self against the Titans last week, which means the play for Week 8 is to bet on regression from the Colts QB.
Getty ImagesJeff Zelevansky
Lions (+2.5) over TEXANS (Over/under: 45)
Detroit has the worst defense in the league by DVOA; Houston has the worst offense. The Lions can't run the ball; the Texans can't stop opposing rushers. Matthew Stafford has been solid this year; Houston's strength is its pass defense. In a game that seems right down the middle, take the points.
Patriots (-6.5) over BILLS (Over/under: 47)
Bill Belichick remembers what the Bills did in Week 4, and he will have his vengeance.
Cardinals (+3) over PANTHERS (Over/under: 47.5)
Carolina's sieve-like defense offers a nice reprieve for Arizona after last week's slugfest with the Seahawks, while Cam Newton will have his hands full against the Cardinals defense.
Raiders (+1) over BUCCANEERS (Over/under: 49.5)
There are very few teams the Bucs should be favored over. The Raiders are not one of those teams, despite their defensive deficiencies.
Chuck CookChuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
Chargers (+5.5) over BRONCOS (Over/under: 43.5)
Philip Rivers is one of the few QB who can expose Denver's one defensive weakness, as he did in Week 6: Short, quick throws in the middle of the field. This game should stay close until the end.
Thearon W. HendersonGetty Images
FALCONS (-3) over Packers (Over/under: 53)
Julio Jones and the Atlanta passing game are set to feast against Green Bay's depleted secondary. The only question is whether Aaron Rodgers can exploit the Falcons defense in retaliation.
Getty ImagesScott Cunningham
COWBOYS (-4.5) over Eagles (Over/under: 43.5)
Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz will get all the attention, but this game comes down to the Cowboys offensive line. They all do for Dallas, really.
Tim HeitmanUSA TODAY Sports
Vikings (-6.5) over BEARS (Over/under: 40.5)
Jay Cutler's return for Chicago should give the Vikings plenty of reason to jump for joy on Monday night.